Ripley's Believe It or Not! has been a part of television, radio and print outlets for more than a century. It features wild stories and facts that sound outlandish, but are all true. I always liked the title, because it implied that they really didn't care what you thought about them. You either believed it or you didn't. Whatever. It was true either way, and this guy Ripley had better things to do with his time than try and convince you. That's how I imagined it, anyway.
In fantasy football, there are plenty of narratives coming out of the offseason. The difference is, not all of them are true. Some are totally false, and we'll have to wait until after draft day to find out. In the meantime, your job is to believe it or not, and act accordingly. Either way is fine, but you need to pick a side. If you try to believe it and not believe it, you'll ruin your draft.
What does that mean? It's simple, really. Let's say you don't think Christian McCaffrey is worth the risk. He's been hurt, the Panthers aren't that great and you figure the team will limit him even if he somehow stays on the field. His monster-production days are over, and you wouldn't waste the first pick on him. But it doesn't matter anyway, because you draft seventh.
Then your draft starts, and guess what? McCaffrey is there at seven. Now you have a dilemma, because you could nab a guy who is going #1 overall in other drafts. That's a steal! So you take him, but you’re not sure how to feel about your good fortune. If you made that move, you believed McCaffrey was overrated and you didn't believe it, all at the same time. And that's a problem.
Because if you were right (he's overrated) then you threw away your first-round pick. You also missed out on someone like Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Najee Harris, or whoever else was available at seven. And if you were wrong (he's still a top producer), then you're not following your own beliefs in the very first round. Maybe it pans out that time, but if you keep going against your own strategy, maybe you don't have a strategy at all. You're just picking random guys at a certain tier and hoping it works out, and that doesn't sound like a recipe for winning a title.
I'm not saying you have to be rigid at your draft and never deviate from your strategy. I think the opposite is true: You need to be flexible enough to adjust to the circumstances. But if a guy isn't worth a top-three pick, then he's probably not worth it at six or seven, either. You have exactly one shot at a first-rounder, and the opportunity cost is everyone you could have had at that spot. In the case of McCaffrey, you might think he's worth the risk in the third round, when he'll be available approximately zero percent of the time. You'll definitely miss out on him, but you'll also get a guy who aligns better with your draft philosophy.
The same holds true in later rounds. Let's say you like Matt Ryan in Indianapolis. You've held off on taking a quarterback, or you think he's a top backup and your starter has an injury history. Whatever the reason, you're a believer. When your turn comes up, you realize that Ryan's ADP suggests it's too early to take him, so you go in a different direction. And guess what happens then? He's not there when it comes back to you. You missed out on a player you liked because you didn't want to take him "too early." You believed, and didn't believe, and it cost you.
To be clear, if you like a guy, take him. Don't worry about getting him and getting good value according to projections. You don't take Ryan in the second round, of course. Common sense applies as well. But if you like a guy, and you're at a point in the draft where nobody else looks as good, pull the trigger. You'll go against a cheat sheet, and you might even get a chuckle out of fantasy managers who stick to their lists no matter what. It doesn’t matter. You either believe in a player or you don’t. Not picking a side puts you on the losing side.
We’ve all missed out on players because we waited to long to pull the trigger. We’ve all been tempted by players who fell to our spot, even though we already determined we didn’t buy into their potential that season. But if you think back, your best drafts and best seasons occurred when you had a plan and stuck to your guns. You didn’t get coaxed into taking a player you didn't like who fell to your spot, and you didn’t hesitate to pick a guy you really wanted on your team. Give yourself a chance to win on your terms, with a draft full of guys you like, and none of the guys you don’t.
Please note that I’m not telling you which side to take on a particular player. That’s your job. And if you're not sure how you feel about someone, then it's up to you to assess the risk of being wrong in each round. My job is to help you stick to your own strategy, and avoid the pitfalls that everyone faces at one point or another. I want your guys to reflect your philosophy, even if it goes against conventional wisdom or whatever cheat sheet you’re reading. Have faith in your hunches and your strategy, and let the chips fall where they may. Good luck on draft day.
Have you ever chosen a guy you didn’t really like because the value was too good to resist? How did it work out for you? Have you missed out on a guy you really wanted because you waited an extra round, and regretted it all year? Did it ever work out to your benefit? Share your thoughts below.