Around the NFL

April 18, 2024

Dobbins and Edwards

Chargers reunite backfield duo

As anticipated, the Chargers have signed running back J.K. Dobbins. With Gus Edwards also under contract, they've got both Ravens main runners from the last few years, the offensive coordinator (Greg Roman) from most of those teams, and I notice the head coaches (John and Jim Harbaugh) even have the same last name. Spooky.

So it's Ravens West, with a lot of the same pieces in place, and a coaching staff bound and determined to run the ball (since they dumped their best wide receivers from the last few years, they might have little choice). Reasonable to downgrade Justin Herbert, as it's been since they hired Harbaugh, and maybe disregard the mock drafts that think Los Angeles will be selecting one of the draft's top wide receivers at No. 5 overall. Just doesn't seem to be their modus operandi.

The question is how great will the running backs be? Should definitely be a committee, holding down the value of both. But does it kill it? Maybe not.

Over the past four years, there were 20 games in Baltimore when both Edwards and Dobbins were healthy and available. Most of those games (15) were in Dobbins' rookie season of 2020, but also five in 2022 and 2023. (Both missed all of the 2021 season.)

Based on the history (and again, this was with Roman running the offense for all but one of those games), Dobbins is the guy to consider in drafts. Not only was he a lot better than Edwards, but the committee didn't keep him from putting up decent numbers in a majority of his healthy games.

Table shows all games that both players were healthy the last four years. Games where either scored double-digit points in PPR leagues are in bold. Edwards reached that total just five times in 20 games, and had 15 points just once.

Dobbins scored double-digits points in more than half (11) of those games, with four games over 15 points and five more with over 13. If you're going to gamble on one of these two backs, never mind that he was signed later -- Dobbins is the guy with a better chance of being a factor in fantasy leagues.

DOBBINS AND EDWARDS TOGETHER, 2020-2023
Year	Opp	Player	Run	Rec	TD	Pts	Player	Run	Rec	TD	Pts
2020	at Cin.	Edwards	60	10	0	8.0	Dobbins	160	0	2	28.0
2020	Ten.	Edwards	6	0	0	0.6	Dobbins	70	15	1	16.5
2020	Jac.	Edwards	42	36	0	9.8	Dobbins	64	17	1	15.1
2020	Cle.	Edwards	17	0	0	1.7	Dobbins	22	0	2	14.2
2020	NYG	Edwards	85	37	0	14.2	Dobbins	77	0	1	13.7
2020	Pit.	Edwards	87	0	1	14.7	Dobbins	113	8	0	13.1
2020	Dal.	Edwards	101	0	0	10.1	Dobbins	71	0	1	13.1
2020	at Cle.	Edwards	49	4	2	18.3	Dobbins	53	0	1	11.3
2020	Cin.	Edwards	25	0	0	2.5	Dobbins	34	21	0	8.5
2020	K.C.	Edwards	39	0	0	3.9	Dobbins	6	38	0	8.4
2020	at Hou.	Edwards	73	0	0	7.3	Dobbins	48	13	0	7.1
2020	at Ind.	Edwards	23	11	1	11.4	Dobbins	30	5	0	5.5
2020	at Phi.	Edwards	26	0	1	8.6	Dobbins	28	1	0	4.9
2020	at Was.	Edwards	38	0	0	3.8	Dobbins	16	1	0	2.7
2020	at N.E.	Edwards	42	31	0	8.3	Dobbins	13	1	0	2.4
2022	at Pit.	Edwards	66	0	0	6.6	Dobbins	120	0	1	18.0
2022	at Cle.	Edwards	55	0	0	5.5	Dobbins	125	3	0	13.8
2022	Pit.	Edwards	2	0	0	0.2	Dobbins	93	0	0	9.3
2022	Atl.	Edwards	99	0	0	9.9	Dobbins	59	0	0	5.9
2023	Hou.	Edwards	32	0	0	3.2	Dobbins	22	15	1	11.7

The important caveat is that Dobbins is coming off an Achilles injury, suffered in Week 1 a year ago. That doubtless kept his price down in free agency (and will in fantasy drafts), and makes it risky to count on him. Both Edwards and Dobbins have torn ACLs in their rearview mirror, as well.

But let's see what kind of work he's able to do in training camp and the preseason. If weighing injuries heavily, Edwards is perhaps the safer pick. But if we're talking about which player might actually be a significant fantasy back, I'll go for the upside of Dobbins. If he's healthy, the history indicates he's a lot more likely to be useful this season.

--Andy Richardson

Gus Edwards J.K. Dobbins

11 Reader Comments:

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA

2024-04-18T15:38:14Z

I'm not sure they're done at the position. It's a 17-game season, and they're going to be running the ball a ton. I'm expecting they'll be adding another back who's similar in significance to these guys. Maybe one in the third or fourth round?

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY

2024-04-18T16:05:48Z

Some of the higher-level contracts that veteran running backs have signed this offseason, and a lot of predraft talk in general, indicates there might not be a lot of well-liked backs in the class. No doubt teams will still be drafting running backs as always, but there might not be many guys who come in with a huge role right away.

Paul Desimone

Hayward, CA

2024-04-18T16:22:39Z

G'mornin' Andy.
The service provider for the leagues I play in (Yahoo) just reopened yesterday. They aren't feeling a lot of love for the Chargers, judging by their ADP. Edwards leads the parade with an ADP of 95, with the holdover receivers Joshua Palmer and Quenton Johnston at 121 and 134. Dobbins is next at 1:38, and Justin Herbert at 140 (ouch! I've never had the guy on any of my teams, but ranking him behind a running back just coming off an Achilles just feels like an insult.)
I take ADPs in April with a grain of salt, but I can't picture any potential changes that lift any of these guys from their relative positions as of now. I'll be looking forward to seeing where you rank these guys as we draw close to our drafts.

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA

2024-04-18T16:23:09Z

I wonder if Harbaugh would be interested in Blake Corum? Less than ideal size, but he was very productive for him at Michigan. When Harbaugh was at San Francisco, he drafted nobody who had played for him at Stanford.

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA

2024-04-18T16:26:54Z

When Pete Carroll took over in Seattle, everyone figured there would be a Southern Cal pipeline. Many thought he would take Taylor Mays in the first round. He not only didn't take Mays, he took another player at the same position (Earl Thomas). In his first draft, Carroll took one USC player (a forgotten tight end in the sixth round). In his second draft, he took one USC player (linebacker Malcolm Smith in the seventh round).

Philip Haines

De Pere, WI

2024-04-18T17:04:46Z

Speaking of shipping off their main receivers, Roman got good production out of his tight ends. Which Charger TE do you think looks most likely to possibly fill that role? (focusing on TDs here). Or might they draft for that position?

Ian Allan

Seattle, WA

2024-04-18T17:08:13Z

Chargers visited with Brock Bowers. If they select him, it would be reasonable to be thinking about him putting up top-5 numbers as a rookie (among tight ends). As things stand, they've got Hayden Hurst and Will Dissly. I think both of those guys will play. I'm not sure that I'd be interested in either as a second tight end. If we're talking 12-team league, they would need to be one of my top-24 tight ends to be a second tight end in that kind of a league. I don't think either will be in my top 24.

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY

2024-04-18T18:01:49Z

Paul since you mention that Yahoo just opened yesterday, ADP information seems even less significant than I would ordinarily consider it. Even if I did value it, at a bare minimum Edwards will be plummeting with Dobbins now also on the roster. And of course the draft will dramatically alter the landscape at every position. Only general statement I'll make is that yeah, none of those guys look like particularly desirable starters in fantasy leagues at this point. The passing game is headed down and the running game might not have a clear No. 1, at least right now. I have interest in Dobbins because there's at least some theoretical upside in the guy.

Paul Desimone

Hayward, CA

2024-04-18T18:18:51Z

Sure, I'm down with that (Dobbins having some potential, and definitely more attractive than Edwards). Just a little surprised with the Herbert ranking, really. We know how Harbaugh and Roman want to play it. But I think they're going to be in a lot more firefights than slugfests because I don't think the defense is capable of holding other teams down

Andy Richardson

Port Chester, NY

2024-04-18T18:34:11Z

The important number with Herbert is not the 140 overall but where he ranks at QB. If he’s not one of the top 12, or 10 in a 10-team league, he’s not going to be coveted in drafts. I don’t have a board right now, because I would never consider drafting at this ridiculously early time, but off the top of my head I can definitely come up with 10 QBs I like more than Herbert in fantasy, and probably 2-3 more. Defense not great but having a running game, which they didn’t last year, will help a lot.

Paul Desimone

Hayward, CA

2024-04-18T19:25:13Z

Thanks Andy, I appreciate the views. Can't get "em anywhere else. Time for me to git.

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Dobbins and Edwards

11 Reader Comments:

Ian Allan

Andy Richardson

Paul Desimone

Ian Allan

Ian Allan

Philip Haines

Ian Allan

Andy Richardson

Paul Desimone

Andy Richardson

Paul Desimone

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