Report out of Saints OTAs has Jameis Winston moving with a noticeable limp at practices. It's not surprising, with Winston having torn his ACL midseason last year, but it's an update that casts doubt on him being some kind of 2022 sleeper. As does his 2021 production.

I understand the sentiment that perhaps he could be a value on draft day. The guy threw for 5,109 yards back in 2019, something that isn't talked about nearly as much as his 30 interceptions that season. Maybe that kind of production is still hidden in Winston's arm, and he could deliver some solid numbers this season. The Saints should have a dramatically improved receiving corps over last season, assuming a return to health of Michael Thomas, and having added Jarvis Landry in free agency and Chris Olave in the draft.

But I think 2019 is a long time ago. In 2021, Winston was one of the least productive passers in the NFL. Lesser receiving corps, sure, but that wasn't all of it. The Saints didn't want him throwing the ball much, and it requires a leap of faith to think it will be much different this year. Even if he's healthy.

Table shows passing yards per game for all quarterbacks with at least 150 pass attempts in Winston's last two seasons as a starter (2019 in Tampa, 2021 in New Orleans). That earlier version of Winston was the most productive of all the quarterbacks that show up on the list. The more recent Winston is down with Duck Hodges, Jacoby Brissett, and a couple of dual-threat quarterbacks (Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor, Tyler Huntley). With Winston coming off the torn ACL, I think we can safely say his running days are over.

PASSING YARDS PER GAME, 2019 AND 2021
YearPlayerGComAttYdsTDIntYds/G
2019Jameis Winston, T.B.1638062651093330319.3
2021Tom Brady, T.B.1748571953164312312.7
2019Matthew Stafford, Det.81872912499195312.4
2019Dak Prescott, Dall.1638859649023011306.4
2019Matt Ryan, Atl.1540861644662614297.7
2021Justin Herbert, LAC1744367250143815294.9
2019Jared Goff, LAR1639462646382216289.9
2019Philip Rivers, LAC1639059146152320288.4
2021Joe Burrow, Cin.1636652046113414288.2
2019Patrick Mahomes, K.C.143194844031265287.9
2021Matthew Stafford, LAR1740460148864117287.4
2021Patrick Mahomes, K.C.1743665848393713284.6
2021Derek Carr, L.V.1742862648042314282.6
2021Dak Prescott, Dall.1641059644493710278.1
2019Drew Brees, N.O.112813782979274270.8
2021Kyler Murray, Ariz.1433348137872410270.5
2019Andy Dalton, Cin.1331452834941614268.8
2021Kirk Cousins, Min.163725614221337263.8
2021Josh Allen, Buff.1740964644073615259.2
2021Aaron Rodgers, G.B.163665314115374257.2
2019Russell Wilson, Sea.163415164110315256.9
2019Deshaun Watson, Hou.1533349538522612256.8
2019Kyle Allen, Car.1330348933221716255.5
2021Jimmy Garoppolo, S.F.1530144138102012254.0
2019Tom Brady, N.E.163736134057248253.6
2019Derek Carr, Oak.163615134054218253.4
2019Carson Wentz, Phil.163886074039277252.4
2019Aaron Rodgers, G.B.163535694002264250.1
2019Jimmy Garoppolo, S.F.1632947639782713248.6
2019Kirk Cousins, Min.153074443603266240.2
2021Lamar Jackson, Balt.1224638228821613240.2
2019Baker Mayfield, Cle.1631753438272221239.2
2019Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mia.1531150235292013235.3
2021Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt.1639060537402210233.8
2019Gardner Minshew, Jac.142854703271216233.6
2021Matt Ryan, Atl.1737556039682012233.4
2019Daniel Jones, NYG1328445930272412232.8
2019Kyler Murray, Ariz.1634954237222012232.6
2019Sam Darnold, NYJ1327344130241913232.6
2021Jared Goff, Det.143324943245198231.8
2019Ryan Tannehill, Ten.122012862742226228.5
2019Joe Flacco, Den.8171262182265227.8
2021Mac Jones, N.E.1735252138012213223.6
2021Russell Wilson, Sea.142594003113256222.4
2021Daniel Jones, NYG112323612428107220.7
2021Ryan Tannehill, Ten.1735753137342114219.6
2021Teddy Bridgewater, Den.142854263052187218.0
2021Baker Mayfield, Cle.1425341830101713215.0
2021Trevor Lawrence, Jac.1735960236411217214.2
2021Taylor Heinicke, Was.1632149434192015213.7
2021Sam Darnold, Car.122434062527913210.6
2021Jalen Hurts, Phil.152654323144169209.6
2021Carson Wentz, Ind.173225163563277209.6
2019Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.1532651631381710209.2
2019Lamar Jackson, Balt.152654013127366208.5
2021Davis Mills, Hou.1326339426641610204.9
2021Tua Tagovailoa, Mia.1326338826531610204.1
2019Drew Lock, Den.5100156102073204.0
2019David Blough, Det.59417498446196.8
2019Jacoby Brissett, Ind.152724472942186196.1
2019Josh Allen, Buff.162714613089209193.1
2021Trevor Siemian, N.O.61081881154113192.3
2021Andy Dalton, Chi.8149236151589189.4
2021Zach Wilson, NYJ132133832334911179.5
2019Mason Rudolph, Pitt.101762831765139176.5
2019Marcus Mariota, Ten.795160120372171.9
2019Case Keenum, Was.101602471707115170.7
2021Jameis Winston, N.O.7951611170143167.1
2021Tyrod Taylor, Hou.69115096655161.0
2021Justin Fields, Chi.121592701870710155.8
2021Tyler Huntley, Balt.7122188108134154.4
2019Teddy Bridgewater, N.O.9133196138492153.8
2019Dwayne Haskins, Was.9119203136577151.7
2019Devlin Hodges, Pitt.8100160106358132.9
2021Mike Glennon, NYG690167790410131.7
2021Jacoby Brissett, Mia.11141225128354116.6

I don't think there's much chance of the Dennis Allen-led Saints being anything remotely close to the Bruce Arians Bucs, even assuming Winston is fully healthy. Not a late-round quarterback I'll be considering, and I don't think I'll be throwing darts at any of the receivers, either.

--Andy Richardson