Dalton Schultz was a top-1o tight end a year ago, so his replacement in Dallas could come into some value this season. There are three potential candidates, but Jake Ferguson looks best, and more so today.
That's because second-round rookie Luke Schoonmaker, who draft capital suggests is the future at the position, is looking like a longshot for a 2023 impact. He's on the non-football injury list with a foot injury, and the team says only that it's hopeful he participates in training camp -- there's no timetable for his return.
Ferguson, thus, looks a lot more likely to open as the team's top option at the position, with another second-year guy, Peyton Hendershot, the other possibility. Schoonmaker, at least until he gets on the field, seems to be well behind those guys.
Ferguson didn't put up big numbers a year, ago catching 19 passes and 2 touchdowns (Hendershot also caught 2 TDs). But he made the most of the chances he had.
Among all tight ends to see at least 20 targets a year ago, Ferguson's 86 percent catch rate was 3rd-best in the league. That in itself doesn't earn lineup consideration (the top 2 options weren't significant players), but it speaks well to what he might do with an expanded role.
| TIGHT END CATCH RATES, 2022 (20-PLUS TARGETS) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Rate |
| Johnny Mundt, Min. | 21 | 19 | 140 | 7.4 | 1 | 90.5% |
| Will Dissly, Sea. | 38 | 34 | 349 | 10.3 | 3 | 89.5% |
| Jake Ferguson, Dall. | 22 | 19 | 174 | 9.2 | 2 | 86.4% |
| Daniel Bellinger, NYG | 35 | 30 | 268 | 8.9 | 2 | 85.7% |
| Zach Gentry, Pitt. | 23 | 19 | 132 | 6.9 | 0 | 82.6% |
| Noah Gray, K.C. | 34 | 28 | 299 | 10.7 | 1 | 82.4% |
| Adam Trautman, N.O. | 22 | 18 | 207 | 11.5 | 1 | 81.8% |
| Dallas Goedert, Phil. | 69 | 55 | 702 | 12.8 | 3 | 79.7% |
| Noah Fant, Sea. | 63 | 50 | 486 | 9.7 | 4 | 79.4% |
| Robert Tonyan, G.B. | 67 | 53 | 470 | 8.9 | 2 | 79.1% |
| C.J. Uzomah, NYJ | 27 | 21 | 232 | 11.0 | 2 | 77.8% |
| Kylen Granson, Ind. | 40 | 31 | 302 | 9.7 | 0 | 77.5% |
| Hayden Hurst, Cin. | 68 | 52 | 414 | 8.0 | 2 | 76.5% |
| MyCole Pruitt, Atl. | 21 | 16 | 150 | 9.4 | 4 | 76.2% |
| Brock Wright, Det. | 24 | 18 | 216 | 12.0 | 4 | 75.0% |
| Durham Smythe, Mia. | 20 | 15 | 129 | 8.6 | 1 | 75.0% |
| Evan Engram, Jac. | 98 | 73 | 766 | 10.5 | 4 | 74.5% |
| Trey McBride, Ari. | 39 | 29 | 265 | 9.1 | 1 | 74.4% |
| Dawson Knox, Buff. | 65 | 48 | 517 | 10.8 | 6 | 73.8% |
| Harrison Bryant, Cle. | 42 | 31 | 239 | 7.7 | 1 | 73.8% |
| Colby Parkinson, Sea. | 34 | 25 | 322 | 12.9 | 2 | 73.5% |
| David Njoku, Cle. | 80 | 58 | 628 | 10.8 | 4 | 72.5% |
| Cole Kmet, Chi. | 69 | 50 | 544 | 10.9 | 7 | 72.5% |
| Travis Kelce, K.C. | 152 | 110 | 1338 | 12.2 | 12 | 72.4% |
| Jonnu Smith, N.E. | 38 | 27 | 245 | 9.1 | 0 | 71.1% |
| Ian Thomas, Car. | 30 | 21 | 197 | 9.4 | 0 | 70.0% |
| George Kittle, S.F. | 86 | 60 | 765 | 12.8 | 11 | 69.8% |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo, Ten. | 46 | 32 | 450 | 14.1 | 3 | 69.6% |
| Hunter Henry, N.E. | 59 | 41 | 509 | 12.4 | 2 | 69.5% |
| Irv Smith, Min. | 36 | 25 | 182 | 7.3 | 2 | 69.4% |
| Jordan Akins, Hou. | 54 | 37 | 495 | 13.4 | 5 | 68.5% |
| Austin Hooper, Ten. | 60 | 41 | 444 | 10.8 | 2 | 68.3% |
| Zach Ertz, Ari. | 69 | 47 | 406 | 8.6 | 4 | 68.1% |
| Mo Alie-Cox, Ind. | 28 | 19 | 189 | 9.9 | 3 | 67.9% |
| T.J. Hockenson, 2TM | 129 | 86 | 914 | 10.6 | 6 | 66.7% |
| Tyler Higbee, LAR | 108 | 72 | 620 | 8.6 | 3 | 66.7% |
| Gerald Everett, LAC | 87 | 58 | 555 | 9.6 | 4 | 66.7% |
| Tyler Conklin, NYJ | 87 | 58 | 552 | 9.5 | 3 | 66.7% |
| Darren Waller, L.V. | 43 | 28 | 388 | 13.9 | 3 | 65.1% |
| Juwan Johnson, N.O. | 65 | 42 | 508 | 12.1 | 7 | 64.6% |
| Cade Otton, T.B. | 65 | 42 | 391 | 9.3 | 2 | 64.6% |
| Mark Andrews, Balt. | 113 | 73 | 847 | 11.6 | 5 | 64.6% |
| Pat Freiermuth, Pitt. | 98 | 63 | 732 | 11.6 | 2 | 64.3% |
| Dalton Schultz, Dall. | 89 | 57 | 577 | 10.1 | 5 | 64.0% |
| Logan Thomas, Was. | 61 | 39 | 323 | 8.3 | 1 | 63.9% |
| John Bates, Was. | 22 | 14 | 108 | 7.7 | 1 | 63.6% |
| Jelani Woods, Ind. | 40 | 25 | 312 | 12.5 | 3 | 62.5% |
| Eric Saubert, Den. | 24 | 15 | 148 | 9.9 | 1 | 62.5% |
| Mike Gesicki, Mia. | 52 | 32 | 362 | 11.3 | 5 | 61.5% |
| Foster Moreau, L.V. | 54 | 33 | 420 | 12.7 | 2 | 61.1% |
| Isaiah Likely, Balt. | 60 | 36 | 373 | 10.4 | 3 | 60.0% |
| Greg Dulcich, Den. | 55 | 33 | 411 | 12.5 | 2 | 60.0% |
| Pharaoh Brown, 2TM | 20 | 12 | 117 | 9.8 | 0 | 60.0% |
| Tommy Tremble, Car. | 32 | 19 | 174 | 9.2 | 3 | 59.4% |
| Josh Oliver, Balt. | 25 | 14 | 149 | 10.6 | 2 | 56.0% |
| Cameron Brate, T.B. | 38 | 20 | 174 | 8.7 | 0 | 52.6% |
| Brevin Jordan, Hou. | 28 | 14 | 128 | 9.1 | 0 | 50.0% |
| Kyle Pitts, Atl. | 59 | 28 | 356 | 12.7 | 2 | 47.5% |
| O.J. Howard, Hou. | 23 | 10 | 145 | 14.5 | 2 | 43.5% |
As noted, catch rate isn't everything -- nobody will be drafting Johnny Mundt. But Ferguson should have Dak Prescott's confidence with an expanded role.
Some of the guys near the bottom of the list are interesting. Schultz himself caught just 64 percent of the passes thrown his way. A pair of first-round picks are at the very bottom, kind of a disturbing place for Kyle Pitts to be.
Those in fantasy leagues that start just one tight end might not care much, but those of us in TE-premium leagues (giving 1.5 points per reception) with flex spots can consider investing in Ferguson. Some nice upside, if he comes away with a Schultz-like role this year.
--Andy Richardson