As anticipated, the Chargers have signed running back J.K. Dobbins. With Gus Edwards also under contract, they've got both Ravens main runners from the last few years, the offensive coordinator (Greg Roman) from most of those teams, and I notice the head coaches (John and Jim Harbaugh) even have the same last name. Spooky.
So it's Ravens West, with a lot of the same pieces in place, and a coaching staff bound and determined to run the ball (since they dumped their best wide receivers from the last few years, they might have little choice). Reasonable to downgrade Justin Herbert, as it's been since they hired Harbaugh, and maybe disregard the mock drafts that think Los Angeles will be selecting one of the draft's top wide receivers at No. 5 overall. Just doesn't seem to be their modus operandi.
The question is how great will the running backs be? Should definitely be a committee, holding down the value of both. But does it kill it? Maybe not.
Over the past four years, there were 20 games in Baltimore when both Edwards and Dobbins were healthy and available. Most of those games (15) were in Dobbins' rookie season of 2020, but also five in 2022 and 2023. (Both missed all of the 2021 season.)
Based on the history (and again, this was with Roman running the offense for all but one of those games), Dobbins is the guy to consider in drafts. Not only was he a lot better than Edwards, but the committee didn't keep him from putting up decent numbers in a majority of his healthy games.
Table shows all games that both players were healthy the last four years. Games where either scored double-digit points in PPR leagues are in bold. Edwards reached that total just five times in 20 games, and had 15 points just once.
Dobbins scored double-digits points in more than half (11) of those games, with four games over 15 points and five more with over 13. If you're going to gamble on one of these two backs, never mind that he was signed later -- Dobbins is the guy with a better chance of being a factor in fantasy leagues.
| DOBBINS AND EDWARDS TOGETHER, 2020-2023 | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Opp | Player | Run | Rec | TD | Pts | Player | Run | Rec | TD | Pts |
| 2020 | at Cin. | Edwards | 60 | 10 | 0 | 8.0 | Dobbins | 160 | 0 | 2 | 28.0 |
| 2020 | Ten. | Edwards | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | Dobbins | 70 | 15 | 1 | 16.5 |
| 2020 | Jac. | Edwards | 42 | 36 | 0 | 9.8 | Dobbins | 64 | 17 | 1 | 15.1 |
| 2020 | Cle. | Edwards | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | Dobbins | 22 | 0 | 2 | 14.2 |
| 2020 | NYG | Edwards | 85 | 37 | 0 | 14.2 | Dobbins | 77 | 0 | 1 | 13.7 |
| 2020 | Pit. | Edwards | 87 | 0 | 1 | 14.7 | Dobbins | 113 | 8 | 0 | 13.1 |
| 2020 | Dal. | Edwards | 101 | 0 | 0 | 10.1 | Dobbins | 71 | 0 | 1 | 13.1 |
| 2020 | at Cle. | Edwards | 49 | 4 | 2 | 18.3 | Dobbins | 53 | 0 | 1 | 11.3 |
| 2020 | Cin. | Edwards | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | Dobbins | 34 | 21 | 0 | 8.5 |
| 2020 | K.C. | Edwards | 39 | 0 | 0 | 3.9 | Dobbins | 6 | 38 | 0 | 8.4 |
| 2020 | at Hou. | Edwards | 73 | 0 | 0 | 7.3 | Dobbins | 48 | 13 | 0 | 7.1 |
| 2020 | at Ind. | Edwards | 23 | 11 | 1 | 11.4 | Dobbins | 30 | 5 | 0 | 5.5 |
| 2020 | at Phi. | Edwards | 26 | 0 | 1 | 8.6 | Dobbins | 28 | 1 | 0 | 4.9 |
| 2020 | at Was. | Edwards | 38 | 0 | 0 | 3.8 | Dobbins | 16 | 1 | 0 | 2.7 |
| 2020 | at N.E. | Edwards | 42 | 31 | 0 | 8.3 | Dobbins | 13 | 1 | 0 | 2.4 |
| 2022 | at Pit. | Edwards | 66 | 0 | 0 | 6.6 | Dobbins | 120 | 0 | 1 | 18.0 |
| 2022 | at Cle. | Edwards | 55 | 0 | 0 | 5.5 | Dobbins | 125 | 3 | 0 | 13.8 |
| 2022 | Pit. | Edwards | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | Dobbins | 93 | 0 | 0 | 9.3 |
| 2022 | Atl. | Edwards | 99 | 0 | 0 | 9.9 | Dobbins | 59 | 0 | 0 | 5.9 |
| 2023 | Hou. | Edwards | 32 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | Dobbins | 22 | 15 | 1 | 11.7 |
The important caveat is that Dobbins is coming off an Achilles injury, suffered in Week 1 a year ago. That doubtless kept his price down in free agency (and will in fantasy drafts), and makes it risky to count on him. Both Edwards and Dobbins have torn ACLs in their rearview mirror, as well.
But let's see what kind of work he's able to do in training camp and the preseason. If weighing injuries heavily, Edwards is perhaps the safer pick. But if we're talking about which player might actually be a significant fantasy back, I'll go for the upside of Dobbins. If he's healthy, the history indicates he's a lot more likely to be useful this season.
--Andy Richardson