Dalvin Cook has cleared waivers. He’s free to sign with any team. And I believe there will be a market for his services.
I don’t think it will be a sizzling market, but I see three playoff-bound teams that will likely give him some thought.
Dallas makes some sense. Tony Pollard hasn’t had a great year, and they’ve got modest Rico Dowdle behind him. Dowdle didn’t play in Week 17 (though he’s returned to practice in a limited capacity).
Kansas City, perhaps. Isiah Pacheco has had some injury issues, and Jerick McKinnon is on IR. It’s a team that also has a modest backup running back (Clyde Edwards-Helaire). Andy Reid has brought in Cook-type veteran backs in the past, including LeSean McCoy and LeVeon Bell.
And Baltimore. The Ravens like to run the ball, and they’ve lost two key runners along the way – J.K. Dobbins early in the season and Keaton Mitchell recently. They’ve had a tendency to sign veteran running backs (Mike Davis and Kenyan Drake last year, and Devonta Freeman, LeVeon Bell and Latavius Murray the previous season.
I expect Cook will sign with one of these teams within a few days. I don’t think he would have asked for his release from the Jets (forfeiting some money) unless he believed some team would be signing him. His agent may have quietly spoken with a team. Of course, it was reasonable to assume the same about Zach Ertz, and he’s still sitting on the open market.
Cook, of course, hasn’t made much of an impact this year. He’s carried 67 times for 214 yards as a backup for the Jets, averaging 3.2 per attempt. But I think that’s more a reflection of the cast around him than an indication that Cook simply can’t play anymore.
Cook in the 2022 season ran for 1,173 yards for Minnesota, averaging 4.4 per carry (over a half yard more than Alexander Mattison, who was handed the starting job). I don’t think Cook is quite that back anymore, but I think he’s good enough that there will be a team that believes he’ll be better than their current second-string back.
I played around with some numbers on this. In the last 20 years, there have been 34 running backs who’ve run for over 1,000 yards when they were 27 years old. Twelve of those backs (just over a third) came back the next year and averaged even more yards per carry. Half of those 34 backs declined by at least a third of a yard per carry.
In the decline department, Cook comes in next-to-last on the list below, above only the franchise back he replaced in Minnesota (Adrian Peterson ran for 2,097 yards in 2012, averaging 6.0 per carry, but slipped to 4.5 the following year).
| 27-YEAR-OLDS RUSHING FOR 1,000 YARDS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Att | Yards | Avg | Next | Diff |
| 2006 | Chester Taylor, Min. | 303 | 1,216 | 4.01 | 5.38 | 1.37 |
| 2009 | Ryan Grant, G.B. | 282 | 1,253 | 4.44 | 5.63 | 1.19 |
| 2022 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 302 | 1,525 | 5.05 | 6.07 | 1.02 |
| 2002 | Duce Staley, Phil. | 269 | 1,029 | 3.83 | 4.82 | .99 |
| 2006 | Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 314 | 1,132 | 3.61 | 4.38 | .77 |
| 2010 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 330 | 1,241 | 3.76 | 4.40 | .64 |
| 2013 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 301 | 1,257 | 4.18 | 4.66 | .48 |
| 2004 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 353 | 1,696 | 4.80 | 5.08 | .28 |
| 2012 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 248 | 1,094 | 4.41 | 4.63 | .22 |
| 2003 | Fred Taylor, Jac. | 345 | 1,572 | 4.56 | 4.71 | .15 |
| 2005 | LaMont Jordan, Oak. | 272 | 1,025 | 3.77 | 3.81 | .04 |
| 2013 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 259 | 1,287 | 4.97 | 5.01 | .04 |
| 2012 | Shonn Greene, NYJ | 276 | 1,063 | 3.85 | 3.83 | -.02 |
| 2005 | Thomas Jones, Chi. | 314 | 1,335 | 4.25 | 4.09 | -.16 |
| 2002 | Tiki Barber, NYG | 304 | 1,387 | 4.56 | 4.37 | -.19 |
| 2016 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 205 | 1,043 | 5.09 | 4.89 | -.20 |
| 2006 | Brian Westbrook, Phil. | 240 | 1,217 | 5.07 | 4.79 | -.28 |
| 2007 | Willie Parker, Pitt. | 321 | 1,316 | 4.10 | 3.77 | -.33 |
| 2008 | Clinton Portis, Was. | 342 | 1,487 | 4.35 | 3.98 | -.37 |
| 2012 | BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cin. | 278 | 1,094 | 3.94 | 3.44 | -.50 |
| 2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 348 | 1,815 | 5.22 | 4.68 | -.54 |
| 2005 | Reuben Droughns, Cle. | 309 | 1,232 | 3.99 | 3.45 | -.54 |
| 2015 | Chris Ivory, NYJ | 247 | 1,070 | 4.33 | 3.75 | -.58 |
| 2007 | Justin Fargas, Oak. | 222 | 1,009 | 4.55 | 3.91 | -.64 |
| 2012 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 276 | 1,243 | 4.50 | 3.86 | -.64 |
| 2009 | Cedric Benson, Cin. | 301 | 1,251 | 4.16 | 3.46 | -.70 |
| 2005 | Edgerrin James, Ind. | 360 | 1,506 | 4.18 | 3.44 | -.74 |
| 2006 | Larry Johnson, K.C. | 416 | 1,789 | 4.30 | 3.54 | -.76 |
| 2006 | Rudi Johnson, Cin. | 341 | 1,309 | 3.84 | 2.92 | -.92 |
| 2022 | Jamaal Williams, Det. | 262 | 1,066 | 4.07 | 3.04 | -1.03 |
| 2006 | Ladell Betts, Was. | 245 | 1,154 | 4.71 | 3.60 | -1.11 |
| 2004 | Ahman Green, G.B. | 259 | 1,163 | 4.49 | 3.31 | -1.18 |
| 2022 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 264 | 1,173 | 4.44 | 3.19 | -1.25 |
| 2012 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 348 | 2,097 | 6.03 | 4.54 | -1.49 |
Ezekiel Elliott looks like a fair comp. He’s not the back he’s been in the past, but he’s been a use backup and fill-in starter for the Patriots.
—Ian Allan