Matchups don’t get much better than playing at home against Washington.
Only two teams have allowed more points. And Washington in the last week has traded away half of its defensive line. But there are limitations in how much can be hoped for from the likes of the Patriots.
It’s a bottom-10 offense for yards, and only the Giants have scored fewer points, making this a matchup of an awful offense against a similarly crappy defense. New England has scored only 13 touchdowns in eight games. The Patriots just lost their leading receiver, Kendrick Bourne, to a season-ending knee injury. So while the hope is that this is an exception week, with the Patriots moving up to 3 TDs, just 2 TDs looks more likely. …
Best to pass on the running game. It’s been slightly better recently, but the Patriots nonetheless have finished with fewer than 100 rushing yards in five straight games. And it’s a one-two-punch backfield. Rhamondre Stevenson has never got rolling; he’s averaging 38 rushing and 22 receiving yards, with 2 TDs all year. Ezekiel Elliott actually has been more effective, averaging almost a yard more per carry (but without much receiving usage). He’s averaging 33 rushing and 7 receiving yards, also with 2 TDs. They’ll face a lesser defense, but one that’s a lot better against the run.
The numbers suggest the Commanders are slightly below average against the run, but they’ve been fine recently. They held the Eagles under 105 rushing yards twice. They held Atlanta to 106 rushing yards. And it’s a defense that’s allowed over 3 times more touchdowns on passes (18) rather than runs (5). Unlikely that this is the rare week where Stevenson and Elliott combine for about 130 yards and a couple of touchdowns. …
Mac Jones has authored two good games this year. He passed for 316 yards and 3 TDs against Philadelphia, and he passed for 272 yards and 2 TDs against the Bills. If you plug him in as a streaming starter, that’s the kind of day you’re hoping for. And on the plus side of the ledger, the opponent couldn’t be better, with Washington having about the leakiest pass defense in the league.
The Commanders have allowed an average of 290 passing yards in their last seven games, with 18 TDs. Justin Fields, of all people, tossed 4 TDs against this group. There is some merit to gambling on Jones. But at the same time, there are also limitations and downside. Jones doesn’t do much of anything as a runner. And if we set aside those two good games, he’s been pretty terrible. Setting aside those two big games, the Patriots in their other six have averaged only 189 passing yards, with 4 TDs in those six games (that’s including not only Jones but also backup quarterbacks). And Jones will be operating without his leading receiver, with Kendrick Bourne lost for the season. A forecast of about 240 yards and 1-2 TDs seems fair. …
If you’re in a PPR league and looking for a wide receiver, Demario Douglas is probably your best option. He’ll probably be New England’s leading receiver the rest of the way, with Kendrick Bourne out for the year. Douglas has been playing well with enhanced playing time recently, catching 9 passes for 79 yards in their last two games. Here, it’s looking like a pass-heavy matchup against a lousy defense. That makes Douglas look like a good candidate to catch a half-dozen balls. We’re slotting Douglas above a whole bunch of better-known wide receivers.
It’s harder to rally around the other wide receivers. DeVante Parker and JuJu Smith-Schuster have been starter-type guys for most of the season, but neither of them has had a game of any note since Week 2. Parker has caught 1 pass three games in a row. Smith-Schuster has caught 15 passes, averaging 5.9 yards per reception. The Patriots actually elevated Jalen Reagor above both of those guys on Sunday. Signed last week, Reagor played a lot more than either of them. But Reagor didn’t do much with those snaps, not catching either of the passes thrown his way. …
This looks like a good week to gamble on Hunter Henry. Back in September, recall, it was looking like he might be the team’s leading receiver. He caught 11 passes and 2 TDs in the first two games. They haven’t used him much recently, but now they’ve got this Bourne injury, forcing them to reconfigure the passing game. And they’re playing the defensively challenged Commanders. On the downside, the Patriots have two other tight ends who’ll play. Mike Gesicki has caught 19 passes for 160 yards and a touchdown, not looking that different from Henry. And with Pharaoh Brown being primarily a blocker, they’ve had some success sneaking him downfield for big plays. They’ve thrown him only 7 passes, but he’s caught all of them, for 170 yards (and with 4 receptions of 24-plus, including a 58-yard touchdown). …
With the Patriots playing a similarly crappy team, it’s reasonable to rank Chad Ryland higher than usual, but he’s not a guy you want to be hitching your hopes too. Having hit only 9 of 13 field goals, it’s not a given he’ll still be around at the end of the season. …
The Patriots Defense has been a disappointment, averaging fewer than 2 sacks and 1 takeaway per week. But this looks like a great spot to plug them in for a week. Sam Howell has been the most defense-friendly quarterback in the league, with at least 4 sacks in every game until taking just one on Sunday. Turnovers haven’t been as good (Washington has 12 in eight games), but this looks like a week where some good things will happen. With Marcus Jones on IR, New England doesn’t appear to have a kick return threat.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 9 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst package. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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