It was a big night for wide receiver aficionados. Six were drafted in the top 20 picks for the first time ever, and two more 24-year-olds with 1,000-yard seasons on their resumes were traded for top-25 picks. But with the rookies, few were shocked -- and it's the third straight year at least five were taken in the first round. That's where the top prospects are these days.
There wasn't a ton of consensus as to what order those receivers would go in, nor where they'd end up, or should go in upcoming rookie drafts. And I don't think there is now, either. But I will try to make sense of it all here, taking the players one by one.
Drake London, Falcons. Hey, this is one of my two predictions at the beginning of the week that panned out, the other being Kenny Pickett to Pittsburgh (take that, everyone who was sending Malik Willis there). London had just one year of top production at Southern Cal and won't run away from people, but I like the player and love the landing spot. There is zero chance he's not a Week 1 starter and No. 1 wideout for the Falcons, giving the team a nice 1-2 receiving punch of Kyle Pitts and London. Will Marcus Mariota be their quarterback for long? Atlanta could still draft one today. Regardless, I think London will be the top wide receiver in a lot of rookie drafts, and could scarcely ask for a better landing spot.
Garrett Wilson, Jets. New York taking a wide receiver wasn't surprising; there were rumors of them dealing this pick for Deebo Samuel. Wilson put up strong numbers for two years at Ohio State (his 723 yards and 6 TDs in 2020 were in just 8 games) and arguably should have been the first wide receiver drafted. Hard to love the landing spot with unproven Zach Wilson and two other talented wide receivers in Corey Davis and Elijah Moore, but the wideout produced with two other good pass catchers at Ohio State, and if Zach flops the Jets will bring in someone new.
Chris Olave, Saints. Watching both Ohio State guys last year and on tape this year, I liked Olave a little more than Wilson. And it's easy to like Olave's landing spot more. The Saints obviously love him, having traded away next year's early picks to get into position to be able to move up again here for him (fooling the talking heads who can't stop thinking about quarterbacks -- there are other positions, guys!). I think Olave's gonna be starting with Michael Thomas sooner rather than later and maybe their top receiver right away. Nobody loves Jameis Winston but the guy certainly can sling it, if the team lets him (while accepting the negatives that come with that). Atlanta-New Orleans games could be fun this season.
Jameson Williams, Lions. Yet another trade up, even more talking-head certainty that they were trading up for a quarterback, and then a somewhat shocking selection of a wide receiver who tore his ACL three months ago. I love the player and love the Lions' deciding that they could afford to be patient; this is actually a short-term plus for Amon-Ra St. Brown, who should still be the top wideout in Detroit this year, and potentially a long-term one for Jared Goff. Having said that, Malik Willis is still out there and the Lions could still wind up taking him, if they do in fact like him. But if they don't, and do in fact roll with Jared Goff as their guy for the next couple of years, he's got a legit potential star. Not a guy I'm interested in for re-draft, but I might put him in my top 2 among the rookies in dynasty.
Jahan Dotson, Commanders. Dotson was kind of overshadowed in a lot of pre-draft speculation, but the Penn State speedster (a 4.43 at the combine) is a legit talent who put up big numbers and should step in immediately next to Terry McLaurin (if Washington was going to draft a wideout in the first round, Dotson makes the most sense as a complement rather than replacement for McLaurin, who I expect to get a big payday from Washington this preseason). The dude's not big (5-11, just 178 pounds at the combine), making his likely usage in the slot a mild concern for injury reasons, but looks like a solid enough choice for Washington, in line for a nice rookie season if Carson Wentz is able to turn around his career. Which is a big if.
Treylon Burks, Titans. If you look at pretty much any pre-draft analysis of Burks, the NFL wideout he's most often compared to is...A.J. Brown. The Titans seemingly agree, shipping Brown off to Philadelphia in order to draft a similar prospect who's nearly three years younger and won't require a $100 million contract for a few years. So it's a win, you know, unless Burks isn't as good as Brown, which is certainly possible. Some of these rookies don't hit. Best-case scenario is he's Brown, who Tennessee already had. Worst-case scenario is he's not nearly as good, and Tennessee just made a business decision, and that's it. Hard to love the landing spot. Wondering mildly if the Eagles traded up for Jameson Williams and pivoted to the Brown deal, but that's unlikely -- they couldn't have put this thing together so quickly.
That's it for the rookie wideouts; a few additional notes about last night's skill guys. (I'm not crazy about the term -- playing left tackle isn't a skill? -- but it is what it is.)
Kenny Pickett, Steelers. The Mitch Trubisky Era was fun while it lasted. You have to go back to 2013 (EJ Manuel) to find the last time the first quarterback was selected outside the top 15 picks, and 1997 (Jim Druckenmiller) to find the last time one was selected this late. So that's the history working against Pickett in a quarterback class that was even less desirable than most of the mocks anticipated. Actual discussion of the pick was overshadowed by Booger McFarland and whoever discussing hand size at length. Personally I like the pick for Pittsburgh, and think it's a nice opportunity for Pickett to succeed. The line will be a little better, the team has a quality defense and other skill guys in place on offense, and the organization has some credibility in its analysis and development of youngsters. Didn't understand why some thought they'd select Willis. I think Pickett is probably a Week 1 starter; definitely a first-half-of-the-season starter. Probably not a fantasy option beyond Superflex, but should be OK for the team's other skill guys.
Final thoughts:
Marquise Brown, Cardinals. This is a head scratcher to me. Brown comes off a nice season, but has he been a good enough NFL receiver to merit a first-round pick in exchange? Or the huge contract Arizona will probably have to give him sooner rather than later, while also paying Kyler Murray? Apparently Brown had requested a trade after last season. I'll accept that without really understanding why (Lamar Jackson tweeted "wtf" after the deal was announced). This is an unsurprising acknowledgment by the Cardinals that Rondale Moore isn't a legit No. 2, but a surprising use of a first-rounder, to me anyway. I guess it's a nice upgrade for Hollywood, with Kyler Murray having been more consistent a passer, and the passing game better, than Jackson and Baltimore. But it's hard for me to fully understand this deal. If anyone sees the wisdom for either party, feel free to share.
Green Bay and Kansas City. Neither of the teams that traded their franchise receivers drafted one with either of their first-round picks; instead each opted to select two defensive players. This is not a huge shock -- people ignoring Green Bay's past history deserve to be surprised I guess -- but unexpected. There are still plenty of good wideouts left, including George Pickens, Skyy Moore, Christian Watson and John Metchie, and when one of those guys ends up with the Packers or KC everyone will nod and say how smart those teams were, and move those players ahead of some of the first-round selections. In any case, it's a reminder that teams don't care what draft analysts or fans think they will or should do.
Running backs. No first-round running backs, as I sort of thought might happen, but we'll definitely see a few come off the board tonight. Houston is a reasonable possibility, five picks into the second round, for Breece Hall, but I guess we'll see.
Malik Willis. Some bought into the fantasy that the Lions were going to take him at No. 2. Not only did they not take him there, of course, but they also didn't take him with their second selection in the first round. He's going tonight, probably in the first 5-10 picks (by a team that trades up if not one of those teams), but the fact that a bunch of quarterback-needy teams weren't interested isn't a great sign. This also extends to the guys who it's a lot less surprising weren't first-round picks: Matt Corral, Desmond Ridder, Sam Howell. Yes the NFL has second-round franchise quarterbacks like Derek Carr (and more famously, Favre and Brees). But there are a whole lot more Drew Lock, Geno Smith types. In general, teams do not let quarterbacks out of the first round if they believe their chances of NFL success are good.
--Andy Richardson