Every Saturday morning, I'll take a quick look at all the week's games, offering my own brief take on what I think will happen, as well as touching on significant injury news since our Weekly came out. I'll check in over the course of the day to answer questions, too.
What follows is a brief look at all the games with how I'd react in my own lineups to injury developments or other news. The official rankings are the ones in the Weekly. Those take precedence. But sometimes players are very close, and in those cases I'm glad to offer opinions on how I'd approach those situations. Sometimes I like certain players more or less than Ian, and sometimes I have different risk tolerance with injuries etc.
Browns at Texans: This is the one AFC game I want much of anything to do with fantasy wise. (Arguably for the entire postseason.) It's probably the only game that won't be affected by weather from now until the Super Bowl. Indoors, both teams have some defensive injuries, both teams have hot quarterbacks. I think Houston will win. They're home, they're an up-and-coming team, I feel like the clock is a little more likely to strike midnight here on Joe Flacco than C.J. Stroud. But certainly Cleveland has comparable or better offensive talent (most notably, I don't like Houston's options at running back or No. 2 receiver), although the Browns also have some issues after Amari Cooper and David Njoku.
In any case, I'm expecting a good game, with more offense than defense -- a 27-24 type of game. If I were betting it (oh yeah, I am) I'd take the points that Houston is getting. They should either win or lose by less than a field goal. I don't think either team has any chance of winning next week, so my investments in either roster are very slim (and I'm using several players in a use-each-player-only-once for the postseason competition -- Nico, Njoku, maybe Amari).
Dolphins at Kansas City: Some discussion of this game only being aired on Peacock. I agree, it sucks. I still have Peacock because I had to buy it a few weeks back to watch, I believe, Chargers-Bills or something. I will be cancelling Peacock once they stop these games. Like I need another streaming service. As for the game itself, it's apparently going to be played in negative temperatures. Ian did a factoid showing that some games have been a little better offensively than you might expect, but there's no question things will be slowed down and we're not going to get the kind of track meet you might expect if the game were being played in Miami.
In general, I'm avoiding this game. I think Kansas City will win, but not with big numbers. I pivoted from James Cook to Isiah Pacheco in one league, mostly on the idea that Pacheco should play full-time including in the passing game, while Cook might lose some work (goal line and maybe even a few passing snaps) to Playoff Lenny Fournette. Not a lot, but I just like Pacheco a little more as a runner.
Passing wise, Tyreek Hill and Rashee Rice are clear No. 1s, but playing in subzero temperatures in what might be more of a slog than you'd hope for. And if Miami wins they're probably going to Baltimore, barring a Steelers upset, so I don't have any problem leaving Tyreek off my playoff roster, and out of lineup this week, too.
Steelers at Bills: If you think the weather in Kansas City is unappealing, this game is saying hold my beer. Twenty degrees. Snow. And 27 mph winds, with gusts even higher. In what way can this possibly be good for Stefon Diggs, George Pickens or any of the receivers or quarterbacks? I'm torn with what to do with a competition where you get one player from each team. I'm looking at either Josh Allen and some Raven in a RB-WR-TE flex spot, or Lamar Jackson and some Bill. The problem is I can see the Ravens marching to the Super Bowl without Lamar putting up big numbers. If the Bills play three games, I think Allen will be better. But once I choose a QB, I have to find an attractive skill guy from the other team. It's not really Cook or Gus Edwards. Stefon isn't going to a great game in this weather. Zay might also be in lousy weather the next couple of weeks. Isaiah Likely might have to deal with Mark Andrews coming back. Etc.
Anyway, I expect the Bills to win, but I love taking the points with the Steelers. Game should be lower-scoring, Mike Tomlin should have the guys playing tough (even without T.J. Watt). Allen might/will give the Steelers an opportunity for takeaways. And again, either the aftermath or the midst of a blizzard. None of it seems like a great spot for big fantasy numbers. I'll consider James Cook, but to me he's not quite as appealing as he could be, if conditions were better.
Packers at Cowboys: I was a Packers fan growing up. Pretty much with them all the way through the Favre exodus. Lots of big playoff meetings (most of which went Dallas' way) in that era, although it's been more Packers lately. Dallas' recent playoff disappointments, and Jordan Love's hot play, have me thinking Green Bay could spring the upset. It shouldn't happen -- the Cowboys offense should be awesome, as always at home, and their defense is better and should be able to stop the Packers at times -- but it could. That makes me wary of investing too heavily in Dallas in playoff leagues. I'm also not investing much in the Packers, remembering this is a team that lost back-to-back games to the Giants and then Bucs (badly) just a few weeks back.
Dak, CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson, maybe even Brandin Cooks and Tony Pollard -- those guys are starters this week. For the Packers, Love and Aaron Jones and maybe Jayden Reed are also viable. Should be a higher-scoring game (again, I love the NFC slate a lot more than the AFC), with both teams at least in the 20s and maybe the winner in the 30s. I'm honestly a little surprised this game isn't the Saturday night game, sticking the KC-Miami game on Sunday afternoon, but nobody asked me.
Rams at Lions: I do not think much of Detroit. Lousy defense. Coach bigger on attitude and emotion than prudence and smarts. I'm not anti-ex-players, I'm just anti coaches making decisions that are bold and aggressive at the expense of common sense. A sure 3 points is sometimes the right call, but it never seems to cross Dan Campbell's mind that that might be the case. In contrast, Sean McVay has a team that I thought would be a struggling doormat this year winning 7 of 8, with its lone loss in overtime at Baltimore (a team that blew the Lions off the field). I expect the Rams to win this game, and I like Stafford, Kyren, Nacua and Kupp.
Could I be wrong, sure. The Lions are really good on offense, and the Rams aren't great defensively. Detroit should have beat Dallas (I'm inclined to blame Campbell), and did beat the Broncos soundly, about the only team that had a big offensive day against Denver the second half of the season. Amon-Ra is awesome, Sam LaPorta went from a DNP on Thursday to a full practice on Friday, I guess he's OK, and their running backs are very good, Goff versus the Coach that gave up draft picks to get rid of him is arguably more compelling a motivation than Stafford back in Detroit. Should be a wild shootout. But I'll take the Rams.
Eagles at Bucs: Not a huge fan of Monday night playoff games. Certainly will hurt whoever wins this game if they go to San Francisco or Dallas next week. I get that the league doesn't care, another night of football, whoohoo! But I don't need a Monday night game in mid-January.
As for the game itself, we all agree that the Philly defense is pretty awful right now. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rachaad White; those guys look solid. But can I really get fully on board with Baker Mayfield and a Bucs team that went 9-8, lost at home to New Orleans a couple of week ago, and didn't even score a touchdown in its last game at Carolina? The Eagles aren't going far in the playoffs, but let's not act like the Bucs have been impressive in many recent games. They won a terrible division over three teams that either did or should fire their coaches. I consider this game a 20-17 tossup, and I'm not heavily investing in players on either side. Speaking of which, I don't know if A.J. Brown is playing at all, hasn't practiced either day. Forced to choose, I'd bet on Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, but not with much enthusiasm.
Enjoy the games.
