It’s early. I haven’t stacked a board yet (at this point in the process, I’m just looking at players and teams). But I’m definitely interested in Anthony Richardson.

We didn’t see much of Richardson last year. He started only four games, and he left two of them before halftime. But I remember him being a lot better than I was expecting. He’ll be one of the top few runners at the position, and with the ability to also deliver through the air.

For running purposes, I think we’re looking at another Josh Allen or Cam Newton. Richardson will call his own number around the end zone; he ran for 4 TDs in his limited playing time last year. He ran for 40 and 56 yards in his two full games.

Richardson the passer wasn’t as impressive. He had some struggles against the Rams, completing only 11 of 25 for 200 yards (albeit with 2 TDs). His debut against Jacksonville was more noteworthy (24 of 37 for 223 yards and a touchdown).

If we take those rushing and passing stats together and adjust them for playing time, Richardson starts to look like the possible breakout quarterback for 2024. He played in about 11 quarters last year (two full games, a game where he got hurt early in the second quarter and a game where he got hurt just before halftime). Adjusting those 11 quarters of work in what you would expect to see in a four-quarter game, we get below-average passing numbers (210 yards and 1.09 TDs) but league-leading rushing numbers (49 yards, 1.45 TD).

Blend those numbers together and Richardson (had he played at that same level for an entire season) would have been the most productive quarterback in the league last year. (For fantasy purposes, anyway.)

There’s always danger, of course, in reading too much in small sample sizes. He’s got to stay healthy, and maybe they run him less to help in that regard. But Richardson to me looks like he’s for real. I think he’ll be better as a passer this season, and I think he’ll be one of the top few runners at his position. Very good chance, I’m thinking, that he winds up being a top-5 quarterback.

Below chart shows how Richardson compares to all quarterbacks who started at least half of last season. We’ve got the actual per-start numbers for those other 29 games. For Richardson, you’ve got his 11 quarters of work adjusted into an expected per-game average.

I will be interested to see where Richardson shows up on other people’s boards. He’s going to be well up on mine.

Anthony Richardson, Ind.2101.09491.4528.5
Josh Allen, Buff.2531.7131.8828.2
Jalen Hurts, Phil.2271.3536.8825.6
Lamar Jackson, Balt.2301.5051.3124.6
Dak Prescott, Dall.2662.1214.1224.1
Jordan Love, G.B.2451.8815.2422.9
Brock Purdy, S.F.2681.949.1322.8
C.J. Stroud, Hou.2741.5311.2022.3
Patrick Mahomes, K.C.2611.6924.0022.3
Justin Fields, Chi.1971.2351.3121.7
Jared Goff, Det.2691.761.1221.6
Trevor Lawrence, Jac.2511.3121.2521.5
Justin Herbert, LAC2411.5418.2321.5
Russell Wilson, Den.2051.7323.2020.9
Tua Tagovailoa, Mia.2721.714.0020.9
Matthew Stafford, LAR2641.604.0020.3
Sam Howell, Was.2321.2415.2920.1
Baker Mayfield, T.B.2381.6510.0620.0
Geno Smith, Sea.2421.3310.0719.1
Joshua Dobbs, Az.-Mn.192.9230.4219.1
Joe Burrow, Cin.2311.509.0018.4
Gardner Minshew, Ind.2291.087.2318.2
Desmond Ridder, Atl.214.9214.3117.9
Derek Carr, N.O.2281.472.0017.8
Aidan O'Connell, L.V.2141.101.1015.8
Will Levis, Ten.201.896.1115.1
Zach Wilson, NYJ194.6419.0014.5
Mac Jones, N.E.193.919.0014.1
Bryce Young, Car.180.6916.0013.6
Kenny Pickett, Pitt.173.505.0811.6

—Ian Allan