The Vikings don’t have Justin Jefferson, but they might not need him this week.
The Bears are that bad. Only two teams have allowed more points, and only three have allowed more yards. Chicago gave up only 20 points last week in Washington but has allowed at least 27 in each of its other four games.
Minnesota is thus far averaging 2.6 touchdowns, but even without Jefferson seems more likely to reach 3 in this one. … We’re ranking Alexander Mattison higher than usual. With Jefferson out, the Vikings will likely look to be more balanced offensively. And they’re playing against lesser opposition. But this defense isn’t as hopelessly awful against the run as last year when it ranked next-to-last while allowing a league-high 31 rushing touchdowns (almost 2 per week).
Chicago actually ranks 12th in run defense this season, down at 98 yards per week (and with a modest 4 TDs). But we’re thinking this will still be a bottom-10 run defense when all is said and done. Both the Broncos and Commanders the last two weeks moved away from the run after falling behind. Mattison thus far is averaging 55 rushing and 15 receiving yards, but he should produce above those levels. He went over 90 yards in back-to-back games before playing against KC on Sunday.
Minnesota hasn’t yet scored a rushing touchdown, but decent change it punches one in this week, and that likely would be Mattison. Cam Akers should get some change-of-pace carries; two weeks in a row he’s been on the field for 29 percent of their plays. …
Kirk Cousins will be taking a step back over the next month, playing without Jefferson for four games. But Cousins still looks like a starter-quality option this week. Jordan Love and Russell Wilson, after all, both threw 3 TDs against this defense. Baker Mayfield went for 317 yards and a touchdown. And Sam Howell came in at 388 yards, with 2 TDs. The Bears are allowing 295 passing yards per game, and with 12 TDs. Cousins, meanwhile, is averaging 300 yards per week, and with 13 TDs. So as we compare offenses and defense, this is numerically the best matchup of Week 6. Cousins is very much in play for top-5 passing numbers. …
T.J. Hockenson looks very good. With Jefferson out, he should be seeing plenty of balls. And the truth is, he was going to pile up a bunch of stats anyway. In his 15 games with the Vikings (two games short of a season), he’s caught 90 passes for 773 yards and 5 TDs. He’s been a disappointment as a scorer, with touchdowns in only three of those games, but the Jefferson injury might help to get him a few more looks in that area.
Chicago has allowed touchdowns to tight ends in two of its last three games. … With Jefferson out, the remaining wide receivers look a lot more compelling. Jordan Addison has been better than K.J. Osborn so far, with 39- and 62-yard touchdowns in his first two games and a red zone TD last week. Five weeks in, he’s got 6 more catches, 83 more yards, and one more touchdown. Addison was shut out at Carolina but has caught 6 passes in each of his last two other games. He’s a first-round pick, and he looks ready to do more. Osborn hasn’t been a big factor yet, averaging just over 2 catches per week, but he’s been productive in the past. When they elevated him ahead of Adam Thielen in the pecking order late last year, Osborn caught 32 passes for 408 yards and 4 TDs in the last six games. When he saw increased playing time in the final six games of the 2021 season, Osborn caught 19 passes for 290 yards and 5 TDs.
The way they’re passing the ball right now, he could be about to embark on one of those kinds of runs for the next month. As well as the Vikings are passing it, there’s room for both Osborn and Addison to be productive. (Especially against this defense.) …
Greg Joseph won’t be going home empty-handed but seems likely to kick primarily extra points rather than field goals. Thus far he’s sitting at a 14-4 ratio of the one-point kicks, while the Bears have allowed only half as many field goals as PATs. Chicago has been slightly below average against the position, but Joseph is averaging only 5.2 points per week. …
The Vikings Defense is a lesser group but this is a week where it might put up top-10 production. Justin Fields has a tendency to hold the ball too long, getting himself in trouble. With 32 career starts, he’s taken 111 sacks and thrown 26 interceptions, with 32 fumbles (9 lost). He’s had turnovers returned for touchdowns in three of his five games this year. Minnesota is short talent on that side of the ball, but Brian Flores has dialed up 23 more blitzes than any other coordinator.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 6 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst package. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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