One of the more prevalent pre-draft debates involves the Chicago Bears and the No. 1 overall pick. Will they draft a quarterback and trade Justin Fields, or will they trade the pick for a huge haul and use those picks to build around him? I'm not afraid to take a stand: Fields is gone.
Not only is he gone, but I think Bears fans will be surprised at what he does (or doesn't) bring in return. It doesn't matter that he was the 11th overall pick three years ago, any more than it matters that Zach Wilson was the 2nd overall pick three years ago. Wilson is going to be released, not traded. Fields, I'm thinking a mid-round pick, maybe.
While Fields had a couple of big games last year, and has put up huge rushing stats all along (making him a nice asset in fantasy leagues), he hasn't developed much as a passer. And this isn't Jordan Love sitting on a bench; Fields has actually started 10-plus games in each of his first three seasons. And yet, he's put up some of the worst passing numbers in the league while doing so.
Over the past three years, there have been 18 seasons of a quarterback starting at least half the time and averaging under 200 passing yards per game. Only two guys have done it all three years: Wilson and Fields. Yesterday's subject of discussion, Kenny Pickett, is the other guy who's done it multiple times in that span.
| QUARTERBACKS AVERAGING UNDER 200 PASSING YARDS, 2021-2023 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | St | Yards | TD | Y/G |
| 2023 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 13 | 2562 | 16 | 197.1 |
| 2023 | Gardner Minshew, Ind. | 13 | 3305 | 15 | 194.4 |
| 2023 | Mac Jones, N.E. | 11 | 2120 | 10 | 192.7 |
| 2023 | Joshua Dobbs, Ari.-Min. | 12 | 2464 | 13 | 189.5 |
| 2023 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | 11 | 2271 | 8 | 189.3 |
| 2023 | Desmond Ridder, Atl. | 13 | 2836 | 12 | 189.1 |
| 2022 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | 9 | 1688 | 6 | 187.6 |
| 2022 | Lamar Jackson, Bal. | 12 | 2242 | 17 | 186.8 |
| 2022 | Kenny Pickett, Pit. | 12 | 2404 | 7 | 184.9 |
| 2022 | Baker Mayfield, Car.-LAR | 10 | 2163 | 10 | 180.3 |
| 2023 | Bryce Young, Car. | 16 | 2877 | 11 | 179.8 |
| 2021 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | 13 | 2334 | 9 | 179.5 |
| 2023 | Kenny Pickett, Pit. | 12 | 2070 | 6 | 172.5 |
| 2022 | Marcus Mariota, Atl. | 13 | 2219 | 15 | 170.7 |
| 2022 | Jacoby Brissett, Cle. | 11 | 2608 | 12 | 163.0 |
| 2023 | Ryan Tannehill, Ten. | 8 | 1616 | 4 | 161.6 |
| 2021 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 10 | 1870 | 7 | 155.8 |
| 2022 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 15 | 2242 | 17 | 149.5 |
On Fields' behalf, he was better last year (197 yards per game) than his first two seasons (150-156). That's why I think he might bring a mid-round pick, from some team that thinks he can take another step up in year 4 and is willing to risk, say, a third-rounder on that potential. But the Bears banking on that development while trading away the chance to select a franchise passer? I do not believe for a second that that will happen.
Those who believe Fields (or Wilson, or Pickett I guess) can still emerge as a viable franchise quarterback can cling to a couple of players who show up once on the above list and have advanced. MVP Lamar Jackson and should-have-been Comeback Player of the Year Baker Mayfield come off very nice seasons.
But nobody else on that list will be a Week 1 starter in 2024. Mariota, Ridder, Mac Jones -- they'll be backups, somewhere, at best. Fields will be starting somewhere in 2024, but I'm not optimistic about beyond that. And Chicago will probably be starting Caleb Williams.
--Andy Richardson
20 Reader Comments:
Ben Hogevoll
Andy Richardson
James Costello
Andy Richardson
Ian Allan
Andy Richardson
Ian Allan
Paul Desimone
My own opinion of Fields is that he's talented but still raw; he needed training from the ground up, and this wasn't the spot for that. I was actually hoping the 49ers would draft him, but... Well, that's another sad story.
Ian Allan
Paul Desimone
Moishe Steigmann
Andy Richardson
What I was trying to show with this item was that Fields isn't Brissett or Jimmy G (both of whom had played so little (2 starts) before being traded that they hadn't lost any luster from where they were originally drafted). He isn't Wentz (who was an MVP favorite before getting hurt in Philly's Super Bowl year), or Foles (who had an amazing 27 TD, 2 INT season in 2013). How the Eagles were able to trade Bradford for a 1st is harder to fathom, but the desperate Vikings (who lost Bridgewater right before the season) made a move that looked foolhardy at the time and was.
Fields is a three-year starter who's a great athlete and can run like hell but hasn't averaged 200 passing yards in a season and has averaged exactly 1 TD pass while taking about 3.5 sacks per game for his career. Apart from two remarkable games this year (against Denver and Washington, join the club) he hasn't looked like a quality starting quarterback; certainly nothing close to 2013 Foles or 2017 Wentz. Maybe Chicago deals him for a 3rd round pick that can become a 2nd if the team makes the playoffs or something. I think that's their best likely outcome.
Andy Richardson
Paul Desimone
Drew Paterson
Sam Pickering
Dann Brunebjerg
On Fields Trade value: If you also consider your recent piece about only 9 QBs playing full slate last Season, rostering a decent QB2 makes good sense. Both as competition for place and as insurance. So I find his value is higher than a 3rd rd pick.
Obviously you need Cap Space for two decent QBs, but would make sense for Bears to keep Fields even if drafting a new QB. His Trade Value would probably rise during next season, when Teams feeling in contention lose their starter (Like Jets).
BUT I hope Bears trade down. Having first pick is an enormous Asset. But so is spending it. And there are no safe bets in the draft. Not even Caleb Williams.
I would much rather try to copy last years Trade miracle (labelled that way based on too many years watching Bears waste draft capital trading up).
Dont sell to the highest bidder. Sell to the right bidder. Sell to the one most likely to be a repeat of 2023-Panthers.
Zoom in on Patriots. Belichik era is gone, and new regime will want to hit the ground running. I could see them pay 3 firsts - maybe more.
So 2 firsts in the coming years (that will be early picks) in exchange for only moving down 2 spots this year.
Andy Richardson
Their deal with Carolina was great, no question. They could land an even better deal this year. All the extra picks would certainly result in better overall talent on the roster.
But Houston, which sat at #2 and selected C.J. Stroud, is the team that seems to be in best shape for the future. It's a quarterback-driven league. And there's no guarantee if you trade away that No. 1 pick you'll be in position to draft a franchise QB next year, if there even is one.
I think you only keep Fields and trade the pick if you believe he can emerge as a franchise star and that rookie is less likely to do so. Maybe there's some teams or fans that feel that way, but I think it's definitely a minority opinion.
To be clear: I'm not saying what I want the Bears to do. It doesn't matter to me. I'm saying what I think they will do (and what most if not all teams would do). Fields could well emerge as better than any of the QBs in this class, but we've got three years of NFL games with him which don't make a really strong case.
Dann Brunebjerg
I just see Fields being better than adequate, and therefore investing so much draft Capital in a new QB seems wrong.
It is not just a first pick. You're spending what you would get in return trading it.
And you play the Houston card. I will play the Panthers card back :-). Drafting is a lottery, and it does in my view not make sense to chase down your elite QB, if you don't have the supporting cast to back it up.
So upgrade your talent pool. Then target your next franchise QB. And fill the void signing a proven veteran QB in between (if Fields needs upgrading then).
I feel all Teams mess up always chasing immediate success. Long term rebuilding makes more sense, and trading 1st pick keeps you ahead of that Curve.
Also a point in selecting your trade counterparty. To me Patriots look ideal currently (and management vulnerable).
I would certainly trade 1st pick cheaper to Patriots than to anyone I think might be playoff bound next year. Not (just) based on only moving two slots down this year. Based on expectations of what picks I might get back the following years.
Andy Richardson
I agree with you a case can be made for sticking with Fields and taking the draft pick haul. I tend to believe the reports it won’t happen, but plenty of time for things to change.