Fantasy Index

header banner img
OUR FANTASY BASEBALL MAGAZINE IS BACK! PRE-ORDER NOW
Win here.

Andy Richardson

Top 5 Draft Picks

How often do teams get it right?

It's draft day, and 32 college players will be first-round picks by the end of it. Seemed like a good day to take a look at the premium selections -- top-5 picks -- from the last 10 years, and see how often those guys have gone on to be stars. It's not as pretty as you might expect.

Even with all the scouting and analysis available, teams picking atop the NFL Draft are still getting it wrong more often than not. Rarely, for example, are the players selected No. 1 overall better than the ones drafted No. 4 or No. 5. And all too often those selections just don't wind up being very good.

There's a subjective quality to this exercise, but I don't see a ton of uncertainty, either. Looking at the top 5 picks from the last decade -- 50 players in total -- I see only three occasions where the player drafted No. 1 overall was actually the best of those five picks. Three times he wasn't even one of the top two.

Six times out of 10, the best player in those top 5 draft picks was selected at either No. 4 or No. 5. I don't think it's even debatable. You've got Myles Garrett, Chase Young and the Bosas drafted in the top 3 picks, but the other best players (so far) were all 4th or 5th selections: Lane Johnson, Khalil Mack, Jalen Ramsey, Brandon Scherff, Ezekiel Elliott, JaMarr Chase (if we're ready to call that one).

Early returns are good on Joe Burrow, of course, and it's too soon to say about Trevor Lawrence. But based on the last 10 years, the best player selected in the top 5 picks tonight looks more likely to be drafted 4th or 5th as 1st or 2nd. Sorry, Jaguars and Lions fans.

In the table, my opinion as to the best player of the top 5 picks each year is in bold, 2nd-best in italics. I don't think it's wrong to say that more than half of these players have been disappointments. An inexact science, even at the very top of the draft.

TOP 5 DRAFT PICKS, 2012-2021
YearPkPosPlayerTeamComment
20211QBTrevor LawrenceJaguarsToo soon to say
20212QBZach WilsonJetsEarly returns not great
20213QBTrey Lance49ersUnknown
20214TEKyle PittsFalconsLooks like a star
20215WRJa'Marr ChaseBengalsAlready a star
20201QBJoe BurrowBengalsJust went to Super Bowl
20202DEChase YoungRedskinsGame changing defender
20203CBJeff OkudahLionsInjury-marred two seasons
20204OTAndrew ThomasGiantsDisappointment so far
20205QBTua TagovailoaDolphinsDisappointment so far
20191QBKyler MurrayCardinalsGood; great to be determined
20192DENick Bosa49ersGame changing defender
20193DTQuinnen WilliamsJetsGood; great to be determined
20194DEClelin FerrellRaidersBust
20195LBDevin WhiteBuccaneersHighly productive tackler
20181QBBaker MayfieldBrownsEarly promise, but a disappointment
20182RBSaquon BarkleyGiantsTalented, but disappointing last two seasons
20183QBSam DarnoldJetsBust
20184CBDenzel WardBrownsStar
20185DEBradley ChubbBroncosDisappointment so far
20171DEMyles GarrettBrownsStar
20172QBMitchell TrubiskyBearsBust so far
20173DESolomon Thomas49ersBust
20174RBLeonard FournetteJaguarsGood player
20175WRCorey DavisTitansGood, but a disappointment
20161QBJared GoffRamsGood but not great
20162QBCarson WentzEaglesNice start, disappointing and controversial since
20163DEJoey BosaChargersPerennial Pro Bowler
20164RBEzekiel ElliottCowboysGreat for a lot of years
20165CBJalen RamseyJaguarsShutdown corner
20151QBJameis WinstonBuccaneersUp and down career
20152QBMarcus MariotaTitansDisappointment
20153LBDante Fowler Jr.JaguarsJourneyman pass rusher
20154WRAmari CooperRaidersVery good wide receiver
20155OGBrandon ScherffRedskinsElite guard
20141DEJadeveon ClowneyTexansJourneyman pass rusher
20142OTGreg RobinsonRamsDisappointment
20143QBBlake BortlesJaguarsBust
20144WRSammy WatkinsBillsInjury-prone disappointment
20145LBKhalil MackRaidersStar
20131OTEric FisherChiefsGood tackle
20132OTLuke JoeckelJaguarsBust
20133DEDion JordanDolphinsBust
20134OTLane JohnsonEaglesHall of Famer
20135DEEzekiel AnsahLionsGood player
20121QBAndrew LuckColtsTalented, but heart wasn't in it
20122QBRobert Griffin IIIRedskinsRookie season great, but…
20123RBTrent RichardsonBrownsBust
20124OTMatt KalilVikingsDecent tackle, but career fizzled
20125WRJustin BlackmonJaguarsBust

--Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index