It's annually the best weekend of the NFL season, and this one didn't disappoint. Especially the two primetime games, back-and-forth affairs where a play or two made the difference between moving on and going home. One team that fell has mostly positive thoughts; the other just frustration.
Texans at Ravens: A problem some fans have is believing that what happened one week will carry over into the next week. I think momentum is a real thing, but it's an in-game occurrence -- Houston's momentum from blowing out Cleveland last week wasn't going to affect the Ravens. Baltimore did start off slow, and this game was 10-10 at halftime, but that's more to do (I think) with them not having played a meaningful game in several weeks, some guys not having played at all since Week 17. Houston came to play and to their credit made things very interesting for a half; they also didn't take any sacks or commit any turnovers. But there was nothing surprising about them being unable to run the ball and not having much going in the passing game either, with one really good wide receiver and not much else.
Lamar Jackson led a game-opening touchdown drive with some nice passes and runs -- speaking of which, he's been in the league long enough that he should really have some idea of how to slide -- then didn't do much for a little while. But he was pretty much perfect after halftime, with some sharp throws and huge runs. Kudos to him for getting over that divisional round hump. Key fantasy takeaways, Zay Flowers is a legit No. 1 and the team's other top-2 target is going to be whoever is starting at tight end. They're not going to feature Odell Beckham, he was less involved than Nelson Agholor. Maybe Beckham surprises me with a big game one of the next two games, if Baltimore gets that far, but he just seems like a bit player. Baltimore backfield seems like a three-man committee right now, and with Lamar running in 2 TDs, that makes Gus Edwards pretty much unusable. Justice Hill and Dalvin Cook, too.
Packers at 49ers: It's not often you'll see a team as thoroughly outplayed for most of this game as San Francisco was win anyway. First of all, when Deebo Samuel -- who was clearly going to be a big part of the game plan -- was knocked out, the offense looked broken. Considering his importance to the offense, why on earth San Francisco is using him on kick returns, statistically the most dangerous play in any NFL game in terms of injuries, confounds me. I don't care if it's the playoffs. I don't care if it's the Super Bowl. Deebo is not Devin Hester. He's one of the offense's best and key players, and the minuscule possibility of him bringing a kick back for a touchdown is in no way, shape or form greater than the possibility of him getting hurt on a kick return. As we saw in this game, with him getting hurt on a pretty physical tackle which certainly would have been no lesser on a return. Kyle Shanahan, smart guy. This is an idiotic choice. Perhaps moot pending the results of testing on Samuel's shoulder, maybe Shanahan will try McCaffrey or Aiyuk on returns next week.
Apologies for the tangent. Brock Purdy legit played bad in this game. The rain was apparently causing him problems, he started out with gloves and then ditched them, but he was off-target for most of the game, with passes landing in complete sometimes in the midst of a sea of Packers; fortunate not to have multiple balls picked off (aside from Darnell Savage's excruciating, for Packers fans, dropped Pick Six as bad as the one Dak threw last week. Purdy kept it together and led the game-winning drive. I'm not taking that away from him. But he was fortunate to be down only 4 at the time. San Francisco is not winning next week unless Purdy plays better. Others worth of criticism include Shanahan for not running McCaffrey a little more than he did, and there were a couple of bad drops, one by Kittle (and very little contributions from Brandon Aiyuk). Credit to Jauan Jennings for stepping up with a fantastic catch on the final drive the play after Kittle's drop -- a game-saving reception.
As for Green Bay, not much bad to say. Aaron Jones was great again. Jordan Love was mostly great until the final period, with a careless interception to end things. But with a better spot on a fourth-down sneak, more luck on a couple of picks his defense didn't get for him, and a made field goal, Green Bay probably wins. Regarding the missed field goal that proved critical, blaming Anders Carlson is missing the point. He came into the game having missed a field goal or extra point in four straight and nine of his last eleven games. Whose fault is him being out there to miss that kick yesterday: his, or the team that stubbornly kept sending him out there week after week despite his proven unreliability? I have no sympathy for a team that ignores extensive evidence that a change should be made. I'm not anti-second chances with rookies, but if you have a rookie running back who keeps fumbling, you don't keep giving him in the ball in key situations; you replace him so he doesn't potentially cost you a game. Failing on Green Bay's part here. Bright future and stuff for Love and company, hopefully at some point they decide on 2-3 receivers they like best, will help fantasy drafters.
Bucs at Lions: This was a very good game, oddly low-scoring for a while, with teams having difficulties finishing drives with touchdowns and covering receivers a little better than anticipated. Then it turned into more of a slugfest in the second half, and several players stepped up with big performances -- Jahmyr Gibbs more than David Montgomery, Mike Evans more than Chris Godwin. I'm not sure many expected the Bucs to go in and outslug the Lions, and indeed that didn't happen. But I think you had to come away impressed with the Bucs, and Baker Mayfield specifically. Yeah he threw the pick that ended any chance of a comeback, but it's a situation where you've got to make an aggressive throw and if that was too aggressive, well, too conservative won't get it done either. Saw something with people saying Baker has a chance to make himself some money on this final drive. No: he already made himself some money. The Bucs are going to pay big to keep him around, and if they don't for whatever strange reason, someone else will.
So the Lions are headed to San Francisco, and it's hard not to feel they have a good chance at the upset. San Francisco's last two meaningful home games they got knocked around by Baltimore and were fortunate to get by the Packers. Not really sure why the opening point spread had them as a 7-point favorite, especially since they may not have Deebo Samuel. This is not me trying to drum up interest in a game like the networks will be doing. The Lions are good and can absolutely win this game. Should be fun.
Kansas City at Bills: The best game of the weekend, but there was also a certain inevitability to the outcome I think. Between Buffalo's many defensive injuries, and the familiarity of Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Andy Reid to this kind of game, the Kansas City offense just couldn't be stopped all game. Yes the Bills missed a late field goal, but there is zero doubt in my mind if he'd made it that Kansas City would have scored the winning points in regulation. The Bills needed a touchdown on that last drive, and through a combination of things they didn't make the plays. (Kansas City really should have been up 10 points then, too, if not for the team's inexplicable fascination with Mecole Hardman. Somebody want to explain this one to me? After the first time he lost a fumble near the goal line on a run, I would have mothballed the guy. Kansas City instead opted to give him the ball near the goal line in a huge situation AGAIN. Perhaps it was the element of surprise: "Buffalo will never guess that we'd be stupid enough to put the game in the hands of this unreliable, over-drafted gadget player twice...")
Anyway. Because Kansas City failed to put itself up two scores, Buffalo had a chance to drive the field and win with a last-minute touchdown. Let's count the ways they came up short. First, Stefon Diggs dropped a perfectly thrown bomb. I don't know what's been up with Diggs, I understand it's not all on him but he's been a huge disappointment with his chances for half a season so him coming up small again yesterday was no surprise. A foot injury maybe a factor, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt perhaps. Buffalo still managed to drive the field, with Josh Allen and Khalil Shakir making plays, but as soon as they got into kind-of-makeable field goal range, they mucked it up. Shakir was open in the end zone but Allen's throw was short, probably because his lineman got shoved into him near release. But two other times Allen passed up shorter throws for first downs on low-percentage downfield attempts that were incomplete. They needed a touchdown, I understand, but they could have got there in chunks -- leaving Kansas City no time to win. Instead they wound up settling for a field goal that it was not surprising when they missed it. And again, if they'd made it, Kansas City would have had nearly 2 full minutes to get into field goal range themselves. Pile on Tyler Bass if you want, but the real failing was Buffalo settling for a tying field goal in the first place.
Buffalo, sadly, is experiencing something as old as the NFL itself: one team struggling to get over the hump against a certain opponent in the playoffs. Buffalo was on the other side of this when it went to four straight Super Bowls, with Kansas City, Cleveland and Miami among the teams that just couldn't make that next step. The Favre Packers lost to Dallas in the postseason three straight years. It's hard to win Super Bowls; hard to win these games. And tough to face a long offseason after working so hard to get there. My sympathies, Josh Allen and Bills fans.
So now it's Kansas City at Baltimore. I'm torn on this one. On the one hand I've been with Baltimore all season, thinking they could have won every game they've lost this year. On the other hand, betting against Mahomes and Reid doesn't seem like good business these days. I don't know. I see Baltimore is favored by 3.5. Looking at it today, I think I would take Kansas City and the points.
We'll talk about these two games here all week, and maybe I'll feel differently by Friday.