This should be a defensive game, with the possibility of neither offense scoring more than 2 TDs.
Both teams are a lot better defensively. That seems strange, given Atlanta’s struggles on that side of the ball in recent years, but only three defenses this season are allowing fewer yards.
Setting aside a Pick Six, the Falcons have allowed only 11 touchdowns – just under 2 per week. Tampa Bay’s offense, meanwhile, has scored only 8 TDs in five games (1.6 per week). About 2 TDs, it seems, is the right number. Tampa Bay is favored by 2.5, with an over-under of 38.5 points (lowest of the week). …
With six teams on byes and multiple quarterbacks injured, some will be down to mulling whether to use Baker Mayfield. Hopefully not. He’s playing reasonably well, but he’s limited and running a lesser offense. Thus far he’s averaging 218 passing yards, with 7 TDs in five games. He threw for 317 against a bad Chicago defense, but he’s averaged only 193 passing yards in his other four. He’s playing loose and aggressive, at least, with the potential he might dive in for a touchdown on his own. Of the 8 TDs Tampa Bay has scored, he’s been involved in all but one of them. But this isn’t a cupcake matchup.
As poorly as the Falcons have played defensively in recent years, Ryan Neilsen has them playing well now. Only the Browns have allowed fewer passing yards. C.J. Stroud went for 249 against them and Jared Goff went for 243, but everyone else (including Trevor Lawrence) has finished with fewer than 210 passing yards. If you start Mayfield, you’re probably getting about 200 yards and 1-2 TDs. …
While the Bucs probably will finish with below-average passing numbers, it would be tough to sit down Mike Evans. He’s the guy they go to for big plays and in clutch situations. He's caught 3 of their 7 TD passes. Evans left the Saints game with a hamstring injury, but he’s put up elite numbers otherwise, averaging 5.3 catches for 87 yards in his other four games, with 3 TDs.
Chris Godwin doesn’t make as many impact plays but tends to be more involved in general – catching short passes in the middle of the field. Godwin is averaging 5.4 catches for 66 yards, but with no touchdowns. Including last year, Godwin has caught only 3 TDs in his last 20 games. But he’s been heating up recently (in part because of Evans’ hamstring injury); Godwin has caught 14 passes for 191 yards in his last two. …
The Bucs have been unable to get Rachaad White revved up. He’s averaging only 3.3 yards per carry. Five games in, he’s averaging 46 rushing and 20 receiving yards, with his only touchdown coming against the lowly Bears. Unlikely that they get him rolling against this defense.
The Falcons rank 11th against the run, and they’ve been playing better recently, allowing an average of only 88 rushing yards in their last five. The Bucs have scored only one rushing touchdown while Atlanta has allowed only one, making it seem very unlikely White will be scoring.
KeShawn Vaughn should get some change-of-pace work, but he hasn’t done anything that suggests his role will be expanding (he’s carried 15 times for 25 yards in the last two weeks). …
Cade Otton seems to be a capable enough tight end, but they don’t use him a lot. In six games, he’s caught 13 passes for 104 yards and a touchdown. That’s about 17 yards per week. …
Chase McLaughlin looks like a reasonable kicker option, given the likelihood that there will be some stalled red-zone possessions somewhere along the line. The Bucs were simply outmatched by Philadelphia, but he’s kicked multiple field goals in all of their other games. Atlanta, meanwhile, had allowed multiple field goals in three straight prior to their 24-16 loss against Washington. …
The Buccaneers Defense is facing Desmond Ridder, and that could be a very good thing. A third of the way into the season, it’s becoming apparent he’s not a starting-caliber quarterback. In six games, he’s taken 19 sacks, with 6 interceptions and 2 lost fumbles. He’s got 6 turnovers in his last three games, including one returned for a touchdown. Tampa Bay didn’t generate much against Detroit but had multiple takeaways in its four other games, and it’s averaging 3 sacks per week.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 7 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst package. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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