Factoid

March 22, 2024

C.J. Stroud

Will Stroud get even better in his second season?

I like C.J. Stroud. He looks like he’s going to be one of the good quarterbacks for a lot of years. But at the same time, I’m aware that there are more misses than hits in regards to second-year quarterbacks taking a big step forward.

The defenses, they get paid too. And no doubt they’re dissecting the tape, trying to figure out what works (and doesn’t) against Houston’s offense. I like that the Texans have offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik coming back.

In the last 20 years, 13 other rookie quarterbacks have started at least half the season and averaged top-15 numbers. (That is, for this one, I’m looking not at cumulative numbers but at what the players did when they were starting – reduces the apples-to-oranges dynamics of comparing guys playing various numbers of games).

Below see the list of rookie quarterbacks who had some success in their first year. All averaged top-15 numbers (relative to other quarterbacks who started at least half the time).

ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS AVERAGING VIABLE NUMBERS
Year	Player	St	Pass	TDP	Run	TDR	Pts	Rk
2006	Matt Leinart, Ari.	11	227	1.00	5	.18	16.9	14
2006	Vince Young, Ten.	13	159	.85	41	.54	18.8	9
2009	Matthew Stafford, Det.	10	227	1.30	11	.20	19.0	14
2011	Cam Newton, Car.	16	253	1.31	44	.88	27.8	4
2012	Andrew Luck, Ind.	16	273	1.44	16	.31	22.9	10
2012	Robert Griffin, Was.	15	213	1.33	54	.47	24.2	5
2012	Russell Wilson, Sea.	16	195	1.63	31	.25	20.8	12
2018	Baker Mayfield, Cle.	13	271	2.08	10	.00	23.0	11
2018	Josh Allen, Buff.	11	182	.91	55	.73	22.8	13
2019	Daniel Jones, NYG	12	251	2.00	23	.17	24.2	8
2019	Kyler Murray, Ari.	16	233	1.25	34	.25	21.9	13
2020	Joe Burrow, Cin.	10	269	1.30	14	.30	21.9	15
2020	Justin Herbert, LAC	15	289	2.07	16	.33	26.5	7
2023	C.J. Stroud, Hou.	15	274	1.53	11	.20	22.3	7

You might assume most of those guys would be a few spots better, with the advantages of having been around for a year – knowing the offense and whatnot. But that hasn’t tended to be the case.

Instead, only four of the 13 (less than a third, by my math) came back and ranked even higher in their second year. I’ve got those guys tagged with black dots. And there’s one who stayed in the same spot, with Cam Newton ranked 4th in both of his first two seasons. If we instead look not at ranking but at statistical output (per game), we still get four of the 13 (Andrew Luck would be tossed back but three-start Matthew Stafford would be added).

On the plus side for Stroud, the second-season success stories have tended to come recently. Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes didn’t start eight games as rookies but won MVPs in their second seasons. Carson Wentz almost won an MVP in his second year. And Kyler Murray and Joe Burrow were blowup guys in Year 2. Justin Herbert’s stats weren’t dramatically better, but he was awful good in his first year and he maintained at that level.

GOOD ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS (numbers in 2nd year)
Year	Player	St	Pass	TDP	Run	TDR	Pts	Rk
2007	Matt Leinart, Ariz.	5	129	.40	8	.00	8.9	--
2007	Vince Young, Ten.	15	170	.60	26	.20	14.7	22
2010	Matthew Stafford, Det.	3	178	2.00	4	.33	20.0	--
2012	Cam Newton, Car.	16	242	1.19	46	.50	24.5	4
2013	• Andrew Luck, Ind.	16	239	1.44	24	.25	22.1	9
2013	Robert Griffin, Was.	13	246	1.23	38	.00	21.3	11
2013	Russell Wilson, Sea.	16	210	1.63	34	.06	20.7	14
2019	Baker Mayfield, Cle.	16	239	1.38	9	.19	19.6	25
2019	Josh Allen, Buff.	16	193	1.25	32	.56	21.6	14
2020	• Kyler Murray, Ariz.	16	248	1.63	51	.69	28.2	3
2020	Daniel Jones, NYG	14	210	.79	30	.07	17.2	30
2021	• Joe Burrow, Cin.	16	288	2.13	7	.13	24.4	8
2021	• Justin Herbert, LAC	17	295	2.24	18	.18	26.6	2
2024	C.J. Stroud, Hou.	?	?	?	?	?	?	?

At this point, I’m not sure where Stroud will wind up on my board. It’s early. He’ll definitely be in the top 10. I’m not sure if he’ll be in the top 5.

—Ian Allan

C.J. Stroud

Older

Newer

My dad and I have subscribed since I was 10 years old and I am 38 now. We canʼt go a season without it.

Trevor T. Sparks, Nev.

You guys are great - if you look at my account, I believe I have been a subscriber for around 20 years! Unfortunately, a few years ago a couple of other owners found the same publication (they didnʼt get it from me; I always disguised the sheets while at the draft!)

Michael B. St. Charles, Mo.

I have purchased your magazine since my first fantasy football season ever 12 season ago and love the insight you offer. Thank you for the great service, I look forward to many many more years of enjoying your subscription!

Paul L. Mequon, Wisc.

The magazine is exactly the same as last year, which is perfect. Boys, we have a chance to repeat in the 33rd year of the NWFFL. I am counting on you to help pull it off. FI has been a league staple for decades, one of my guys has every edition. A few years ago, we devised a clever way to use one of your lists to draft a team for an absent owner, the sob won it all. We love you guys. Peace!

Glenn S. Olympia, Wash.

Hi, received my copy over the weekend and I think it's the best work you guys have done (I've been reading your publication since 1988). The writing is terrific and full of good humor, along with more substance than anybody else has.

Keep up the great work!

John L. Madison, Wis.

I'm in 3 leagues. All have different formats. I bought one magazine, the same magazine for 30 years. I keep the Fantasy Football Index handy and refer back to your preseason reports throughout the season to help me evaluate roster moves in every format. This week I'm in two championship games and a semifinal. Did I tell you I'm in three leagues? Three playoff teams! Best fantasy season ever. Thank you.

Henry G. Bartlett, Ill.

Thanks for another great season of Fantasy Index, you avoid group-think and form your own opinions, and always have. I've been using your products since 1992, and you've always been a cut above the rest.

Rob D. Wellington, Fla.

Thank you for all you do and what your team does. Been playing since mid 90s and your mag has been there every year. The mailer I get with the questions on the front is what I consider the beginning of the fantasy football season. Get the updates and listen to the podcast. I write a weekly column for the newspaper I work at and always appreciate the work you put in to produce as much as you do. Just a fan saying thanks and will keep up with you and the site through the season.

Jason C. Tulsa, Okla.

A little feedback from a long time customer.

Our fantasy pool is entering its 25^th year and I have used multiple books and on-line tools over the years.

I have locked on to Fantasy Index as my go to for the last 5 years and have won the pool 3 of those years and finished no lower than 4^th.

Interesting to see how much more accurate you were at the end of the year compared to other books my competitors used.

Having it in a format that allows me to work the forecasts to match our scoring system and then receive updates as the season approaches is invaluable. Whoever your sources are for the forecasts are the best. Hang on to them. Thanks for the help!!

Peter M. London, Ontario, Canada

I did receive the updated draft ranking from you guys in plenty of time for my draft that night. My draft report gave me an A+ and predicted me to go 14-0 and win my league! I just want to say thank you for the excellent customer service that your company provided me. When I first started playing fantasy football more than 15 years ago, I used to buy as many fantasy football magazines as I could find. It wasnʼt long before I only purchased Fantasy Football Index each year. It is by far the most comprehensive, well written fantasy football magazine on the market. Also, I almost always rank in the top three in my fantasy football leagues, and won my league last year. Thank you to you and all of your great team. You have a customer for life!

Trey C. Fort Worth, Texas

Thank you for all the updates etc. In the last 14 or 15 years, we have placed in the top three 9 times winning it all 4 times. I have been a customer of yours for many years. Our success is partially due to luck, but I think your magazine with all of the good stuff has been a real contributing factor. Keep up the good work. Will be a customer until the time I can't read anymore.

Richard M. Imperial, Neb.

I just wanted to send everyone at Fantasy Football Index an apology. Since 2003 (Ricky Williams cover), I've protected my source of information and have gone out of my way to hide Fantasy Football Index from my leagues prying eyes. I've won championships in leagues and money playing Daily Fantasy and your Training Camp updates are the highlight of my summer and a recurring order for me every single season. I just wanted to Thank You and everyone there (customer service, the writers, janitors, secretaries and assistants) for your hard work and dedication.

You are appreciated and valued part of my Fantasy Football Operations department even if i never speak your name in fear that others in my league will discover the wondrous bounty of knowledge contained in your pages…

From the bottom of a champion's heart,

Dave M. Elma, N.Y.

I wanted to send a quick note and thank you for your great magazine! The information you provide, has allowed me to win my league 3 years in a row!

The payoff in the league is not bad, six hundred dollars to be exact, but it is those all important bragging rights that really make it fun!

I epically enjoyed this last issue because you included all the covers for the past 30 years, I did not buy 87, and 88, but all the rest I have purchased.

All I have to do is read and then plug and play, thanks again for doing all the work so I don't have to, except for cash the check of course! Lol.

I will be continue to purchase your magazine, and recommend it to others, although I don't like to give away my secret!

I typically don't write emails to magazines, but after 3 wins in a row, and others which I did not list, I felt like you would like to know.

Thanks again to you and your staff,

Darrell W. Holt, Mich.

I wanted to let you know I finished my season going 16-0 winning my league, breaking every record in our 19 year history along the way. A special thank you to FI for the insightful knowledge as it provided me much help along the way.

Ryan M. Lynnwood, Wash.

You guys do a great job. I got laughed at by a few people at the draft but they're not laughing now. I'm leading the league in record (8-1) and PF thus far.

John W. Aylett, Va.

And a side note… we've got a re-draft 16-team, 20 players drafted league (drafting water boys by the 17^th round) that I've won 2 years in a row. Nobody's ever done that in 21 years… using your cheat sheet. it's an old school league that used to draft out of piles of magazines.

Thanks again,

Todd S. Grand Junction, Colo.

This is my ninth year competing with my two very savey adult children and their 11 regulars to make it a 14 team draft with a $200 bid limit. Your SuperFanatic package has put me into the 6 team play- offs 4 out of the 8 years and there is no way I could compete with these guys without my cheat sheets! They still have no idea how I can be so lucky every year :-) Cheaters do prosper!!!!

Robert A.

I wanted to thank you for such an amazing product and your customer service. I ordered the wrong date for my update and called to correct the mistake. Your customer service person was very kind, helpful and took care of the issue immediately.

I have used your product for the past 18 years or so… Every now and then I will be tempted and look at what other magazines have to offer, quickly realizing no one comes close.

In addition to the magazine, I started buying the weekly updates years ago when my dad taught me a lesson. The draft came and dad was sitting in the 12 hole for his pick. He told me he felt very comfortable about who he was going to select but would not tell me who his prized gem was to be. I was doubtful. The pick? Priest Holmes (his first dynamite year). I remember telling my dad, "that is a decent pick but they plan to pull him at the goal line." Ever the teacher, dad explained he had purchased the Fantasy Football Index update and read Holmes would get the goal line carries. "Update?", I asked. That was 2002 and Holmes had 21 rushing TDs and Dad won the title! Lesson learned.

By the way, I have made the title game for the last 5 years in a row. Thanks for the detailed, hard work and an great product!

David R. Queen Creek, Ariz.

Fantasy Index

Customer Service

Factoid

C.J. Stroud

Today's Trivia

Mailbag

Member updates

Follow

Why Choose Fantasy Index?

Quick hits

Your Stuff

In-Depth

Resources

All Products

Help & Support

Fantasy Index

Customer Service

Customer Service