PHILADELPHIA (at Dallas)
Philadelphia's offense will be radically different without Jalen Hurts (almost certainly out with a sprained shoulder) but it might still put up top-5 numbers. The Eagles are still wildly talented on that side of the ball, while Dallas has really fallen apart defensively. The Cowboys ...
... allowed only 8 touchdowns in their first seven games. They've allowed 18 in their last seven, with the Bears, Packers and Jaguars (all teams with sub-.500 records) all scoring 4 TDs against them. The Eagles currently rank 2nd in scoring, with the league's best offensive line, a capable backup quarterback and capable weaponry. They'll probably come up with another 3-plus touchdowns in this one. ... DeVonta Smith looks very interesting. Given the matchup, it's reasonable to wonder if he should be slotted ahead of A.J. Brown. Brown is normally better, with 300 more yards and twice as many touchdowns, but Dallas recently lost ..
This report is taken from today's Week 16 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 23 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... cornerback Anthony Brown for the season. Jacksonville went right after his replacement, Kelvin Joseph, with Zay Jones putting up 6 catches for 109 yards and 3 TDs. Jones isn't Jacksonville's leading receiver; Christian Kirk is. But Kirk was more often covered by Trevon Diggs, who's one of the league's better cornerbacks. No doubt the Eagles watched this unfold. Some chance they do some of the same things, using Brown less than usual while pumping a bunch of passes to Smith. There's also the dynamic of Brown simply having a strong rapport with Jalen Hurts, who's almost certainly not playing. It's one of those smartest-guy-in-the-room type moves that can backfire, but some sense in arguing that Smith will be more productive than Brown. It happens on occasion anyway; Smith has finished with more yards than Brown six times this year. ... The Eagles have activated Dallas Goedert off IR, and our lean is to put Goedert in lineups right away. He hasn't played since Week 9, so there could be rust involved, but he could benefit dramatically from the quarterback and scheme change. When the Eagles put Gardner Minshew in the lineup in Week 14 last year, Goedert put up the best numbers of his career: 6 catches for 105 yards and 2 TDs. Minshew threw 2 TDs, and Goedert caught both of them. We're obligated to point out the Dallas has allowed only 1 TD pass to a tight end all year, but our general feeling is to start Goedert anyway. ... Philadelphia almost certainly will be starting Gardner Minshew, and he shouldn't be underestimated. With the weaponry around him, he looks like a good candidate for above-average numbers. In 20 starts at Jacksonville, Minshew averaged 247 passing yards, with 33 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. He also averaged 23 rushing yards in those games, with another touchdown. And when Minshew had a fill-in start against the Jets last year, he threw for 242 yards and 2 TDs. He wasn't as effective in a Week 18 game against Dallas (186 yards, 2 TDs) but the Eagles were resting players in that game. None of those previous starts came with a supporting cast as good as this one. The Eagles have a great offensive line and game-breaking receivers. And they're facing a defense that's been slipping, in part because of injuries. Trevor Lawrence just torched this defense for 318 yards and 4 TDs. Very good chance, it seems, that Minshew puts up 250 or so yards and a couple of touchdowns. ... The running backs look good. Better, in fact, than they would grade out with Jalen Hurts in the lineup. Hurts, after all, has scored 13 of the team's 30 rushing touchdowns. Until he returns, there won't be as many rushing touchdowns, but the running backs will score all of them. And for this week, they'll be working against a defense that's had some problems stopping the run. The Jaguars just ran for 191 yards against the Cowboys. Earlier, the Packers and Bears both went over 200. Dallas has a bottom-10 run defense. The Eagles look like they can get in on some of that action, even without their running quarterback; they have the best line in the league. Miles Sanders will lead the way. He's having a great year, averaging 79 rushing yards, with 11 touchdowns. And the quarterback change should result in him catching more passes than usual. And Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott make more sense than usual; they'll need to use them more. Especially Gainwell. He's got third-down back skills, but that role doesn't exist in the run-oriented Hurts offense. Gainwell has caught only 21 passes in the last 21 games with Hurts. In his two games with Minshew last year, Gainwell caught 9 passes. We're expecting different sections of the playbook to be dusted off for this game. ... Jake Elliott has scored 10 and 12 in two recent games, but otherwise he's been reliably disappointing, averaging only 5.3 points in his other games. Off the performance numbers, the recommendation would be to look at other options. But with this being a from-scratch matchup with essentially a different offense, it would be reasonable to conclude that the Eagles have an above-average offense and thus should have an above-average kicker. ... The Eagles Defense has a league-high 55 sacks, but those kind of pass rush numbers aren't happening. The Cowboys have allowed a league-low 19. Turnover potential, though, looks reasonable enough, with Dak Prescott consistently mixing in some wild throws. He's thrown 11 interceptions in his nine games. The Eagles have 25 takeaways, including 15 interceptions and 10 fumbles. While Boston Scott had a nice kickoff return last week, the Eagles don't really have a returner who looks like a candidate to take one to the house.