This game might be higher scoring.
While their season averages are poor, New England has scored 2-3 touchdowns in four straight games (after scoring only 6 touchdowns in their first five). The Colts, meanwhile, have allowed 25 touchdowns; only the Cardinals have allowed more. The game will be played in an indoor stadium in Germany – ideal conditions. …
It's an especially good situation for the running game. The Colts are 24th defending it, and have allowed a league-worst 15 touchdowns on the ground -- multiple rushing scores in two-thirds of their games. So a good week to use Rhamondre Stevenson. He scored on a 64-yard breakaway last week on his way to a season-high 87 yards. His overall rushing numbers are modest (44 yards per game and 3.7 per attempt), but Ezekiel Elliott has been no better (31 and 3.8), so Stevenson should continue to operate as the lead back.
With this being a favorable matchup, Stevenson should finish over his averages, and Elliott (playing about 40 percent of the time) might make it into a lineup in deeper leagues. Stevenson is also getting most of the chances in the passing game (29 catches for 215 yards, compared to 16 for 74 for Elliott). Just 3 rushing scores, and 2 for Elliott, but odds of scoring go way up here. Stevenson caught a touchdown when the Patriots blew out the Colts 26-3 last season. …
Embattled would fairly describe Mac Jones; Patriots fans have been accustomed to a higher standard of quarterback play. He's averaging 207 passing yards, with just 10 touchdown passes and a league-worst 9 interceptions. But there's not much around him and the backup options wouldn't be any better, so Jones will continue to start and then everything will be reevaluated in the offseason.
The Colts have a bottom-10 pass defense, allowing 256 yards per game. But that’s largely fueled by a few big games by quarterbacks a lot more capable than Jones (Stroud, Stafford and Carr); Indianapolis has also allowed just 10 touchdown passes. With the Colts weaker against the run, that's probably where most of New England's offense will come from. Probably 220 yards and a touchdown. Jones doesn't run (7-8 yards per game throughout his career, with 1 TD). …
The passing game will probably take a back seat to the ground game, but Demario Douglas still merits consideration. He's the closest thing the offense has to a reliable wideout, catching 4-5 passes in three straight games. New England has only one other healthy wide receiver, JuJu Smith-Schuster, who's averaging even 3 catches per week, and the veteran has been hit-or-miss: three games with 4-6 catches, but three with just 1 reception. Smith-Schuster had a costly drop in last week's loss, which won't necessarily impact his playing time.
If there's another involved wideout (and there might not be) perhaps DeVante Parker. He missed the last game with a concussion, but has caught 15 passes in the seven games he's been available for. But only Douglas looks like a safe choice. Just 10 touchdown passes allowed by the Colts, but 8 have gone to wide receivers. …
Hunter Henry had a touchdown catch on a pretty throw last week; he has 2 more touchdowns on the season (3) than any other receiver the Patriots have available. After a midseason lull, he's caught 9 passes for 94 yards in his last three.
Mike Gesicki hasn't been a regular target (no catches last week, and just 11 in his last seven games). But he’s playing a bunch and they’ve got a lot of receiver injuries right now.
…After a shaky start, Chad Ryland has now converted his last 6 field goal attempts; he's also perfect on extra points. But volume hasn't been great in this offense. He's kicked more than one field goal in just two games all season. …
The Patriots Defense has been one of the more surprising no-shows, with just 18 sacks and 9 takeaways in nine games. (Top-3 in both a year ago.) Gardner Minshew has taken 15 sacks while throwing 5 interceptions in about seven games, but only Baltimore and Cleveland (defenses better and more opportunistic than this one) really compiled much against him.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 10 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst package. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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