All fantasy players want an edge. Gatting a grasp on what players benefited the most from the new rules MLB instituted prior to the 2023 season can provide such an edge. Todd Zola digs deep into the batted ball data to unveil what type of players took the best advantage of the new rules.

There has been a lot of discussion about the huge spike in stolen bases resulting from the new rules instituted by MLB prior to the 2023 season. More steals weren’t the only repercussion as legislating the shift had the intended effect of increasing base hits, which in turn helped generate more offense.

Shift versus Shade

In 2022, a shift was present on 37.5% of all plate appearances. Right-handed batters faced a shift at a 21.7% clip while lefty swingers hit into a shift 61.8% of the time. A shift was defined as three infielders being on the same side of second base. This alignment was outlawed with two infielders required on either side of second base. In addition, all four infielders must be stationed in front of the outfield grass.

Beginning in 2023, MLB introduced new classifications for defensive alignments permitted by the new rules. Standard zones were set up for each infielder, essentially dividing the infield into four equal slices. A shaded alignment is defined as at least one infielder being positioned outside of his standard zone. Last year, teams deployed a shaded alignment in 22% of plate appearances, with righties seeing it only 6.8% of the time, and left-handers at a 43.7% rate.

There has always been another classification which encompasses all alignments not deemed standard or shift (prior to 2022) or shaded (beginning last season). This is labeled a strategic alignment and is primarily utilized with runners on base, such as playing the infield in or guarding the lines to prevent doubles.

Batted Ball Outcomes in 2022 and 2023

Since alignments are designed to defend specific types of batted balls, and handedness of the batter matters, it’s best to look at the BABIP (batting average of balls in play) for hard grounders, outfield line drives and fly balls, distinguished by left-handed and right-handed batters. The fate of some events such as soft ground balls and infield line drives are more dictated by happenstance than positioning, so they’re excluded from the investigation. The BABIP formula excludes strikeouts and home runs, while accounting for sacrifice flies:

BABIP = (Hits – homers)/(At bats – homers – strikeouts + sacrifice files)

Better defenders help keep BABIP low, as does positioning players in the area where the hitter most often directs the ball. Legislating the shift reduced the number of players defending that area. On paper, it worked with the 2022 BABIP of .290 jumping seven points to .297 last season.

Left-Handed Batters

Right-Handed Batters

Key:

• HGB: Hard ground ball
• OLD: Outfield line drive
• FB: Fly ball

Observations

Fly ball BABIP decreased for both left- and right-handed batters. This makes sense since outfield alignment (which may have included an infield rover prior to 2023) is more about converting line drives into outs than fly balls, and having the outfielders more evenly spread out could help outfielder chase more of them down. That said, other factors are involved with fly balls, such as characteristics of the baseball used each season, temperature, humidity and wind. As such, the change in BABIP can’t be completely attributed to the legislation of the shift.

Temperature, wind, etc. don’t affect ground balls, so the .014 increase in left-handed hard ground ball BABIP largely emanates from shift legislation, though some is due to normal variance. That is, if nothing at all is changed from one year to the next, BABIP would not always be identical.

The largest BABIP difference was in outfield line drives, with the level from lefty swingers being predictable greater than their right-handed brethren. This is important because outfield line drives falling safely have a better chance to result in an extra base hit than grounder. However, of the three classifications studied, outfield line drives occurred at the lowest rate:

Players Whose BABIP Displayed the Most Improvement

Using one season of data to draw definitive conclusions is a slippery slope. BABIP is subjected to yearly variance, so listing the players with the largest improvement isn’t necessarily a reflection of how they’ll perform this season. However, it is an important piece of the puzzle, so here are the players whose hard ground ball and outfield line drive BABIP exhibited the largest increase from the previous season. A minimum of 400 plate appearances was needed each season, since we’re most concerned about fantasy-relevant players.

Hard Ground Ball

Overall, the BABIP for hard grounders off the bat of right-handers didn’t change, yet there are several righty swingers populating the above list. This illustrates the intrinsic BABIP variance, reinforcing the change seen in left-handers and switch-hitters may not be solely due to eliminating the shift. However, the top seven differences are for left-handers and switch-hitters, so the alignment certainly had an effect.

Outfield Line Drive

Here, right-handed batters dominate the top of the list. There is no logical explanation other than variance. Only 21.7% of righties faced a shift in 2023, and that was mostly in the infield. Again, this isn’t to say some batters, left-or right-handed didn’t benefit from legislating the shift on their outfield line drives; it just means there are other factors influencing the outcome, not the least of which is happenstance.

When it comes to using the 2023 numbers to evaluate hitters for 2024 fantasy drafts, left-handed ground ball hitters are the most likely to experience a higher BABIP. It may have failed to manifest for some last season, but the sage approach is expecting it to occur this time around.

Todd Zola is an award-winning fantasy baseball writer and 2020 inductee into the Fantasy Sports Writers Hall of Fame. He's the content provider for the 2024 Fantasy Baseball Index Draft Kit, available now. To purchase, click HERE.