Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Why Bijan Robinson could be on the rise. Washington pass rusher fire sale. And whatever happened to Trevor Lawrence?
Question 1
What to make of Washington shipping off two very good pass rushers? I was going to play them in a juicy match-up vs. New England but now not so sure. Should I expect fewer sacks?
Matt Morse (Glennallen, AK)
Montez Sweat (6.5 sacks) and Chase Young (5 sacks) accounted for almost half of the team’s sacks, so expectations need to be lowered. That should be a below-average pass rush now, further exposing the cracks in the other areas of that defense. It might now be the very worst defenses the rest of the way. (Even with those guys, Washington currently ranks in the bottom 4 in yards and points allowed.) I’m not disagreeing with the moves. Washington isn’t a player, so makes sense to operate with 2024 in mind. But I don’t fully understand the compensation. The players look comparable; they’re both pass rushers in the final years of their contracts. But they got a second-round pick from Chicago – a top-40 pick – but only a third-round pick from the 49ers (a choice that likely will be outside the top 90. I understand San Francisco’s thinking; it’s looking to rent an extra pass rusher for a half season, hoping it will nudge them over the top. But Chicago’s reasoning is tough to figure. They’ve giving up an early second-round pick to give themselves the opportunity to give Sweat to a big contract next spring. I don’t know that any of the league’s other 31 teams would make that move. The Bears misfired on one of these deals last year, giving the Steelers the 32nd pick of the draft for Chase Claypool.
Question 2
Should I trade away Aaron Jones and Christian Kirk to get Bijan Robinson?
Tommy Fan ()
Yes. I would trade a good player and a maybe good player for a great player. Robinson has averaged under 3.3 yards per carry in half of his games, but he’s averaged over 5.5 in the other half, looking like one of the league’s top half dozen running backs. The talent is apparent. I expect there will be more hits and fewer misses in the second half of the season, as he gets more comfortable and the team figures out how best to use him. (Of course, we’ve been waiting three years for Arthur Smith to figure out how to use Kyle Pitts – how’s that going?) Atlanta is benching Desmond Ridder, and I see that as a positive. Taylor Heinicke will probably be a notch better as a passer and a quarterback in general, perhaps elevating the offense. And with him being less mobile, the Falcons no longer will be using quarterback sneaks and bootlegs around the goal line. In Ridder’s eight starts, he scored half of the team’s rushing touchdowns. With Heinicke, we should see Robinson (and also Tyler Allgeier) running in the touchdowns.
Question 3
What in the hell is wrong with Trevor Lawrence? My bench QBs have outscored him 6 times this year and I'm about put of the playoff picture with this week's loss. Incredibly discouraging following the rankings and starting him over and over.
Scott Anderson (Las Vegas, NV)
It’s particularly frustrating because we’ve seen Lawrence do it. He averaged 254 passing and 17 rushing yards in his final 10 games last year, with a combined 21 touchdowns. Those are top-5 numbers. It makes sense at this point in his career for him to ascend up into the tier of quarterbacks including Burrow, Herbert and Lamar Jackson. I’m not sure what went wrong. They started the season without both of their offensive tackles from last year (with Cam Robinson suspended and Jawaan Taylor signing with KC). But on the plus side, they replaced Marvin Jones with Calvin Ridley, seemingly a huge upgrade. Lawrence isn’t alone, of course. Most teams are having problems scoring. Fifteen offenses are averaging fewer than 2 TDs per week. Defenses seem to have gotten better. What exactly is going on, I’m not sure. Perhaps defenses are now doing a better job of using technology – player tracking chips and game films to thoroughly break down what players and offenses are doing. And it seems like more defenses have figured out that it’s better to avoid big plays, making offenses patiently string together long drives, knowing that there will probably be a breakdown – a sack, a penalty a drop – eventually. I know that yards-per-completion is down this year, while completion percentage is up. Lawrence has completed at least two thirds of his passes in all but one game, but he hasn’t thrown 3 TDs in any games (and has thrown 2 TDs only twice).