It's draft day, and 32 college players will be first-round picks by the end of it. Seemed like a good day to take a look at the premium selections -- top-5 picks -- from the last 10 years, and see how often those guys have gone on to be stars. It's not as pretty as you might expect.
Even with all the scouting and analysis available, teams picking atop the NFL Draft are still getting it wrong more often than not. Rarely, for example, are the players selected No. 1 overall better than the ones drafted No. 4 or No. 5. And all too often those selections just don't wind up being very good.
There's a subjective quality to this exercise, but I don't see a ton of uncertainty, either. Looking at the top 5 picks from the last decade -- 50 players in total -- I see only three occasions where the player drafted No. 1 overall was actually the best of those five picks. Three times he wasn't even one of the top two.
Six times out of 10, the best player in those top 5 draft picks was selected at either No. 4 or No. 5. I don't think it's even debatable. You've got Myles Garrett, Chase Young and the Bosas drafted in the top 3 picks, but the other best players (so far) were all 4th or 5th selections: Lane Johnson, Khalil Mack, Jalen Ramsey, Brandon Scherff, Ezekiel Elliott, JaMarr Chase (if we're ready to call that one).
Early returns are good on Joe Burrow, of course, and it's too soon to say about Trevor Lawrence. But based on the last 10 years, the best player selected in the top 5 picks tonight looks more likely to be drafted 4th or 5th as 1st or 2nd. Sorry, Jaguars and Lions fans.
In the table, my opinion as to the best player of the top 5 picks each year is in bold, 2nd-best in italics. I don't think it's wrong to say that more than half of these players have been disappointments. An inexact science, even at the very top of the draft.
TOP 5 DRAFT PICKS, 2012-2021 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Pk | Pos | Player | Team | Comment |
2021 | 1 | QB | Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars | Too soon to say |
2021 | 2 | QB | Zach Wilson | Jets | Early returns not great |
2021 | 3 | QB | Trey Lance | 49ers | Unknown |
2021 | 4 | TE | Kyle Pitts | Falcons | Looks like a star |
2021 | 5 | WR | Ja'Marr Chase | Bengals | Already a star |
2020 | 1 | QB | Joe Burrow | Bengals | Just went to Super Bowl |
2020 | 2 | DE | Chase Young | Redskins | Game changing defender |
2020 | 3 | CB | Jeff Okudah | Lions | Injury-marred two seasons |
2020 | 4 | OT | Andrew Thomas | Giants | Disappointment so far |
2020 | 5 | QB | Tua Tagovailoa | Dolphins | Disappointment so far |
2019 | 1 | QB | Kyler Murray | Cardinals | Good; great to be determined |
2019 | 2 | DE | Nick Bosa | 49ers | Game changing defender |
2019 | 3 | DT | Quinnen Williams | Jets | Good; great to be determined |
2019 | 4 | DE | Clelin Ferrell | Raiders | Bust |
2019 | 5 | LB | Devin White | Buccaneers | Highly productive tackler |
2018 | 1 | QB | Baker Mayfield | Browns | Early promise, but a disappointment |
2018 | 2 | RB | Saquon Barkley | Giants | Talented, but disappointing last two seasons |
2018 | 3 | QB | Sam Darnold | Jets | Bust |
2018 | 4 | CB | Denzel Ward | Browns | Star |
2018 | 5 | DE | Bradley Chubb | Broncos | Disappointment so far |
2017 | 1 | DE | Myles Garrett | Browns | Star |
2017 | 2 | QB | Mitchell Trubisky | Bears | Bust so far |
2017 | 3 | DE | Solomon Thomas | 49ers | Bust |
2017 | 4 | RB | Leonard Fournette | Jaguars | Good player |
2017 | 5 | WR | Corey Davis | Titans | Good, but a disappointment |
2016 | 1 | QB | Jared Goff | Rams | Good but not great |
2016 | 2 | QB | Carson Wentz | Eagles | Nice start, disappointing and controversial since |
2016 | 3 | DE | Joey Bosa | Chargers | Perennial Pro Bowler |
2016 | 4 | RB | Ezekiel Elliott | Cowboys | Great for a lot of years |
2016 | 5 | CB | Jalen Ramsey | Jaguars | Shutdown corner |
2015 | 1 | QB | Jameis Winston | Buccaneers | Up and down career |
2015 | 2 | QB | Marcus Mariota | Titans | Disappointment |
2015 | 3 | LB | Dante Fowler Jr. | Jaguars | Journeyman pass rusher |
2015 | 4 | WR | Amari Cooper | Raiders | Very good wide receiver |
2015 | 5 | OG | Brandon Scherff | Redskins | Elite guard |
2014 | 1 | DE | Jadeveon Clowney | Texans | Journeyman pass rusher |
2014 | 2 | OT | Greg Robinson | Rams | Disappointment |
2014 | 3 | QB | Blake Bortles | Jaguars | Bust |
2014 | 4 | WR | Sammy Watkins | Bills | Injury-prone disappointment |
2014 | 5 | LB | Khalil Mack | Raiders | Star |
2013 | 1 | OT | Eric Fisher | Chiefs | Good tackle |
2013 | 2 | OT | Luke Joeckel | Jaguars | Bust |
2013 | 3 | DE | Dion Jordan | Dolphins | Bust |
2013 | 4 | OT | Lane Johnson | Eagles | Hall of Famer |
2013 | 5 | DE | Ezekiel Ansah | Lions | Good player |
2012 | 1 | QB | Andrew Luck | Colts | Talented, but heart wasn't in it |
2012 | 2 | QB | Robert Griffin III | Redskins | Rookie season great, but… |
2012 | 3 | RB | Trent Richardson | Browns | Bust |
2012 | 4 | OT | Matt Kalil | Vikings | Decent tackle, but career fizzled |
2012 | 5 | WR | Justin Blackmon | Jaguars | Bust |
--Andy Richardson