I like C.J. Stroud. He looks like he’s going to be one of the good quarterbacks for a lot of years. But at the same time, I’m aware that there are more misses than hits in regards to second-year quarterbacks taking a big step forward.

The defenses, they get paid too. And no doubt they’re dissecting the tape, trying to figure out what works (and doesn’t) against Houston’s offense. I like that the Texans have offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik coming back.

In the last 20 years, 13 other rookie quarterbacks have started at least half the season and averaged top-15 numbers. (That is, for this one, I’m looking not at cumulative numbers but at what the players did when they were starting – reduces the apples-to-oranges dynamics of comparing guys playing various numbers of games).

Below see the list of rookie quarterbacks who had some success in their first year. All averaged top-15 numbers (relative to other quarterbacks who started at least half the time).

ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS AVERAGING VIABLE NUMBERS
YearPlayerStPassTDPRunTDRPtsRk
2006Matt Leinart, Ari.112271.005.1816.914
2006Vince Young, Ten.13159.8541.5418.89
2009Matthew Stafford, Det.102271.3011.2019.014
2011Cam Newton, Car.162531.3144.8827.84
2012Andrew Luck, Ind.162731.4416.3122.910
2012Robert Griffin, Was.152131.3354.4724.25
2012Russell Wilson, Sea.161951.6331.2520.812
2018Baker Mayfield, Cle.132712.0810.0023.011
2018Josh Allen, Buff.11182.9155.7322.813
2019Daniel Jones, NYG122512.0023.1724.28
2019Kyler Murray, Ari.162331.2534.2521.913
2020Joe Burrow, Cin.102691.3014.3021.915
2020Justin Herbert, LAC152892.0716.3326.57
2023C.J. Stroud, Hou.152741.5311.2022.37

You might assume most of those guys would be a few spots better, with the advantages of having been around for a year – knowing the offense and whatnot. But that hasn’t tended to be the case.

Instead, only four of the 13 (less than a third, by my math) came back and ranked even higher in their second year. I’ve got those guys tagged with black dots. And there’s one who stayed in the same spot, with Cam Newton ranked 4th in both of his first two seasons. If we instead look not at ranking but at statistical output (per game), we still get four of the 13 (Andrew Luck would be tossed back but three-start Matthew Stafford would be added).

On the plus side for Stroud, the second-season success stories have tended to come recently. Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes didn’t start eight games as rookies but won MVPs in their second seasons. Carson Wentz almost won an MVP in his second year. And Kyler Murray and Joe Burrow were blowup guys in Year 2. Justin Herbert’s stats weren’t dramatically better, but he was awful good in his first year and he maintained at that level.

GOOD ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS (numbers in 2nd year)
YearPlayerStPassTDPRunTDRPtsRk
2007Matt Leinart, Ariz.5129.408.008.9--
2007Vince Young, Ten.15170.6026.2014.722
2010Matthew Stafford, Det.31782.004.3320.0--
2012Cam Newton, Car.162421.1946.5024.54
2013• Andrew Luck, Ind.162391.4424.2522.19
2013Robert Griffin, Was.132461.2338.0021.311
2013Russell Wilson, Sea.162101.6334.0620.714
2019Baker Mayfield, Cle.162391.389.1919.625
2019Josh Allen, Buff.161931.2532.5621.614
2020• Kyler Murray, Ariz.162481.6351.6928.23
2020Daniel Jones, NYG14210.7930.0717.230
2021• Joe Burrow, Cin.162882.137.1324.48
2021• Justin Herbert, LAC172952.2418.1826.62
2024C.J. Stroud, Hou.???????

At this point, I’m not sure where Stroud will wind up on my board. It’s early. He’ll definitely be in the top 10. I’m not sure if he’ll be in the top 5.

—Ian Allan