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Baker Mayfield

Unlikely to cook with Bucs

The Bucs are going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield as their starting quarterback, which is why I have zero interest in anything connected with Tampa Bay's offense. Their receivers aren't likely to put up numbers remotely close to what they've done in the past.

It's not that Mayfield simply can't play. He did have a couple of nice outings for the Rams, knocking off the Raiders and Broncos in two of his games after joining the team. But he also lost convincingly to the Packers and Chargers. Looking at the entirety of his career, it looks like Mayfield does worst when asked to do most. For that reason, I expect it to be a conservative offense that tries to win low-scoring affairs (or just maybe they're tanking for a high draft pick, with little interest in winning games at all).

I pulled out all of Mayfield's career games; over the past five seasons, there have been 72 where he's either started or played extensively. In 31 of those games, he's passed for more than 230 yards, and the problem is that when he's done more as a passer, more of the bad things have occurred as well.

In those 31 games, he threw 57 touchdowns, which is something, but he also threw 32 interceptions, so just more than 1 per game. He took at least 4 sacks in a quarter of those, and his teams went only 14-17.

MAYFIELD PASSING FOR OVER 230 YARDS
YearOppResultCmpAttYdsTDIntSk
2018at Hou.L 13-292943397130
2018at Bal.L 24-262342376330
2020Bal.L 42-472847343210
2018Bal.W 12-92543342115
2019at Bal.W 40-252030342111
2020at Ten.W 41-352533334400
2019Mia.W 41-242434327311
2019at NYJW 23-31935325113
2021at K.C.L 29-332128321012
2021at LACL 42-472332305201
2018K.C.L 21-372942297212
2020at Cin.W 37-342228297510
2020at NYGW 20-62732297201
2018at Oak.L 42-452141295222
2019Ten.L 13-432538285135
2020at NYJL 16-232853285004
2018Cin.W 26-182737284300
2019at Cin.L 23-331227279336
2019at Den.L 19-242742273102
2018at Cin.W 35-201926258400
2020at Jac.W 27-251929258202
2019Sea.L 28-322237249130
2019at Ari.L 24-383043247211
2020Ind.W 32-232137247221
2021at Bal.L 10-161837247102
2021Chi.W 26-61931246105
2018LACL 14-382246238125
2018Car.W 26-201822238101
2019Buf.W 19-162638238202
2022Cle.L 24-261627235114
2021Ari.L 14-371928234215

In the 41 games where Mayfield passed for fewer than 230 yards, in contrast, his teams fared better. They went 20-21, and Mayfield also threw 32 interceptions -- but in 10 more games. Arguably the Browns figured out they were better off with Mayfield doing less, in terms of winning games and cutting down on mistakes in the passing game.

With Mayfield as a starter, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and company will be best if the team is engaging in shootouts, with Mayfield passing a bunch (and the mistakes also occurring). But more likely the team goes conservative, with (I suspect) more running and defense. That's part of why Rachaad White is a popular sleeper. But a committee of lesser backs is also possible, in what should be a bad offense losing a bunch of games. (And things are unlikely to be better if they switch to Kyle Trask at quarterback.)

--Andy Richardson

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