MINNESOTA (at Washington)
This is the latest in a string of favorable situations for the Vikings. During their current five-game winning streak they've averaged 29 points and 3.6 touchdowns per game. Washington has allowed just 15 points per game during its three-game win streak, but ...
... all came against flawed or struggling offenses (Bears, Packers, Colts). Minnesota has a good chance at another 3-plus touchdowns here. ... Washington ranks 17th in pass defense, but is probably worse than that. It was in the bottom 10 before facing four straight lesser or struggling passing games (Tennessee, Chicago, Green Bay, Indianapolis), and allowed 10 touchdown passes in its first four. And there's some history for Kirk Cousins, who Washington didn't deem worthy of signing to a multi-year deal five years ago. Cousins has been putting up his usual types of numbers, averaging ...
This report is taken from today's Week 9 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
Haven't ordered yet? BUY IT NOW! Already a subscriber? LOG IN!
... 248 passing yards, and almost exactly 2 TDs per game (13 total in seven contests). He'd be at 260 if you merely remove a weird, defensive-oriented win in Miami where he passed for just 175. Washington doesn't have any playmakers in the secondary (2 interceptions) to cause problems for Cousins, though its pass rush has been above-average (21 sacks). About 260 yards and 2 TDs look like the kind of numbers to expect from him here. ... Justin Jefferson should be very good in this game. Washington has allowed only 1 TD to a wide receiver in the last four games, but the Bears, Titans, Packers and Colts aren't putting anyone on the field comparable to Jefferson. The Lions, Eagles and Cowboys threw 7 TDs to wide receivers in the three previous games, and Minnesota's passing game is a lot more similar to those attacks. Jefferson has fewer than 6 catches in just one game all season, and has put up at least 98 yards in four straight. Adam Thielen is producing at a lower level, but he's been very consistent. He has at least 4 receptions on 7-9 targets in six straight games; 6-plus catches for over 60 yards in half of those. Just 2 TDs, but three scoring grabs (2 TDs and a 2-point conversion) in his last five games. Not the red-zone threat he used to be, but he's still one of Cousins' primary reads. K.J. Osborn rises up with a good game every once in a while; he's had 5 receptions twice, and also has 2 TDs. But he's finished with 25 or fewer yards five times in seven contests, and might see even fewer targets following the team's upgrade at tight end. ... The Vikings traded for T.J. Hockenson (with Irv Smith expected to miss 8-10 weeks with an ankle injury), and that's intriguing. Hockenson caught 8 passes for 179 yard and 2 TDs against Seattle, but the Lions seldom featured him. He otherwise averages just 3 catches per game this season, with 1 TD (against Minnesota, as it happens). It might take him a while to fully learn the playbook, but they'll probably get him involved in the passing game fairly quickly. It won't take much to make a bigger impact than Smith (also averaging 3 catches per game, with 2 TDs). ... Washington has a below-average ranking against the run, though they've generally been better than versus the pass. The Bears ran for over 200 yards, but that's the league's top rushing offense right now. Only two other opponents have reached 125 yards against Washington, which has some talent up front. But that shouldn't be a big problem for Dalvin Cook, who's been held under 80 total yards just once all season, and has scored 5 touchdowns in seven games. Four times he's for rushed for at least 90 yards, and three times he's caught 3-5 passes; he's averaging 96 yards per game (80 run, 16 rec). Washington has allowed only 4 rushing touchdowns, but they've allowed 5 TD receptions by running backs -- 2 more than any other team, and Cook is definitely a candidate for that kind of score. Alexander Mattison has scored 3 TDs in his last five, going for 40 yards and a touchdown last week. But he's not actually playing much, averaging just 6 touches per game -- only valuable if Cook misses time. ... Greg Joseph averages just 6.4 kicking points, disappointing after finishing among the top 10 kickers a year ago. He's missed three of his last four attempts; all from outside 50 yards, but enough to cause from consternation anyway. He's made just 9 field goals on the season. Washington is allowing just 7 per game anyway. ... The Vikings Defense is a big part of the team's success. It has 13 takeaways (7 interceptions and 6 fumble recoveries) and 21 sacks in seven games. Taylor Heinicke has won both his starts, but he'll force some throws. He's thrown an interception in each game (one returned for a touchdown), and had another pass or two where his receiver bailed him out. Just a so-so matchup for sacks, taking 41 in 18 games the past two seasons.