Factoid

April 09, 2024

Pea-shooter receivers

Can Panthers salvage struggling young WRs?

Among wide receivers with at least 30 targets last year, only four averaged under 5 yards per target. The Panthers had half of them – Jonathan Mingo and Terrace Marshall. Can we now simply dismiss these guys from future consideration?

These aren’t merely camp bodies. Both were selected in the second round. Mingo was a top-40 pick a year ago. Such players tend to get more patience than others. (Particularly Mingo, who’s entering his second season, versus Marshall who’s coming back for the fourth and final year of his rookie contract.)

While the production has been pretty putrid, I ran some historical numbers, and there have been a few receivers who’ve been able to rise from the ashes after similar seasons.

Below see the list of 101 wide receivers in the 32-team era who’ve averaged fewer than 5 yards per target (with at least 30 targets). Seven of these receivers at some point later in their career had a season with top-30 numbers (using PPR scoring). Another six had a top-40 season. (I’ve got the top-30 guys tagged with double dots and the top 40 guys with single dots.)

Now, 13 out of 97 isn’t a great hit rate. It indicates that when you have a bunch of these guys, about one out of every 7-8 of them will have a relevant season later in their career. But it does happen from time to time.

For the receivers from 2023, Mingo seems like a possibility, having played only one season (and for a 2-15 team). And Kadarius Toney has already shown some ability to make some plays. (I didn’t like the way Kansas City used him last year, constantly throwing him quick passes around the line of scrimmage; Toney in a couple of games as a rookie looked like another Odell Beckham.)

Van Jefferson also averaged under 5 yards per target last year while playing for both the Rams and Falcons. I am comfortable saying it’s just never going to happen for him, but the Steelers have signed Jefferson for the upcoming season. (Pittsburgh took a swing on a similar struggling receiver last year, Allen Robinson, with little to show for it.)

In the chart below, the final two columns merit some clarification. The first (the “rank”) shows where the player ranked among receivers in that season using PPR scoring. The final column shows the highest the player ranked among wide receivers in any of the remaining seasons of his career.

RECEIVERS AVERAGING UNDER 5 YARDS PER TARGET
Year	Player	Tgt	Rec	Yds	YPT	TD	PPR	Rk	Best
2017	Breshad Perriman, Balt.	35	10	77	2.2	0	17.7	145	51
2003	• Reche Caldwell, S.D.	34	8	80	2.4	0	19.9	126	34
2015	Rashad Greene, Jac.	35	19	93	2.7	2	46.3	113	113
2012	Mike Thomas, 2TM	40	18	108	2.7	1	40.5	119	119
2013	•• Kenny Britt, Ten.	35	11	96	2.7	0	20.6	137	28
2017	Kamar Aiken, Ind.	44	15	133	3.0	0	28.3	131	131
2009	•• Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak.	40	9	124	3.1	1	29.3	118	28
2011	• Eddie Royal, Den.	50	19	155	3.1	1	51.3	114	31
2015	Brian Quick, St.L.	32	10	102	3.2	0	20.2	153	70
2010	Johnnie Lee Higgins, Oak.	30	10	103	3.4	0	20.3	141	141
2002	Derrick Alexander, Min.	39	14	134	3.4	1	33.4	120	120
2012	Kevin Elliott, Jac.	31	10	108	3.5	0	20.8	139	139
2018	John Ross, Cin.	58	21	210	3.6	7	84.9	86	74
2009	Josh Cribbs, Cle.	37	20	135	3.6	1	108.5	68	55
2018	Chad Williams, Ari.	46	17	171	3.7	1	41.0	127	127
2015	Marlon Brown, Balt.	30	14	112	3.7	0	25.2	144	144
2008	Ronald Curry, Oak.	48	19	181	3.8	2	49.2	99	99
2008	Donte Stallworth, Cle.	45	17	170	3.8	1	39.6	106	95
2012	Early Doucet, Ari.	53	28	207	3.9	0	49.6	111	111
2015	Keith Mumphery, Hou.	32	14	129	4.0	0	26.9	141	141
2003	Cortez Hankton, Jac.	41	17	166	4.0	0	33.6	111	111
2005	David Patten, Was.	53	22	217	4.1	0	43.7	104	43
2017	Eli Rogers, Pitt.	36	18	149	4.1	1	38.9	123	123
2003	Az-Zahir Hakim, Det.	108	49	449	4.2	4	126.1	49	49
2009	Deon Butler, Sea.	42	15	175	4.2	0	32.5	116	74
2021	Ray-Ray McCloud, Pitt.	66	39	277	4.2	0	68.2	107	107
2013	Davone Bess, Cle.	86	42	362	4.2	2	92.2	79	79
2023	Terrace Marshall, Car.	33	19	139	4.2	0	32.9	137	?
2019	Trey Quinn, Was.	47	26	198	4.2	1	53.8	106	106
2004	Josh Reed, Buff.	36	16	153	4.3	0	31.2	119	52
2005	Randy Hymes, Balt.	31	11	132	4.3	2	36.2	113	113
2017	•• Zay Jones, Buff.	74	27	316	4.3	2	70.6	87	26
2002	Germane Crowell, Det.	47	22	201	4.3	1	48.1	106	106
2010	Bryant Johnson, Det.	49	18	210	4.3	0	41.0	118	118
2005	Kevin Johnson, Det.	31	17	133	4.3	0	30.3	121	121
2002	Donald Hayes, N.E.	31	12	133	4.3	2	37.3	115	115
2003	David Terrell, Chi.	84	43	361	4.3	1	85.5	81	55
2008	Marty Booker, Chi.	49	14	211	4.3	2	47.4	101	101
2009	Mike Furrey, Cle.	39	23	170	4.4	0	40.0	111	111
2009	• Eddie Royal, Den.	79	37	345	4.4	0	83.6	81	31
2014	Marquess Wilson, Chi.	32	17	140	4.4	1	37.0	117	87
2008	Ashley Lelie, Oak.	45	11	197	4.4	2	42.7	103	103
2006	•• Chris Chambers, Mia.	154	59	677	4.4	4	160.2	35	29
2015	Donteea Dye, T.B.	30	11	132	4.4	1	30.2	134	134
2002	Dedric Ward, Mia.	39	19	172	4.4	0	36.2	118	118
2008	Syndric Steptoe, Cle.	41	19	182	4.4	0	37.2	113	113
2023	Kadarius Toney, K.C.	38	27	169	4.4	1	53.0	108	?
2019	KeeSean Johnson, Ari.	42	21	187	4.5	1	48.0	112	112
2020	Jeff Smith, NYJ	37	17	167	4.5	0	33.7	137	137
2022	Braxton Berrios, NYJ	32	18	145	4.5	0	57.7	109	105
2011	Mike Sims-Walker, 2TM	33	12	150	4.5	0	27.0	128	128
2005	Tyrone Calico, Ten.	42	22	191	4.5	0	41.1	107	107
2008	•• Sidney Rice, Min.	31	15	141	4.5	4	53.1	94	11
2010	Joey Galloway, Was.	38	12	173	4.6	0	29.3	125	125
2011	Mike Thomas, Jac.	91	44	415	4.6	1	92.6	80	80
2002	Chris Doering, Was.	42	18	192	4.6	2	51.2	101	100
2012	Juron Criner, Oak.	33	16	151	4.6	1	39.1	122	122
2010	•• Laurent Robinson, St.L.	75	34	344	4.6	2	79.0	85	20
2021	Terrace Marshall, Car.	30	17	138	4.6	0	32.8	139	88
2003	Bryan Gilmore, Ari.	45	17	208	4.6	2	49.8	98	98
2022	Scott Miller, T.B.	40	23	185	4.6	0	42.3	124	124
2004	Tai Streets, Det.	56	28	260	4.6	1	62.0	94	94
2010	• Ted Ginn, S.F.	35	12	163	4.7	1	41.4	117	34
2011	Andre Caldwell, Cin.	68	37	317	4.7	3	86.7	82	82
2017	Brandon Marshall, NYG	33	18	154	4.7	0	33.4	125	125
2010	Bernard Berrian, Min.	54	28	252	4.7	0	52.4	108	108
2007	Joe Horn, Atl.	52	27	243	4.7	1	57.3	96	96
2003	Charles Rogers, Det.	52	22	243	4.7	3	66.0	88	88
2009	Lance Long, 2TM	38	20	178	4.7	0	37.7	113	113
2002	• Marcus Robinson, Chi.	52	21	244	4.7	3	63.4	92	37
2008	Brian Finneran, Atl.	36	21	169	4.7	1	43.9	102	102
2013	Greg Little, Cle.	99	41	465	4.7	2	99.5	73	73
2021	Robby Anderson, Car.	110	53	519	4.7	5	138.5	49	49
2006	Alvis Whitted, Oak.	63	27	299	4.7	0	57.3	98	98
2015	Eddie Royal, Chi.	50	37	238	4.8	1	66.7	93	86
2014	Danny Amendola, N.E.	42	27	200	4.8	1	53.0	104	44
2019	Javon Wims, Chi.	39	18	186	4.8	1	42.6	119	119
2007	Darrell Jackson, S.F.	104	46	497	4.8	3	113.7	64	64
2008	Chris Henry, Cin.	46	19	220	4.8	2	53.0	95	95
2009	Michael Clayton, T.B.	48	16	230	4.8	1	47.0	104	104
2009	Bryant Johnson, Det.	87	35	417	4.8	3	94.7	77	77
2019	•• Zay Jones, 2TM	45	27	216	4.8	0	48.9	110	26
2016	Tavon Austin, LAR	106	58	509	4.8	3	148.8	52	52
2007	Keary Colbert, Car.	69	32	332	4.8	0	65.2	91	91
2009	Chansi Stuckey, 2TM	66	30	318	4.8	2	74.4	92	83
2013	Darrius Heyward-Bey, Ind.	64	29	309	4.8	1	70.5	97	95
2002	• Reche Caldwell, S.D.	43	22	208	4.8	3	64.7	91	34
2006	Bryan Gilmore, S.F.	31	8	150	4.8	1	38.4	107	107
2002	Willie Jackson, 2TM	53	25	257	4.8	1	56.7	99	99
2007	Brad Smith, NYJ	67	32	325	4.9	2	81.0	79	79
2011	Derrick Mason, 2TM	35	19	170	4.9	0	36.0	121	121
2023	Van Jefferson, 2TM	43	20	209	4.9	0	41.3	122	?
2022	Brandon Powell, LAR	32	24	156	4.9	0	47.6	120	91
2002	Kevin Lockett, 2TM	42	16	205	4.9	4	65.2	90	90
2018	Jermaine Kearse, NYJ	76	37	371	4.9	1	80.1	89	89
2013	Darius Johnson, Atl.	43	22	210	4.9	1	49.0	112	112
2011	Jonathan Baldwin, K.C.	52	21	254	4.9	1	52.4	108	101
2023	Jonathan Mingo, Car.	85	43	418	4.9	0	84.8	81	?
2010	Early Doucet, Ari.	59	26	291	4.9	1	61.6	96	43
2022	Marquez Callaway, N.O.	32	16	158	4.9	1	37.8	127	127
2004	Greg Lewis, Phil.	37	17	183	4.9	0	36.9	112	56

—Ian Allan

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