It was a great draft year for tight ends. There were nine selected in the first three rounds, most in history. Many of those players will be coveted in rookie drafts, particularly in TE-premium leagues, with 1st-rounder Dalton Kincaid the headliner.
But will they make a 2023 impact? The history says probably one, at most.
Since 2000, there have been 115 tight ends drafted in the first three rounds, an average of 5 per year. Of those players, only six have finished in the top 12 (PPR) at the position in their rookie seasons. Two Giants (Jeremy Shockey, Evan Engram), Kyle Pitts, John Carlson, Chris Cooley and Rob Gronkowski.
Fifteen others have at least finished in the top 20 -- viable in TE-premium leagues, where the position gets a point and a half per reception and perhaps has a flex spot so you can start two players at the position, or at least as a part-time starter. But that's still just 21 top-20 finishers in 23 years; fewer than 1 in 5 of the 115 selected.
Kincaid is the most obvious one, selected earliest and going to Buffalo. They have Dawson Knox, but could choose to use Kincaid primarily as a pass catcher, essentially a big wideout on the field pretty regularly. But a lot of the second-rounders might be in even better spots.
The Raiders traded away Darren Waller and lost Foster Moreau (a free agent, but stepping away for health reasons). So Notre Dame's Michael Mayer (pictured), who the team traded up for early in the second round, is stepping into a situation with as much experience in the offense as veterans Austin Hooper and O.J. Howard, signed in free agency. Mayer went over 800 receiving yards in each of the last two seasons, catching 16 touchdowns.
The Packers and Cowboys both lost starters in free agency; Robert Tonyan and Dalton Schultz. In the second round they selected Luke Musgrave (Green Bay) and Luke Schoonmaker (Dallas). Musgrave didn't put up top production in college (22 catches in 2021 was his best season), but might have been on his way in 2022 until a knee injury ended his season after only two games. In those games he went 6-89-1 and 5-80. He was able to return at the end of the year for the Senior Bowl and participated at the combine, running a 4.6. Starting as a rookie and being an option for Jordan Love seems reasonable.
The Cowboys have a couple of returning youngsters at the position, Jake Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot. Each caught 2 TDs last year in limited playing time. But Schoonmaker was one of Michigan's leading receivers (35-418-3), and he's going to work in a better offense with a more proven quarterback. Dallas' early investment in him looks pretty promising.
Odds are against any of these players being a fantasy starter right away, but they'll be worth monitoring in training camp.
Table shows the tight ends drafted in the first three rounds this century to rank in the top 25 at the position in their rookie seasons. One of the players discussed above will probably join this group; maybe 2, with it looking like a better than average year for the position. Two years ago, Kyle Pitts and Pat Freiermuth made it into the top 15 as rookies.
| ROOKIE TIGHT ENDS IN THE TOP 25 (PPR), DRAFT RDS 1-3 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Tgt | No | Rec | Avg | TD | Rk |
| 2002 | Jeremy Shockey, NYG | 128 | 74 | 894 | 12.1 | 2 | 3 |
| 2017 | Evan Engram, NYG | 115 | 64 | 722 | 11.3 | 6 | 5 |
| 2021 | Kyle Pitts, Atl. | 110 | 68 | 1026 | 15.1 | 1 | 6 |
| 2008 | John Carlson, Sea. | 80 | 55 | 627 | 11.4 | 5 | 7 |
| 2010 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 59 | 42 | 546 | 13.0 | 10 | 11 |
| 2004 | Chris Cooley, Was. | 63 | 37 | 314 | 8.5 | 6 | 12 |
| 2021 | Pat Freiermuth, Pitt. | 79 | 60 | 497 | 8.3 | 7 | 13 |
| 2008 | Dustin Keller, NYJ | 78 | 48 | 535 | 11.2 | 3 | 14 |
| 2005 | Heath Miller, Pitt. | 52 | 39 | 459 | 11.8 | 6 | 14 |
| 2019 | Noah Fant, Den. | 66 | 40 | 562 | 14.1 | 3 | 15 |
| 2010 | Jermaine Gresham, Cin. | 83 | 52 | 471 | 9.1 | 4 | 16 |
| 2007 | Zach Miller (ASU), Oak. | 68 | 44 | 444 | 10.1 | 3 | 16 |
| 2018 | Mark Andrews, Balt. | 50 | 34 | 552 | 16.2 | 3 | 17 |
| 2010 | Tony Moeaki, K.C. | 73 | 47 | 556 | 11.8 | 3 | 17 |
| 2016 | Hunter Henry, S.D. | 53 | 36 | 478 | 13.3 | 8 | 18 |
| 2002 | Doug Jolley, Oak. | 37 | 32 | 409 | 12.8 | 2 | 18 |
| 2000 | Bubba Franks, G.B. | 55 | 34 | 363 | 10.7 | 1 | 19 |
| 2005 | Alex Smith, T.B. | 61 | 41 | 367 | 9.0 | 2 | 19 |
| 2017 | O.J. Howard, T.B. | 39 | 26 | 432 | 16.6 | 6 | 20 |
| 2018 | Dallas Goedert, Phil. | 44 | 33 | 334 | 10.1 | 4 | 20 |
| 2003 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 54 | 35 | 347 | 9.9 | 1 | 20 |
| 2001 | Alge Crumpler, Atl. | 41 | 25 | 330 | 13.2 | 3 | 21 |
| 2007 | Greg Olsen, Chi. | 66 | 39 | 391 | 10.0 | 2 | 22 |
| 2013 | Jordan Reed, Was. | 59 | 45 | 499 | 11.1 | 3 | 22 |
| 2013 | Zach Ertz, Phil. | 57 | 36 | 469 | 13.0 | 4 | 23 |
| 2017 | David Njoku, Cle. | 60 | 32 | 386 | 12.1 | 4 | 24 |
| 2003 | Dallas Clark, Ind. | 42 | 29 | 340 | 11.7 | 1 | 24 |
| 2002 | Jerramy Stevens, Sea. | 42 | 26 | 252 | 9.7 | 3 | 24 |
| 2014 | Jace Amaro, NYJ | 53 | 38 | 345 | 9.1 | 2 | 24 |
| 2012 | Dwayne Allen, Ind. | 66 | 45 | 521 | 11.6 | 3 | 25 |
--Andy Richardson