Anthony Richardson will undergo shoulder surgery; he's out for the season. Backup Gardner Minshew, then, will take over for the rest of the way, giving him a chance to make his case for a starting job somewhere else. Yay?
I'm a fan of Minshew; I like his late-round draft pick story and his quirkiness and practice habits. He famously lived in an RV one offseason, touring the country and working out in hopes of landing a starting job somewhere. I have been surprised that, given the quality of some of starting quarterbacks around the league, he's only been able to land backup jobs in free agency.
So now's his chance, quarterbacking a team that at 3-3 has exceeded expectations and is a legitimate contender in an AFC that currently only has seven teams with winning records. Should we be running to pick up Minshew in fantasy leagues?
Unfortunately, his results the last few years have been pretty modest. The last three seasons he's started or played most of eight games -- four with the Eagles, four now with Indianapolis (playing about tw0-thirds of two of those games, after Richardson was sidelined). Here are the results.
| GARDNER MINSHEW, 2021-2023 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Opp | Result | Cmp | Att | Pass | TD | Int | Sk |
| 2021 | at NYJ | W 33-18 | 20 | 25 | 242 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 2021 | Dall. | L 26-51 | 19 | 33 | 186 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 2022 | at Dall. | L 34-40 | 24 | 40 | 355 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| 2022 | N.O. | L 10-20 | 18 | 32 | 274 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 2023 | at Hou. | W 31-20 | 19 | 23 | 171 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 | at Balt. | W 22-19 | 27 | 44 | 227 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 2023 | Tenn. | W 23-16 | 11 | 14 | 155 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023 | at Jac. | L 20-37 | 33 | 55 | 329 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
Touchdown numbers include rushing (he's had one in those games, against Dallas).
Twice Minshew threw for big yardage, at Dallas with Philadelphia and at Jacksonville last week (both losses). In his other two losses, he put up modest numbers, and took 9 sacks in those games. Collectively in those 4 losses, he threw 7 interceptions.
Each of his four wins involved him doing less: 242 yards and 2 TDs at the Jets, which was good, and then three games where he passed for 171, 227 and 155 yards, and with 2 total touchdowns in those games.
It's not a huge sample set, but looks like a quarterback who you hope is able to be a game manager, leading some wins where the run game and defense are doing more of the work. If Minshew is asked to carry the offense, sacks and interceptions will probably pile up. They don't really want him engaging in shootouts with other teams.
Maybe the Colts have a good enough ground game to contend and win some games along the way, but I think the defense is lacking, and the passing game will be too.
Ian posted something a while back noting how the Colts receivers (Michael Pittman, Josh Downs) had been better with Minshew in the lineup than Richardson. Assuming that continues, those guys should be fine.
But most likely the Colts will be a .500 or slightly worse team, looking to improve in the offseason before being a playoff contender with Richardson, if he can take another step forward, and stay healthy.
--Andy Richardson