For fantasy football purposes, the NFL playoffs would work better if there were no byes involved. With missed games, it makes it harder for the players on those top-seeded teams to finish with the best numbers.
Kansas City and Philadelphia are the No. 1 seeds, but that caps their participation at three games. If any of the lower-seeded teams make it to the Super Bowl, they’ll play in four games, giving them at least a 33 percent edge over those top-seeded teams (or more – a 4-2 advantage in games, should a No. 1 seed lose at the conference championship level.
Postseason formats vary wildly, but in one built around cumulative production, it makes players from teams like the 49ers, Bills and Bengals look appealing, with the probability of getting a much bigger slice of playing time. If any of those teams fall at the conference championship level, they’re assured of playing as many games as can be possibly played by those No. 1 seed.
San Francisco looks like my favorite playoff team. I expect they’ll handle the Seahawks pretty easily this week. Then they’ll probably host the Vikings, and I would think that would be a comfortable win as well. That makes them the safest choice, I think, to play three games, and there’s a decent chance they could win at Philadelphia, giving them a fourth game of action.
Buffalo has a similarly soft first game. I don’t think they’ll have much trouble against Miami. But the following week they’ll likely be playing the Bengals, and that looks like a coin-flip kind of game. Cincinnati was leading when these teams were playing two weeks ago (had that game not been abandoned, the Bengals arguably would have won it, reversing home-field advantage for this rematch). The Bills have the nice bonus in that if they advance to an AFC title game against Kansas City, it will be at a neutral site.
Cincinnati similarly looks like a safe bet for two games. If Lamar Jackson is ruled out, I would call them a lock for two games. And the Bengals are playing well in general. I could see them winning at Buffalo and at Kansas City. I would say that with more conviction if the Bengals hadn’t lost two offensive line starters in the last three weeks.
When I play around with the numbers and general probabilities, The expected number of games for the 49ers, Bills and Bengals come out higher than those of Philadelphia and Kansas City.
That’s reflected in the player ratings we put together. In our process, we’re trying to make a fair per-game projection for each player. That’s created by looking carefully at how each player has performed, then pending those per-game projections to fit how the team should play in its upcoming games (especially its next game). We then (for each player) multiply that per-game production by the number of games we expect him to play in the postseason.
In the chart below, you’re looking at expected participation in each of the four rounds of the playoffs. With San Francisco, for example, we think there’s a 100 percent chance they play in the first round, a 95 percent chance they play against in the divisional round, a 90 percent chance they play in the NFC Championship, and a 35 percent chance they play in the Super Bowl – 1.0 + .95 + .90 + .35 = 3.20 games total.
| EXPECTED POSTSEASON PARTICIPATION | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | WC | Div | Conf | S.Bowl | Games |
| San Francisco | 100% | 95% | 90% | 35% | 3.20 |
| Buffalo | 100% | 95% | 60% | 30% | 2.85 |
| Cincinnati | 100% | 90% | 40% | 25% | 2.55 |
| Philadelphia | 0% | 100% | 85% | 60% | 2.45 |
| Kansas City | 0% | 100% | 90% | 45% | 2.35 |
| Dallas | 100% | 60% | 10% | 5% | 1.75 |
| Minnesota | 100% | 60% | 10% | 0% | 1.70 |
| Jacksonville | 100% | 55% | 5% | 0% | 1.60 |
| LA Chargers | 100% | 45% | 5% | 0% | 1.50 |
| Tampa Bay | 100% | 40% | 5% | 0% | 1.45 |
| NY Giants | 100% | 40% | 0% | 0% | 1.40 |
| Baltimore | 100% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 1.10 |
| Miami | 100% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 1.05 |
| Seattle | 100% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 1.05 |
—Ian Allan