Earlier this week Ian posted an article about Bijan Robinson, examining the odds of him being the best running back in the 2023 NFL Draft (he'll almost certainly be the first one selected, and possibly the only first-round pick). In the comments, a reader asked what percentage of recent first-round running backs have busted. So I took a look.

He asked about first-round running backs from the last 15 years of drafts, which gives us a nice sample set. There have been 27 running backs selected in the first round since 2008, although things are trending downward (17 of those backs were drafted from 2008-2015, compared to just 10 in the last seven years).

What defines a bust is somewhat subjective, but I decided on fewer than 2 top-20 fantasy seasons. (Doing it once is nice, but if they didn't have that kind of season more than once in their career, they weren't a successful pick.) By that measure, Trent Richardson was a bust, which I think most would agree on.

So here are the results. Seven of the backs didn't have any top-20 seasons, and three others had only one. So those are your "busts." (I'm excluding Travis Etienne, pictured, since he's only played one season, and it was a top-20 campaign.) Ten of 26.

The other 16, leaving out Etienne, had at least two top-20 seasons. Ten of those 16 had three or more, and one of the guys who has only two (Najee Harris) has only played two years. Most likely, he'll get a third.

Guys with 2 or 3 top-20 seasons can be debated. Jonathan Stewart had only 2, but he had three others ranking in the top 30 and was a pretty good back for a decade -- nobody (I don't think) would call him a bust. On the other hand, Rashard Mendenhall also had 2, but I don't think anyone views him as a great first-round pick. C.J. Spiller had one top-20 season, so he's in the bust group by this figuring, but he had two other top-30 seasons, and was a good player for a few years. So there's a gray area.

But anyway: 2-plus top-20 PPR seasons is a non-bust for our purposes here. If we put Etienne into the non-bust group, that's 17 of 27 first-round running backs who had multiple top-20 seasons -- 63 percent.

So if Bijan gets selected in the first round next week, let's say there's slightly more than a 60-40 chance he hits, and has multiple very good fantasy seasons. Not a sure thing, but could be worse.

Table below shows all the top-20 seasons by the 20 first-round backs from the last 15 years who had at least one. For the other seven -- from Felix Jones to Clyde Edwards-Helaire -- I've included their best fantasy seasons, which show up at the bottom (table sorted by fantasy rank). Maybe CEH or injury-plagued Rashaad Penny sneak out of the bust group in the remainder of their careers. Maybe not.

FIRST-ROUND RUNNING BACKS, TOP-20 (PPR) SEASONS, 2008-2022
YearPlayerRunNoRecTDPPRRk
2009Chris Johnson, Ten.20065050316398.91
2018Christian McCaffrey, Car.109810786713388.01
2019Christian McCaffrey, Car.1387116100519471.21
2017Todd Gurley, LAR13056478819387.31
2022Christian McCaffrey, 2TM11398574113356.72
2012Doug Martin, T.B.14544947212313.62
2016Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.16313236316327.42
2018Saquon Barkley, NYG13079172115385.82
2019Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.13575442014315.73
2022Josh Jacobs, L.V.16535340012330.33
2021Najee Harris, Pitt.12007446710300.73
2018Todd Gurley, LAR12515958021374.13
2015Doug Martin, T.B.1402332717242.34
2013Knowshon Moreno, Den.10386054813296.64
2018Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.1434775679331.15
2017Melvin Gordon, LAC11055847612288.15
2022Saquon Barkley, NYG13125733810284.05
2012C.J. Spiller, Buff.1244434598261.36
2010Chris Johnson, Ten.13644424512276.96
2021Leonard Fournette, T.B.8126945410255.66
2017Mark Ingram, N.O.11245841612284.06
2021Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.10024728712254.17
2019Leonard Fournette, Jac.1152765223261.47
2016Melvin Gordon, S.D.9974141912254.67
2011Ryan Mathews, S.D.1091504556240.67
2010Darren McFadden, Oak.11574750710273.48
2020Josh Jacobs, L.V.10653323812235.38
2016Mark Ingram, N.O.10434631910246.28
2018Melvin Gordon, LAC8855049014275.58
2012Trent Richardson, Cle.9505136712254.78
2011Chris Johnson, Ten.1047574184227.59
2013Chris Johnson, Ten.10774234510244.29
2017Christian McCaffrey, Car.435806517230.69
2020Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.979523388233.79
2015Todd Gurley, St.L.11062118810210.49
2017Leonard Fournette, Jac.10403630210230.210
2019Mark Ingram, Balt.10182624715246.510
2010Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt.12732316713245.011
2019Saquon Barkley, NYG1003524388244.111
2012Chris Johnson, Ten.1243362326219.512
2017Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.983262699205.212
2021Josh Jacobs, L.V.872543489230.012
2015Mark Ingram, N.O.769504056205.412
2015Darren McFadden, Dall.1089403283201.713
2022Leonard Fournette, T.B.668735236228.113
2020Melvin Gordon, Den.9863215810206.413
2022Najee Harris, Pitt.10344122910227.514
2019Todd Gurley, LAR8573120714223.414
2009Jonathan Stewart, Car.11331813911211.215
2014Mark Ingram, N.O.964291459193.915
2016Todd Gurley, LAR885433276200.215
2009Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt.1108252618209.917
2013Ryan Mathews, S.D.1255261897212.417
2022Travis Etienne, Jac.1125353165211.117
2009Knowshon Moreno, Den.947282139198.018
2010Knowshon Moreno, Den.779373728200.118
2021Melvin Gordon, Den.9182821310201.118
2011Jonathan Stewart, Car.761474135194.419
2010Jahvid Best, Det.555584876198.220
2020Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C.803362975176.022
2011Beanie Wells, Ariz.1047105210179.923
2010Felix Jones, Dall.800484502185.023
2013Donald Brown, Ind.537272148150.128
2019Sony Michel, N.E.91212947154.631
2021Rashaad Penny, Sea.7496486121.742
2012David Wilson, NYG358434679.251

--Andy Richardson