Have you ever been to a restaurant, and realized that you don't like anything on the menu? You go over it several times, hoping the options will somehow change, and they never do. You can't find anything that interests you, and you start to feel pressure to just pick something so you don't hold everyone else up. Anything really, even though you probably don't want it and will regret it later.
That's exactly how I feel when I look at running backs headed into the 2023 season.
I know there are good lists that rank them, and they make a lot of sense. But right now, I look at those lists and realize I don't want any of these players. More specifically, I see so many flaws in each guy that I doubt they're worth the spot where I'd have to take them.
Christian McCaffrey? I’m not sure who his quarterback will be (the 49ers probably aren't totally sure, either). I also think they were very careful last season not to overwork him and invite those injuries that derailed some of his time with the Panthers. With championship aspirations and a long season, I think they'll pull back even more and he'll leave a lot of potential yards and touchdowns on the table. They want him healthy in January, while I'm only concerned with the rest of 2023. I'm not saying he won't be productive. I'm saying I don't like the idea of spending an early first-rounder on him.
Austin Ekeler? Love his talent, but I'm concerned. He's 28, I don't love relying that much on receiving yards, I don't like the Chargers' coaching, he requested a trade, he didn't get the deal he wanted, and he's 28, in case you forgot already. Spending a first-round pick (or healthy part of your auction budget) on an unhappy, almost-30 running back on a team that consistently underperforms? Not excited.
Derrick Henry? A little older than Ekeler and a lot more wear and tear on his body. Worse team, too.
Josh Jacobs? Hates his team. Is he even thinking about playing?
Saquon Barkley? Well, at least he signed a one-year deal and will definitely play. Barkley had a productive year gunning for a long-term contract, but he didn't get it. I think he's headed for a disinterested, mediocre follow-up. I feel the same about the Giants in general, by the way.
Joe Mixon? Boring, underperforming, and I need more scoring.
(I worked a little bit on that last line. Thank you very much.)
Now, what do these guys all have in common? They were all on the recent Zoom meeting organized by Ekeler. They met to discuss the lack of respect their position seems to have among NFL teams (obvious) and what they can do about it (pretty much nothing). But it's clear they're not happy about the upcoming season. It's gotten so bad that the NFLPA president actually hypothesized that running backs could extend injuries and spend more time off the field so as not to risk their careers while playing on cheaper contracts. And you're going to stake your fantasy fortunes on their production?
As a result, I have almost no confidence in taking a running back early. Maybe Jonathan Taylor. He's a great young runner, should get a lot of work, and I feel good about him bouncing back from an injury.
But aside from him, I don't....aaaaand this just in: Taylor wants a trade from the Colts after failing to get a long-term deal. Wonderful.
Now, I'm sure that some of these famous names will end up being worth an early pick. I just have no idea who they will be, and none of them look particularly likely. I'd prefer to skip them, let other managers take that risk, and select someone I feel is more likely to perform close to expectations. Then, if guys I actually like are still there (Tony Pollard, Isiah Pacheco, Ken Walker) I'll go that route. If not (and it’s likely not), it'll be another season with nothing special at running back for me. But I guess if the NFL teams can do it, so can I.
Now, if everyone takes that strategy, there will be some real bargains available long past their expected draft position. But they won't. Managers all have different strategies, including not having one at all. So I think I can pick up players at other positions and end up okay with middling running back talent.
It sure wasn't like that a few years ago, but things change. As fantasy managers, we have to adapt. Running backs have to adapt as well, and it's clear that their talents aren't as valued relative to other positions. A good first-round pick won't net you a title, but whiffing badly on it can put you in a hole. I'll take a risk at other positions until I feel better about the remaining backs. And if I still don't like them, I should have strengths in other areas to make up for it. If you're selecting players this week, good luck!
How do you feel about using early picks on running backs? Do any risks look better than others? How far would you let these guys fall before you pulled the trigger? Share your thoughts below.
