We have sent out a correction email and updated the Week 13 rankings to now include Washington players.
The Broncos are 3.5-point underdogs, but that might be a good thing. Since giving up 70 points at Miami, Denver has switched to an ultra-conservative style, trying to minimize turnovers and sacks. They’ve won six of their last eight games, but with lesser numbers. They’ve averaged only 176 passing and 123 rushing yards in those eight games, with 16 TDs.
But here’s an opponent with the ability to score some points, potentially luring Denver out of its shell. Houston isn’t anything special defensively. It’s slightly above average in scoring defense, but only 10 teams have allowed more yards. The Broncos should score 2-plus touchdowns, and probably with more yards than what they’ve been putting up recently.
Russell Wilson, for starters, should be less of a game manager this week. He’s averaged only 176 passing yards in his last eight games, but he’ll do more in this one. That will occur by necessity, should the Broncos fall behind, and this isn’t a good pass defense. The Texans rank 27th against the pass, allowing 268 yards per week. Baker Mayfield passed for 264 yards and 2 TDs in this building a month ago, while Kyler Murray passed for 214, with a TD pass and a TD run. Four teams have passed for over 340 yards against this defense. So looks like a week, we’re figuring, where Wilson has a good chance at 230-plus yards. And he’s been effective at closing drives with touchdown passes all year.
The Broncos have scored only 23 touchdowns, but 20 have come on passes. It can fairly be pointed out that the Texans have allowed only 11 TD passes; only the Ravens and Browns have allowed fewer. But with the way the Broncos have played, Wilson seems more likely to throw 2 TDs rather than just one. And they’ve also got him contributing key plays as a scrambler; he’s averaging 26 rushing yards, and with a touchdown last week.
The matchup isn’t as good for the running game. If the Broncos start passing more this week (which is what we’re expecting) that should mean fewer rushing attempts. And it’s a defense that’s been good against the run. The Texans rank 8th in run defense, allowing only 95 yards per game. The Broncos have averaged 123 rushing yards during this eight-week run, but unlikely they get near that mark this week. Javonte Williams is at least a featured back. He’s dominating the playing time. He’s averaged 70 rushing and 16 receiving yards in his last five games. But he hasn’t run for a touchdown all year (he’s caught 2 on flips around the goal line).
Jaleel McLaughlin popped some runs earlier in the year, averaging over 7.6 yards per carry in four different games. But he hasn’t done much of anything recently; he’s carried 9 times for 13 yards in his last three games. Samaje Perine comes off his best running game of the season – 7 carries for 55 yards, with a touchdown – but he ran for only 79 yards (on 21 carries) in his previous nine games combined. More usually, Perine’s most notable contributions are in the passing game. With the team trying to protect Russell Wilson from throwing interceptions, they’ve had him throwing lots of balls to his running backs. Perine has been by far the best in that capacity. He’s averaging 3 catches per week, and he’s averaged 10.2 yards on those receptions – excellent for a running back. Williams has caught only 7 fewer passes, but he’s down at 5 yards per catch. McLaughlin has caught 19 passes, but he’s down at 4.4 per.
If you’re buying into our theory that the Broncos will pass more this week, it makes sense to slot the wide receivers higher. If Wilson throws for an extra 50 or so yards, somebody will need to catch those balls. Courtland Sutton has been their top guy. The overall production has been modest – 4.4 catches for 51 yards so far – but he’s caught 8 of their 20 touchdowns. Three times he’s come up with very impressive contested catches in the end zone; they don’t have another player who can do that. If there’s an extra 50 or so yards in play here, that should give Sutton a good opportunity to catch 6 passes. Other than catching only one touchdown, Jerry Jeudy has been pretty similar; he’s averaged 3.7 catches for 44 yards in his 10 games. As with Sutton, this looks like a week where he’s got a chance to catch a couple more passes.
The Broncos moved Marvin Mims up into a starter-type role three games ago, and the results have been underwhelming – 4 catches for 36 yards in those three games. And to be clear, there’s not enough there to recommend him. But be reminded that Mims had 4 catches of 38-plus yards in the first month of the season. With the Broncos perhaps passing more this week, this could be the game he hits on a 70-yard touchdown. And Mims is also one of the top few kick returners in the league, with a 99-yard touchdown on a kickoff return and 2 punt returns over 30 yards.
Adam Trautman caught a 1-yard touchdown last week, but he’s primarily a blocker. In his last 10 games, he’s caught 11 passes for 91 yards, with 2 TDs. Not a consideration. The Broncos probably will get more production from Greg Dulcich, should they activate him, but that won’t necessarily happen (they did not on Tuesday designate him to return).
Wil Lutz looks like an above-average kicker. The trend nowadays tends to be to try for touchdowns on fourth downs, but Sean Payton has been willing to settle for the safe points, helping Lutz average 8.2 points per week. He’ll face a defense that’s allowing an average of 7.5 against the position.
The Broncos Defense looks like a below-average choice. It has a league-high 12 fumble recoveries, but there’s a lot of chance involved in that number. Denver has only 23 sacks, and that’s a more reliably predictable metric. Regardless, the opponent here has a rookie quarterback who’s been tough to pin down. C.J. Stroud has thrown only 5 interceptions in his 11 starts, and with only 26 sacks. Denver gets a plus on special teams, with Marvin Mims having scored on a kickoff return previously.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 13 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst package. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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