Alvin Kamara turns 29 this summer and has a big contract, so it's fair to wonder if he'll be on the Saints roster in 2024. But it's currently a $17 million hit against the cap even if the team were to release him, and local beat writer Nick Underhill apparently believes he'll return. The question is whether his fantasy value will increase or decrease in the new offense.

The Saints have replaced coordinator Pete Carmichael -- with New Orleans for Kamara's entire career -- with Klint Kubiak, who last helmed an offense in 2021, with the Vikings. The last two years he's been an offensive assistant with the Broncos and 49ers, which is kind of a mixed bag. Denver's offense in 2022 was a disaster. San Francisco's was great, but it's fair to wonder how responsible for it Kubiak was (it's Kyle Shanahan's offense, and Kubiak was one of three assistants, listed as Passing Game Coordinator).

San Francisco had arguably the game's best pass-catching running back in Christian McCaffrey, while Kubiak's 2021 Vikings completed 66 passes to Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison, so reasonable to think Kamara's involvement as a pass catcher will remain strong. But it's also fair to wonder how much of what Carmichael was doing with Kamara will continue into 2024.

Kamara last season averaged just 6.2 yards per catch, which was worst among all running backs to see at least 75 targets a year ago. He also averaged just 5.4 yards per target. That was not only worst among running backs with that kind of volume a year ago, it was one of the dozen worst numbers from the last decade. (McCaffrey last year was tops in this regard of the 75-target backs, up at 6.8 in San Francisco's offense, but he's been one of the best for most of his career.)

The hope, then, is that the passes thrown in Kamara's direction will be a little more productive, rather than short balls that don't go anywhere. Might mean fewer catches for him, bringing his value down in PPR leagues, but (theoretically) more big plays. Although whether that will actually happen in New Orleans' Derek Carr-led offense remains to be seen.

Table shows running backs with 75 targets the last 10 years, sorted by yards per target. Kamara shows up multiple times, including with one of the best numbers -- but that was back in his rookie season of 2017, playing as the sidekick to main runner Mark Ingram. Seven years later, he's probably not that guy anymore.

2019Austin Ekeler, LAC5571089299310.8119.19
2017Todd Gurley, LAR1305876478812.3199.06
2017Alvin Kamara, N.O.7281008182610.2148.26
2014LeVeon Bell, Pitt.13611058385410.3118.13
2018Tarik Cohen, Chi.444917172510.287.97
2018Jalen Richard, Oak.25981686078.917.49
2017Duke Johnson, Cle.34893746939.477.45
2016David Johnson, Ari.12391208087911.0207.33
2018Todd Gurley, LAR125181595809.8217.16
2015Danny Woodhead, S.D.336106807559.497.12
2019Christian McCaffrey, Car.138714211610058.7197.08
2020Alvin Kamara, N.O.932107837569.1217.07
2015Theo Riddick, Det.13399806978.737.04
2018Christian McCaffrey, Car.10981241078678.1136.99
2021Austin Ekeler, LAC91194706479.2206.88
2022Christian McCaffrey, 2TM1139108857418.7136.86
2023Christian McCaffrey, S.F.145983675648.4216.80
2019James White, N.E.26395726459.066.79
2018Alvin Kamara, N.O.883105817098.8186.75
2016LeVeon Bell, Pitt.126894756168.296.55
2016James White, N.E.16686605519.256.41
2022Alvin Kamara, N.O.89777574908.646.36
2020Nyheim Hines, Ind.38076634827.776.34
2022Leonard Fournette, T.B.66883735237.266.30
2018T.J. Yeldon, Jac.41478554878.956.24
2023Breece Hall, NYJ99495765917.896.22
2014Matt Forte, Chi.10381301028087.9106.22
2017LeVeon Bell, Pitt.1291106856557.7116.18
2015Shane Vereen, NYG26081594958.446.11
2018James White, N.E.425123877518.6126.11
2018Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.143495775677.495.97
2015Devonta Freeman, Atl.105697735787.9145.96
2018Saquon Barkley, NYG1307121917217.9155.96
2019LeVeon Bell, NYJ78978664617.045.91
2022Joe Mixon, Cin.81475604417.495.88
2018David Johnson, Ari.94076504468.9105.87
2017LeSean McCoy, Buff.113877594487.685.82
2014Shane Vereen, N.E.39177524478.655.81
2021D'Andre Swift, Det.61778624527.375.79
2017Christian McCaffrey, Car.435113806518.175.76
2017Melvin Gordon, LAC110583584768.2125.73
2022Austin Ekeler, LAC9151271077226.7185.69
2023Bijan Robinson, Atl.97686584878.485.66
2014Fred Jackson, Buff.52590665017.635.57
2019Alvin Kamara, N.O.79797815336.665.49
2023Alvin Kamara, N.O.69486754666.265.42
2021Leonard Fournette, T.B.81284694546.6105.40
2020J.D. McKissic, Was.365110805897.435.35
2018Nyheim Hines, Ind.31481634256.845.25
2019Leonard Fournette, Jac.1152100765226.935.22
2021Najee Harris, Pitt.120094744676.3104.97
2022Rhamondre Stevenson, N.E.104088694216.164.78
2015Darren Sproles, Phil.31783553887.164.67
2022Saquon Barkley, NYG131276573385.9104.45
2019Tarik Cohen, Chi.213104794565.834.38
2017Carlos Hyde, S.F.93888593505.983.98

In general, I'm thinking 29-year-old Kamara will be catching fewer passes, but maybe they'll do a better job of getting him in space so those receptions can be a little more productive. The team will also probably work in Kendre Miller more. And that's assuming they don't find some financially feasible way to get Kamara off the roster.

--Andy Richardson