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Defensive matchups

Statistical rankings of upcoming defensive matchups

The performance numbers indicate that the best defensive matchups of the next three weeks are all coming up this weekend. Philadelphia, Minnesota and Kansas City, if past performance correlates with future success, could help lift fantasy teams to wins in playoff games.

This is a technique we use from time to time. You take the performance of each offense, match it up against each defense, and see what the composite numbers say. It’s a way to get a general idea of what’s reasonable to expect in any given game.

Based on those numbers, the Eagles this week will have the best defense that we’ll see through Week 17. They rank near the top in both sacks and takeaways, and they’re playing against an opponent (Chicago) that’s been generous in those areas.

The Eagles thus far have 49 sacks, while the Bears have allowed 42, making for a combined total of 91 (in 26 games), 5 more than in any other game in the near future.

The statistically worst defense matchup of the next three weeks also occurs this week, with Cincinnati at Tampa Bay. The Bengals actually have a good defense, while Tampa Bay’s offense has struggled, but combined I see (in 26 games) only 39 sacks, 15 interceptions, 14 lost fumbles and no touchdowns.

These are not my suggested rankings. They don’t factor in weather, injuries or how teams are currently playing. But it’s one way to get an initial impression. Games ranked using 6 points for touchdowns (scored by defense or special teams), 2 for every turnover and 1 for every sack.

DEFENSIVE MATCHUP AVERAGES (Weeks 15-17)
WkDefenseOppSackIntFumTDPoints
15Philadelphiaat Chi.9126155203
15MinnesotaInd.7626205198
15Kansas Cityat Hou.7524128195
16Buffaloat Chi.7724165187
17Dallasat Ten.8317214183
17New Englandat Phil.7916157183
17Jacksonvilleat Hou.5626167182
17PhiladelphiaN.E.8226153182
15San Franciscoat Sea.7023175180
16New Englandat Cle.7222175180
15New EnglandAtl.7322165179
16DallasPhil.8214195178
16TennesseeHou.6625107178
17NY GiantsInd.7518233175
16Denverat LAR7824124174
16LA Chargersat Ind.7118185173
15Green BayLAR7023125170
16San FranciscoWas.7325114169
17Miamiat N.O.6119147169
15Arizonaat Den.6816137168
17DetroitChi.6820155168
17LA ChargersLAR7117136167
16Kansas CitySea.7617164166
17Kansas CityDen.8616124166
15Dallasat Jac.7117213165
17BaltimorePitt.7327132165
17NY Jetsat Sea.7321133159
17SeattleNYJ6521173159
16ClevelandN.E.6017146158
17San Franciscoat L.V.5924105157
15BuffaloMia.6323143155
17Buffaloat Cin.7322132155
15Baltimoreat Cle.6623181154
15SeattleS.F.5718184153
16BaltimoreAtl.6723171153
15Atlantaat N.E.5021126152
16MinnesotaNYG7417162152
17Minnesotaat G.B.5421164152
17Clevelandat Was.6417115150
17AtlantaAri.5420106150
15Miamiat Buff.6118144149
15CarolinaPitt.622384148
15Las VegasN.O.5421144148
16LA RamsDen.6817143148
16Philadelphiaat Dall.6527111147
16Tampa Bayat Ari.7517103147
16Seattleat K.C.5522182147
15WashingtonNYG7812162146
17Arizonaat Atl.5217155146
16Cincinnatiat N.O.4921154145
16MiamiG.B.5716135145
15DenverAri.6921102143
16Washingtonat S.F.5714164141
15NY JetsDet.5819104140
16Jacksonvilleat NYJ5420172140
17Tampa BayCar.6617113140
16CarolinaDet.4717116139
17WashingtonCle.6116172139
15Tampa BayCin.761692138
16Detroitat Car.5419143138
15Detroitat NYJ5719152137
15Pittsburghat Car.532493137
15ClevelandBalt.5715124135
15LA Ramsat G.B.4818163134
16Houstonat Ten.6416161134
15NY Giantsat Was.6615151132
16Green Bayat Mia.5220103130
16ArizonaT.B.4214155130
16Atlantaat Balt.4719104129
15Tennesseeat LAC6416102128
15LA ChargersTen.6010153128
16Las Vegasat Pitt.602291128
16NY JetsJac.6218121128
17LA Ramsat LAC5516142127
16PittsburghL.V.482463126
17Indianapolisat NYG7610150126
17CincinnatiBuff.4920151125
17Denverat K.C.5322130123
17Pittsburghat Balt.552381123
15HoustonK.C.5021150122
16New OrleansCin.7212101122
17New OrleansMia.6213112122
17Green BayMin.5819101122
16NY Giantsat Min.6313160121
16ChicagoBuff.4420151120
17Carolinaat T.B.4616123120
16IndianapolisLAC6312131119
17Las VegasS.F.4916132119
15Indianapolisat Min.6614120118
17HoustonJac.5216160116
15JacksonvilleDall.3922131115
15New Orleansat L.V.571392113
15ChicagoPhil.5012132112
17Chicagoat Det.3516133111
17TennesseeDall.492171111
15Cincinnatiat T.B.391514097

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index