Kyler Murray would like to sign an extension before the start of the season, and I imagine the Cardinals will give it him. But they might have some nervousness about how much money they want to tie up in him at this point.
Other quarterbacks, after all, have received extensions that haven’t aged well, with Jared Goff and Carson Wentz leading the way. And the Browns and Panthers erred in handing out fifth-year options to Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold.
Murray seems to be a better quarterback than all of those guys. He’s entering the final season of a four-year contract worth $35.6 million, and he’s outperformed that deal – averaging $9 million per year at a time where quarterbacks routinely are signing contracts that average over $40 million.
But Murray hasn’t been so dominant that you don’t wonder whether he at some point might regressed into more of a Wentz-Mayfield type of quarterback. He’s tiny, and some defenses have been able to cook up good defenses against him by limiting his ability to scramble – forcing him to work out of the pocket.
And there may be some issues with Kliff Kingsbury and his offensive scheme – seemingly with less ability than other coaches to come up with offensive adjustments. In each of his three seasons, Arizona has fizzled in the second half of the season.
And Murray last year was remarkably bad around the goal line. Inside the 10, he completed only 15 of 38 passes, and with only 7 TDs. He also tossed 2 interceptions and took a sack in that part of the field.
Including 2-point conversions (Murray didn’t throw any), he successfully put the blal in the end zone on only 18 percent of his pass plays inside the 10 last year. Among quarterbacks with at least 30 pass plays, that’s the worst of any quarterback in the last eight years. Chad Henne (2013) and Cam Newton (2012) were the last quarterbacks to finish with even worse passing stats in that part of the field.
In the last five years, 87 quarterbacks have run at least 30 pass plays inside the 10-yard line. Murray (2021 version) was the worst of all of them at putting the ball in the end zone. He was below-average as a rookie (13 of 38), and above-average in 2020 (16 of 40).
Complete numbers are below. These are ones we compile ourselves. The end-zone percentage includes both 2-point conversions (which aren’t official NFL plays) and touchdown passes.
| PASSING INSIDE 10 (last 5 yrs) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Com | Att | TD | 2Pt | EZ% | Int | sack |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 39 | 48 | 29 | 0 | 60.4% | 0 | 0 |
| 2020 | Ryan Tannehill, Ten. | 23 | 34 | 19 | 1 | 57.1% | 1 | 1 |
| 2021 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 27 | 39 | 20 | 2 | 53.7% | 0 | 2 |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 18 | 29 | 16 | 0 | 53.3% | 0 | 1 |
| 2017 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 22 | 35 | 14 | 3 | 48.6% | 0 | 0 |
| 2019 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 21 | 34 | 15 | 1 | 47.1% | 0 | 0 |
| 2020 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 32 | 49 | 21 | 3 | 47.1% | 1 | 2 |
| 2019 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 18 | 32 | 14 | 2 | 47.1% | 0 | 2 |
| 2020 | Kirk Cousins, Min. | 26 | 48 | 18 | 5 | 46.9% | 0 | 1 |
| 2020 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 28 | 47 | 21 | 1 | 46.8% | 3 | 0 |
| 2020 | Tom Brady, T.B. | 31 | 53 | 24 | 0 | 45.3% | 0 | 0 |
| 2018 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 32 | 46 | 19 | 2 | 44.7% | 0 | 1 |
| 2020 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 22 | 34 | 15 | 1 | 44.4% | 0 | 2 |
| 2021 | Kirk Cousins, Min. | 20 | 36 | 16 | 0 | 44.4% | 1 | 0 |
| 2017 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 21 | 37 | 16 | 2 | 43.9% | 0 | 4 |
| 2018 | Cam Newton, Car. | 20 | 30 | 12 | 2 | 43.8% | 0 | 2 |
| 2021 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 35 | 52 | 22 | 1 | 42.6% | 3 | 2 |
| 2021 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 16 | 29 | 13 | 1 | 42.4% | 1 | 4 |
| 2017 | Derek Carr, Oak. | 14 | 31 | 11 | 2 | 41.9% | 0 | 0 |
| 2018 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 19 | 33 | 14 | 1 | 41.7% | 1 | 3 |
| 2019 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 19 | 33 | 14 | 1 | 41.7% | 2 | 3 |
| 2017 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 24 | 46 | 17 | 2 | 41.3% | 0 | 0 |
| 2018 | Philip Rivers, LAC | 27 | 44 | 15 | 4 | 41.3% | 1 | 2 |
| 2020 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 28 | 45 | 19 | 0 | 41.3% | 0 | 1 |
| 2018 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 21 | 34 | 11 | 3 | 41.2% | 0 | 0 |
| 2017 | Jared Goff, LAR | 21 | 33 | 14 | 0 | 41.2% | 0 | 1 |
| 2020 | Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 25 | 44 | 17 | 1 | 40.9% | 0 | 0 |
| 2020 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 16 | 30 | 11 | 2 | 40.6% | 0 | 2 |
| 2019 | Kirk Cousins, Min. | 14 | 29 | 12 | 1 | 40.6% | 1 | 3 |
| 2018 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 27 | 42 | 14 | 3 | 40.5% | 2 | 0 |
| 2020 | • Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 23 | 40 | 16 | 0 | 40.0% | 1 | 0 |
| 2019 | Jimmy Garoppolo, S.F. | 27 | 44 | 16 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 | 1 |
| 2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 14 | 28 | 10 | 2 | 40.0% | 0 | 2 |
| 2018 | Kirk Cousins, Min. | 19 | 35 | 12 | 3 | 39.5% | 0 | 3 |
| 2020 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 21 | 35 | 13 | 2 | 39.5% | 0 | 3 |
| 2021 | Tom Brady, T.B. | 32 | 61 | 24 | 0 | 38.7% | 0 | 1 |
| 2019 | Jared Goff, LAR | 23 | 39 | 15 | 0 | 38.5% | 0 | 0 |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 26 | 47 | 19 | 0 | 38.0% | 0 | 3 |
| 2019 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 22 | 43 | 15 | 2 | 37.8% | 1 | 2 |
| 2018 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 32 | 45 | 16 | 1 | 37.8% | 1 | 0 |
| 2021 | Matthew Stafford, LAR | 30 | 57 | 22 | 1 | 37.7% | 1 | 4 |
| 2021 | Mac Jones, N.E. | 18 | 32 | 10 | 2 | 37.5% | 0 | 0 |
| 2020 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 19 | 40 | 13 | 2 | 37.5% | 1 | 0 |
| 2018 | Jared Goff, LAR | 28 | 51 | 16 | 3 | 37.3% | 2 | 0 |
| 2017 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 18 | 35 | 13 | 1 | 36.8% | 0 | 3 |
| 2020 | Philip Rivers, Ind. | 17 | 28 | 10 | 1 | 36.7% | 0 | 2 |
| 2018 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 12 | 28 | 9 | 2 | 36.7% | 1 | 2 |
| 2020 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 20 | 45 | 16 | 1 | 36.2% | 1 | 2 |
| 2021 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 30 | 60 | 18 | 5 | 35.9% | 1 | 4 |
| 2021 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 29 | 52 | 19 | 0 | 35.8% | 1 | 1 |
| 2017 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 23 | 46 | 15 | 2 | 35.4% | 1 | 2 |
| 2017 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 21 | 30 | 11 | 0 | 34.4% | 0 | 2 |
| 2017 | Joe Flacco, Balt. | 18 | 35 | 11 | 1 | 34.3% | 0 | 0 |
| 2018 | Eli Manning, NYG | 20 | 41 | 13 | 2 | 34.1% | 1 | 3 |
| 2021 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 23 | 44 | 13 | 2 | 34.1% | 0 | 0 |
| 2021 | Teddy Bridgewater, Den. | 15 | 30 | 10 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 | 3 |
| 2021 | Ryan Tannehill, Ten. | 23 | 35 | 12 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 | 4 |
| 2018 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 23 | 46 | 15 | 2 | 33.3% | 0 | 5 |
| 2017 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 18 | 35 | 12 | 0 | 33.3% | 1 | 1 |
| 2019 | Gardner Minshew, Jac. | 19 | 38 | 10 | 3 | 32.5% | 1 | 2 |
| 2019 | Derek Carr, Oak. | 18 | 36 | 12 | 0 | 32.4% | 1 | 1 |
| 2019 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 15 | 32 | 10 | 1 | 32.4% | 1 | 2 |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield, Clev. | 16 | 32 | 10 | 1 | 32.4% | 0 | 2 |
| 2019 | Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 16 | 42 | 13 | 1 | 31.8% | 3 | 2 |
| 2019 | • Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 23 | 38 | 10 | 3 | 31.7% | 1 | 3 |
| 2021 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 30 | 59 | 18 | 1 | 31.7% | 1 | 1 |
| 2021 | Derek Carr, L.V. | 19 | 37 | 12 | 0 | 31.6% | 2 | 1 |
| 2017 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 13 | 31 | 10 | 0 | 31.3% | 1 | 1 |
| 2017 | Philip Rivers, LAC | 21 | 45 | 14 | 0 | 31.1% | 0 | 0 |
| 2021 | Carson Wentz, Ind. | 22 | 42 | 12 | 2 | 31.1% | 1 | 3 |
| 2019 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 25 | 38 | 10 | 2 | 30.8% | 1 | 1 |
| 2018 | Derek Carr, Oak. | 25 | 41 | 11 | 1 | 29.3% | 1 | 0 |
| 2021 | Jimmy Garoppolo, S.F. | 13 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 28.1% | 1 | 1 |
| 2021 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 17 | 40 | 11 | 0 | 27.5% | 0 | 0 |
| 2018 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 16 | 41 | 12 | 0 | 26.7% | 0 | 4 |
| 2018 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 19 | 41 | 12 | 0 | 26.7% | 0 | 4 |
| 2019 | Kyle Allen, Car. | 15 | 34 | 10 | 0 | 26.3% | 1 | 4 |
| 2020 | Derek Carr, L.V. | 25 | 49 | 12 | 1 | 26.0% | 0 | 1 |
| 2020 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 26 | 52 | 13 | 1 | 25.9% | 0 | 2 |
| 2019 | Philip Rivers, LAC | 21 | 38 | 9 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 2 |
| 2018 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 11 | 31 | 8 | 0 | 24.2% | 1 | 2 |
| 2018 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 16 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 22.9% | 1 | 4 |
| 2019 | Andy Dalton, Cin. | 14 | 39 | 8 | 1 | 22.5% | 0 | 1 |
| 2021 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 15 | 36 | 6 | 2 | 22.2% | 1 | 0 |
| 2018 | Case Keenum, Den. | 17 | 38 | 8 | 0 | 20.5% | 3 | 1 |
| 2019 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 20 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 20.4% | 1 | 2 |
| 2021 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 15 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 17.9% | 2 | 1 |
I don’t think there’s any question that Murray will sign a new deal before the start of the season. He’s played well enough that the Cardinals have little choice but to pay him and hope he continues to develop into one of the better starters. He’s been very good at times.
But Murray has had enough struggles that I wonder if there will be some meaningful disagreement on his value. The team probably will try to avoid giving him a deal that moves him up into the same territory as Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes. With unusual leverage, Watson signed a fully guaranteed deal averaging $46 million. If Murray isn’t willing to settle for something less, talks could get contentious.
—Ian Allan