The Bucs are going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield as their starting quarterback, which is why I have zero interest in anything connected with Tampa Bay's offense. Their receivers aren't likely to put up numbers remotely close to what they've done in the past.
It's not that Mayfield simply can't play. He did have a couple of nice outings for the Rams, knocking off the Raiders and Broncos in two of his games after joining the team. But he also lost convincingly to the Packers and Chargers. Looking at the entirety of his career, it looks like Mayfield does worst when asked to do most. For that reason, I expect it to be a conservative offense that tries to win low-scoring affairs (or just maybe they're tanking for a high draft pick, with little interest in winning games at all).
I pulled out all of Mayfield's career games; over the past five seasons, there have been 72 where he's either started or played extensively. In 31 of those games, he's passed for more than 230 yards, and the problem is that when he's done more as a passer, more of the bad things have occurred as well.
In those 31 games, he threw 57 touchdowns, which is something, but he also threw 32 interceptions, so just more than 1 per game. He took at least 4 sacks in a quarter of those, and his teams went only 14-17.
| MAYFIELD PASSING FOR OVER 230 YARDS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Opp | Result | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Sk |
| 2018 | at Hou. | L 13-29 | 29 | 43 | 397 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 2018 | at Bal. | L 24-26 | 23 | 42 | 376 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| 2020 | Bal. | L 42-47 | 28 | 47 | 343 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 2018 | Bal. | W 12-9 | 25 | 43 | 342 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 2019 | at Bal. | W 40-25 | 20 | 30 | 342 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2020 | at Ten. | W 41-35 | 25 | 33 | 334 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019 | Mia. | W 41-24 | 24 | 34 | 327 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 2019 | at NYJ | W 23-3 | 19 | 35 | 325 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 2021 | at K.C. | L 29-33 | 21 | 28 | 321 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 2021 | at LAC | L 42-47 | 23 | 32 | 305 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 2018 | K.C. | L 21-37 | 29 | 42 | 297 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 2020 | at Cin. | W 37-34 | 22 | 28 | 297 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| 2020 | at NYG | W 20-6 | 27 | 32 | 297 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 2018 | at Oak. | L 42-45 | 21 | 41 | 295 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 2019 | Ten. | L 13-43 | 25 | 38 | 285 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| 2020 | at NYJ | L 16-23 | 28 | 53 | 285 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 2018 | Cin. | W 26-18 | 27 | 37 | 284 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019 | at Cin. | L 23-33 | 12 | 27 | 279 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 2019 | at Den. | L 19-24 | 27 | 42 | 273 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 2018 | at Cin. | W 35-20 | 19 | 26 | 258 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 2020 | at Jac. | W 27-25 | 19 | 29 | 258 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 2019 | Sea. | L 28-32 | 22 | 37 | 249 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 2019 | at Ari. | L 24-38 | 30 | 43 | 247 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2020 | Ind. | W 32-23 | 21 | 37 | 247 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 2021 | at Bal. | L 10-16 | 18 | 37 | 247 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 2021 | Chi. | W 26-6 | 19 | 31 | 246 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 2018 | LAC | L 14-38 | 22 | 46 | 238 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| 2018 | Car. | W 26-20 | 18 | 22 | 238 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2019 | Buf. | W 19-16 | 26 | 38 | 238 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 2022 | Cle. | L 24-26 | 16 | 27 | 235 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 2021 | Ari. | L 14-37 | 19 | 28 | 234 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
In the 41 games where Mayfield passed for fewer than 230 yards, in contrast, his teams fared better. They went 20-21, and Mayfield also threw 32 interceptions -- but in 10 more games. Arguably the Browns figured out they were better off with Mayfield doing less, in terms of winning games and cutting down on mistakes in the passing game.
With Mayfield as a starter, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and company will be best if the team is engaging in shootouts, with Mayfield passing a bunch (and the mistakes also occurring). But more likely the team goes conservative, with (I suspect) more running and defense. That's part of why Rachaad White is a popular sleeper. But a committee of lesser backs is also possible, in what should be a bad offense losing a bunch of games. (And things are unlikely to be better if they switch to Kyle Trask at quarterback.)
--Andy Richardson