Some people reading this column are getting ready for a draft coming up this week. Others might have one the following week. A few might have drafted already. If you have more drafts or auctions coming up, I'll make this short and sweet: Try to put off draft day as long as you can. Ask the commissioner, petition the league, whatever it takes. The longer you wait, the better off you'll be.
Technically, an early draft is fair because all managers are in the same boat and have the same access to information. They're all subject to luck, good and bad. The problem is that, when you draft with weeks before the season starts, you're inviting extra variables that can hurt fantasy teams before the first game. It's fair, but it isn't right. You should have the ability to see your strategy either succeed or fail based on in-game performances. A late injury or other change that affects your starters puts a damper on your season before it even begins. Things will change after week 1, but you should at least go into the regular season with a chance to see your plans executed properly.
And while that's true every season, I think it's a bigger deal this year. The running back market collapse means there are productive backs just sitting out there in free agency. There are fantasy teams that could win a title with Dalvin Cook and Kareem Hunt as their starters, if we had any idea where they'd be playing this season. These are difference-makers who will not only be valued improperly at an early draft, but will ruin the value of other players. They'll go to teams whose "starters" will be drafted, and will likely become instant backups. What's the advantage of fantasy teams dealing with these extra headaches before week 1?
(I wrote that last part before Cook agreed to go to the Jets and Ezekiel Elliott appears to be headed to New England. See how much things can change in one day? If that information makes part of my column look out of date 24 hours after I wrote it, what would it do to your fantasy team?)
That doesn't count injuries (Davante Adams, Kendre Miller), camp battles, final-roster cuts and depth chart surprises. The later you draft, the fewer of these obstacles you have to overcome. Now, I know people will say that we're in the middle of August so these are already "late" drafts. After all, managers were drafting weeks ago! Sure, but that's not my problem. They invited their own headaches with an early draft. I'm encouraging you to try and push it back as much as possible. If you can't change it this year, try to make it later next year.
So what's the ideal draft date? For me it's Wednesday, Sept. 6, the day before the first kickoff of the season. That Tuesday is fine, too. You have final roster cuts completed, camp battles decided, and injuries logged and evaluated. You might miss a last-minute free agent signing, but you're getting the vast majority of preseason questions answered. I think it's about the best you can do.
I've seen some leagues draft after the first game. They draft the weekend before most week 1 games, but after the Thursday game. You'll know the results of some players and can draft accordingly. In the long run, one game shouldn't affect things too much, but it seems a little weird to me. Once the first game kicks off, I want drafts complete. But it's another option.
I actually lobbied to push the draft date back in one league and we moved it. I think it helps everybody. The only caveat is that you're probably not going to have an all-day golf/draft/beer fest on a Wednesday. So if that's part of your league's tradition, I guess the weekend is the best option. Just make it the weekend before the first game, holiday or not. If you wait longer, the draft won't represent what people actually want headed into week 1. Like I said, it's still fair for everybody. But so would drafting in March. Fair doesn't equal fun. Go for both, and draft as late as possible.
How late (or early) does your league draft? Are you okay with earlier drafts? Ever get burned (or get a steal) by not waiting an extra week or two? Share your thoughts below.