CINCINNATI (vs. Cleveland)
The Bengals have won four straight, with their offense putting up big numbers -- 15 touchdowns and an average of 32 points in those games, mostly against credible defenses. Their worst performance in the last half-season, actually, was against this opponent, ...
... when they managed only 268 total yards and 2 TDs in a 32-13 loss. Cincinnati also struggled in its meaningful game against the Browns a year ago (a 41-16 home loss; Joe Burrow missed the other game), though the 2020 games were higher-scoring (35-30 and 37-34). With Cincinnati healthy and playing very well and the Browns 27th in points allowed, this one looks more likely to be that kind of game. The over-under of 49.5 is one of the higher totals of the week. ... Much was made of Joe Burrow never losing to Kansas City last week; oddly, he's never beaten Cleveland (0-4). There's a first time for everything, though, and win or lose, Burrow should put up good numbers here. (He did in both 2020 losses: 722 passing yards and 7 total touchdowns in those games.) He threw for just 232 yards, but with a couple of touchdowns in the Week 8 loss at Cleveland. The Browns rank 15th against the pass, but are ...
This report is taken from today's Week 14 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... definitely nothing special in this area. They've just been a lot worse defending the run, resulting in several opponents (Falcons, Chargers, Ravens and Bills) just pounding away on the ground, doing less via the pass while winning all of those games. Three different opponents (with quarterbacks a step below Burrow) have thrown for more than 300 yards anyway, and five have thrown multiple touchdowns. Cincinnati should also have a good game running it, but Burrow has been consistently putting up numbers of late. He's passed for at least 270 yards in five of his last seven and thrown multiple touchdowns in five of those, as well. He's also been a willing runner (19 yards per game), especially near the goal line, with rushing touchdowns in five of eight. Thumbs up on Burrow. ... Joe Mixon has missed the last two games due to a concussion, but Zac Taylor indicated he'd clear the protocol this week and be available. The matchup is great, with the Browns just 22nd defending the run, and allowing 16 touchdowns; only two teams have allowed more. The Browns held Cincinnati to just 36 yards in the earlier meeting, but in that one Cincinnati fell way behind early (18-0 early in the third quarter) and ran the ball only 10 times. Neither of those occurrences is likely this week, and more commonly the Browns have been gouged on the ground, allowing at least 160 rushing yards in five of their other eight most recent games. Mixon's not only a runner but receiver; he caught 7 passes in the earlier meeting, and has at least 3 receptions in all 10 games he's played in. He averaged 98 total yards in the two games he played against this defense the previous two seasons, and the Browns were better at the time. On the off chance Mixon has a setback, Samaje Perine would also look pretty good. He's put up 93 and 155 total yards as a starter the last two weeks, with 1 TD. But should play sparingly with Mixon likely to play. ... JaMarr Chase missed the earlier meeting, but he's healthy now. He caught 7 passes for 97 yards in the win over Kansas City, with a sideline catch-and-run where he hurdled a would-be tackler -- appeared in no way limited. Chase also caught 6 passes in his one complete game against this defense a year ago; the Browns don't have anyone likely to slow him down. Tee Higgins maybe won't be quite as good with Chase on the field; he caught only 3 passes last week. But one of those went for a touchdown with an impressive goal-line effort; more of a 1A than a No. 2 in this offense. Higgins also caught a touchdown in the previous meeting; he's scored in three of five. He had 11 catches for 149 yards and a score in his two previous games against this opponent, as well. Tyler Boyd is a tougher sell as the No. 3. Boyd also scored in the previous meeting, but in his last five averages only 40 yards (and that was with Chase sidelined for most of them). He dropped an easy touchdown last week. The Browns have allowed 7 touchdowns to wide receivers in their last five games, so the matchup looks favorable. ... Hayden Hurst (calf) will miss this game, but there shouldn't be a notable fill-in. Mitchell Wilcox caught just 1 pass last week even with Hurst being sidelined early. Hurst himself hasn't been lighting it up even when healthy lately, last scoring in Week 5. The Browns have allowed only 2 touchdowns to tight ends this year. ... Evan McPherson has missed a few too many kicks, but he's been hot lately, right along with this offense. In his last four (all wins) he's averaging 9 points. The Browns are allowing over 8 per game to kickers. ... The Bengals Defense has been a lesser group for fantasy purposes, with just 19 sacks. It has 14 takeaways, but that's still below average. Deshaun Watson, still shaking considerable rust off, looks like a reasonable enough matchup. He can be given at least some blame for a safety last week, and also threw a bad end-zone interception. Just 1 sack, but he only had to attempt 22 passes last week, and things will definitely go differently here. But Cincinnati doesn't do enough to look like a great choice, only a serviceable one.