The performance numbers indicate that the best defensive matchups of the next three weeks are all coming up this weekend. Philadelphia, Minnesota and Kansas City, if past performance correlates with future success, could help lift fantasy teams to wins in playoff games.
This is a technique we use from time to time. You take the performance of each offense, match it up against each defense, and see what the composite numbers say. It’s a way to get a general idea of what’s reasonable to expect in any given game.
Based on those numbers, the Eagles this week will have the best defense that we’ll see through Week 17. They rank near the top in both sacks and takeaways, and they’re playing against an opponent (Chicago) that’s been generous in those areas.
The Eagles thus far have 49 sacks, while the Bears have allowed 42, making for a combined total of 91 (in 26 games), 5 more than in any other game in the near future.
The statistically worst defense matchup of the next three weeks also occurs this week, with Cincinnati at Tampa Bay. The Bengals actually have a good defense, while Tampa Bay’s offense has struggled, but combined I see (in 26 games) only 39 sacks, 15 interceptions, 14 lost fumbles and no touchdowns.
These are not my suggested rankings. They don’t factor in weather, injuries or how teams are currently playing. But it’s one way to get an initial impression. Games ranked using 6 points for touchdowns (scored by defense or special teams), 2 for every turnover and 1 for every sack.
DEFENSIVE MATCHUP AVERAGES (Weeks 15-17) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wk | Defense | Opp | Sack | Int | Fum | TD | Points |
15 | Philadelphia | at Chi. | 91 | 26 | 15 | 5 | 203 |
15 | Minnesota | Ind. | 76 | 26 | 20 | 5 | 198 |
15 | Kansas City | at Hou. | 75 | 24 | 12 | 8 | 195 |
16 | Buffalo | at Chi. | 77 | 24 | 16 | 5 | 187 |
17 | Dallas | at Ten. | 83 | 17 | 21 | 4 | 183 |
17 | New England | at Phil. | 79 | 16 | 15 | 7 | 183 |
17 | Jacksonville | at Hou. | 56 | 26 | 16 | 7 | 182 |
17 | Philadelphia | N.E. | 82 | 26 | 15 | 3 | 182 |
15 | San Francisco | at Sea. | 70 | 23 | 17 | 5 | 180 |
16 | New England | at Cle. | 72 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 180 |
15 | New England | Atl. | 73 | 22 | 16 | 5 | 179 |
16 | Dallas | Phil. | 82 | 14 | 19 | 5 | 178 |
16 | Tennessee | Hou. | 66 | 25 | 10 | 7 | 178 |
17 | NY Giants | Ind. | 75 | 18 | 23 | 3 | 175 |
16 | Denver | at LAR | 78 | 24 | 12 | 4 | 174 |
16 | LA Chargers | at Ind. | 71 | 18 | 18 | 5 | 173 |
15 | Green Bay | LAR | 70 | 23 | 12 | 5 | 170 |
16 | San Francisco | Was. | 73 | 25 | 11 | 4 | 169 |
17 | Miami | at N.O. | 61 | 19 | 14 | 7 | 169 |
15 | Arizona | at Den. | 68 | 16 | 13 | 7 | 168 |
17 | Detroit | Chi. | 68 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 168 |
17 | LA Chargers | LAR | 71 | 17 | 13 | 6 | 167 |
16 | Kansas City | Sea. | 76 | 17 | 16 | 4 | 166 |
17 | Kansas City | Den. | 86 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 166 |
15 | Dallas | at Jac. | 71 | 17 | 21 | 3 | 165 |
17 | Baltimore | Pitt. | 73 | 27 | 13 | 2 | 165 |
17 | NY Jets | at Sea. | 73 | 21 | 13 | 3 | 159 |
17 | Seattle | NYJ | 65 | 21 | 17 | 3 | 159 |
16 | Cleveland | N.E. | 60 | 17 | 14 | 6 | 158 |
17 | San Francisco | at L.V. | 59 | 24 | 10 | 5 | 157 |
15 | Buffalo | Mia. | 63 | 23 | 14 | 3 | 155 |
17 | Buffalo | at Cin. | 73 | 22 | 13 | 2 | 155 |
15 | Baltimore | at Cle. | 66 | 23 | 18 | 1 | 154 |
15 | Seattle | S.F. | 57 | 18 | 18 | 4 | 153 |
16 | Baltimore | Atl. | 67 | 23 | 17 | 1 | 153 |
15 | Atlanta | at N.E. | 50 | 21 | 12 | 6 | 152 |
16 | Minnesota | NYG | 74 | 17 | 16 | 2 | 152 |
17 | Minnesota | at G.B. | 54 | 21 | 16 | 4 | 152 |
17 | Cleveland | at Was. | 64 | 17 | 11 | 5 | 150 |
17 | Atlanta | Ari. | 54 | 20 | 10 | 6 | 150 |
15 | Miami | at Buff. | 61 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 149 |
15 | Carolina | Pitt. | 62 | 23 | 8 | 4 | 148 |
15 | Las Vegas | N.O. | 54 | 21 | 14 | 4 | 148 |
16 | LA Rams | Den. | 68 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 148 |
16 | Philadelphia | at Dall. | 65 | 27 | 11 | 1 | 147 |
16 | Tampa Bay | at Ari. | 75 | 17 | 10 | 3 | 147 |
16 | Seattle | at K.C. | 55 | 22 | 18 | 2 | 147 |
15 | Washington | NYG | 78 | 12 | 16 | 2 | 146 |
17 | Arizona | at Atl. | 52 | 17 | 15 | 5 | 146 |
16 | Cincinnati | at N.O. | 49 | 21 | 15 | 4 | 145 |
16 | Miami | G.B. | 57 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 145 |
15 | Denver | Ari. | 69 | 21 | 10 | 2 | 143 |
16 | Washington | at S.F. | 57 | 14 | 16 | 4 | 141 |
15 | NY Jets | Det. | 58 | 19 | 10 | 4 | 140 |
16 | Jacksonville | at NYJ | 54 | 20 | 17 | 2 | 140 |
17 | Tampa Bay | Car. | 66 | 17 | 11 | 3 | 140 |
16 | Carolina | Det. | 47 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 139 |
17 | Washington | Cle. | 61 | 16 | 17 | 2 | 139 |
15 | Tampa Bay | Cin. | 76 | 16 | 9 | 2 | 138 |
16 | Detroit | at Car. | 54 | 19 | 14 | 3 | 138 |
15 | Detroit | at NYJ | 57 | 19 | 15 | 2 | 137 |
15 | Pittsburgh | at Car. | 53 | 24 | 9 | 3 | 137 |
15 | Cleveland | Balt. | 57 | 15 | 12 | 4 | 135 |
15 | LA Rams | at G.B. | 48 | 18 | 16 | 3 | 134 |
16 | Houston | at Ten. | 64 | 16 | 16 | 1 | 134 |
15 | NY Giants | at Was. | 66 | 15 | 15 | 1 | 132 |
16 | Green Bay | at Mia. | 52 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 130 |
16 | Arizona | T.B. | 42 | 14 | 15 | 5 | 130 |
16 | Atlanta | at Balt. | 47 | 19 | 10 | 4 | 129 |
15 | Tennessee | at LAC | 64 | 16 | 10 | 2 | 128 |
15 | LA Chargers | Ten. | 60 | 10 | 15 | 3 | 128 |
16 | Las Vegas | at Pitt. | 60 | 22 | 9 | 1 | 128 |
16 | NY Jets | Jac. | 62 | 18 | 12 | 1 | 128 |
17 | LA Rams | at LAC | 55 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 127 |
16 | Pittsburgh | L.V. | 48 | 24 | 6 | 3 | 126 |
17 | Indianapolis | at NYG | 76 | 10 | 15 | 0 | 126 |
17 | Cincinnati | Buff. | 49 | 20 | 15 | 1 | 125 |
17 | Denver | at K.C. | 53 | 22 | 13 | 0 | 123 |
17 | Pittsburgh | at Balt. | 55 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 123 |
15 | Houston | K.C. | 50 | 21 | 15 | 0 | 122 |
16 | New Orleans | Cin. | 72 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 122 |
17 | New Orleans | Mia. | 62 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 122 |
17 | Green Bay | Min. | 58 | 19 | 10 | 1 | 122 |
16 | NY Giants | at Min. | 63 | 13 | 16 | 0 | 121 |
16 | Chicago | Buff. | 44 | 20 | 15 | 1 | 120 |
17 | Carolina | at T.B. | 46 | 16 | 12 | 3 | 120 |
16 | Indianapolis | LAC | 63 | 12 | 13 | 1 | 119 |
17 | Las Vegas | S.F. | 49 | 16 | 13 | 2 | 119 |
15 | Indianapolis | at Min. | 66 | 14 | 12 | 0 | 118 |
17 | Houston | Jac. | 52 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 116 |
15 | Jacksonville | Dall. | 39 | 22 | 13 | 1 | 115 |
15 | New Orleans | at L.V. | 57 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 113 |
15 | Chicago | Phil. | 50 | 12 | 13 | 2 | 112 |
17 | Chicago | at Det. | 35 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 111 |
17 | Tennessee | Dall. | 49 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 111 |
15 | Cincinnati | at T.B. | 39 | 15 | 14 | 0 | 97 |
—Ian Allan