Hayden Hurst landed a nice contract with Carolina. He bet on himself in Cincinnati last year, and it paid off. He’ll be more than doubling his pay with the Panthers.
Per reports, Hurst signed a contract that likely will be worth $21.7 million for three years or $15.3 million for two years. The Bengals had him at $3.5 million last year.
In Cincinnati, Hurst was a nice check-down option, averaging 4 catches per game – 10th-best among tight ends. He caught 77 percent of the passes thrown his way, 5th-best at the position. But he averaged only 8 yards per catch, and with just 2 TDs in 13 games.
In general, I think he’s a serviceable enough option – a former first-round pick who’s had some success. But he’s not a difference-maker kind of guy, and I’m not sure Carolina will be able to get him the ball enough to put him on the fantasy radar.
Carolina will be starting a rookie at quarterback for the bulk of the season. (If they start Andy Dalton for some games, it will create potential for a red-haired quarterback to throw a touchdown to a red-haired pass catcher, which might be an NFL first.) Regardless, quarterbacking isn’t a strength.
And they’ve got Frank Reich orchestrating the offense now. Considering how he used his tight ends in Indianapolis, I don’t think that’s a good thing. If we go way back to 2018, Eric Ebron was getting featured in the red zone, catching a wildly unlikely 13 touchdowns. But otherwise I see a lot of multiple tight end usage. In all five of Reich’s seasons there, two tight ends caught at least 3 TDs.
Since Ebron, I see one tight end finishing higher than 27th among tight ends using PPR scoring: Jack Doyle, catching 48 passes and 4 TDs four years ago, finishing as the No. 16 tight end that year. In each of the last four years, the Colts have had two tight ends catching 3-4 touchdowns, and in each of the last three years, they’ve had at least two tight ends catching 24-31 passes.
The Panthers have some other tight ends – Ian Thomas, Tommy Tremble. I think those guys will continue to play, mucking up the statistical situation with this team. Hurst is better than those guys, but I don’t see him as a big-time type tight end where they’ll be jamming everything in his direction.
I don’t think Hurst will be a top-20 tight end on my board.
| FRANK REICH'S TIGHT ENDS IN INDIANAPOLIS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | G | No | Yards | Avg | TD |
| 2018 | Eric Ebron | 16 | 66 | 750 | 11.4 | 13 |
| 2018 | Jack Doyle | 6 | 26 | 245 | 9.4 | 2 |
| 2018 | Erik Swoope | 7 | 8 | 87 | 10.9 | 3 |
| 2018 | Mo Alie-Cox | 9 | 7 | 133 | 19.0 | 2 |
| 2018 | Ryan Hewitt | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| 2019 | Jack Doyle | 16 | 43 | 448 | 10.4 | 4 |
| 2019 | Eric Ebron | 11 | 31 | 375 | 12.1 | 3 |
| 2019 | Mo Alie-Cox | 16 | 8 | 93 | 11.6 | 0 |
| 2019 | Ross Travis | 3 | 4 | 51 | 12.8 | 0 |
| 2020 | Trey Burton | 13 | 28 | 250 | 8.9 | 3 |
| 2020 | Mo Alie-Cox | 15 | 31 | 394 | 12.7 | 2 |
| 2020 | Jack Doyle | 14 | 23 | 251 | 10.9 | 3 |
| 2021 | Mo Alie-Cox | 17 | 24 | 316 | 13.2 | 4 |
| 2021 | Jack Doyle | 17 | 29 | 302 | 10.4 | 3 |
| 2021 | Kylen Granson | 17 | 11 | 106 | 9.6 | 0 |
| 2022 | Jelani Woods | 15 | 25 | 312 | 12.5 | 3 |
| 2022 | Kylen Granson | 13 | 31 | 302 | 9.7 | 0 |
| 2022 | Mo Alie-Cox | 17 | 19 | 189 | 9.9 | 3 |
—Ian Allan