Courtland Sutton is staying away from Denver’s offseason workouts, and I can’t say I blame him. He wants a new contract, and his value will never be higher.
Sutton caught only 59 passes last year, but no wide receiver made more highlight-quality catches. He scored 10 touchdowns, and half of them were really impressive.
At Kansas City and again at Buffalo, Sutton somehow came down with contested sideline catches that didn’t seem possible to the naked eye. Two of the half-dozen most impressive catches of the season, I think. Note on his 2023 Highlight Package that on both of those touchdowns, the play-by-play guys on television (Al Michaels, Joe Buck) have no idea whether those catches were even made and don’t really seem to be seriously considering the possibility.
Against the Texans and Chargers, Sutton scored on touchdown bombs despite having to overcome defensive pass interference. And there was a leaping game-winner against Minnesota. Sutton was phenomenal last year.
And with those touchdowns, Sutton scored on 17 percent of his catches last year. Fifty wide receivers last year caught at least 50 passes, and that was the highest rate of all of them.
| PERCENTAGE OF TOUCHDOWNS (2023) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Rec | Yds | TD | Pct |
| Courtland Sutton, Den. | 59 | 772 | 10 | 16.9% |
| Mike Evans, T.B. | 79 | 1,255 | 13 | 16.5% |
| Brandin Cooks, Dall. | 54 | 657 | 8 | 14.8% |
| Jordan Addison, Min. | 70 | 911 | 10 | 14.3% |
| Romeo Doubs, G.B. | 59 | 674 | 8 | 13.6% |
| Jayden Reed, G.B. | 64 | 793 | 8 | 12.5% |
| DK Metcalf, Sea. | 66 | 1,114 | 8 | 12.1% |
| Deebo Samuel, S.F. | 60 | 892 | 7 | 11.7% |
| Jakobi Meyers, L.V. | 71 | 807 | 8 | 11.3% |
| Tyreek Hill, Mia. | 119 | 1,799 | 13 | 10.9% |
| Calvin Ridley, Jac. | 76 | 1,016 | 8 | 10.5% |
| Nico Collins, Hou. | 80 | 1,297 | 8 | 10.0% |
| Diontae Johnson, Pitt. | 51 | 717 | 5 | 9.8% |
| DeAndre Hopkins, Ten. | 75 | 1,057 | 7 | 9.3% |
| Brandon Aiyuk, S.F. | 75 | 1,342 | 7 | 9.3% |
| CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 135 | 1,749 | 12 | 8.9% |
| Rashee Rice, K.C. | 79 | 938 | 7 | 8.9% |
| DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 81 | 1,066 | 7 | 8.6% |
| Cooper Kupp, LAR | 59 | 737 | 5 | 8.5% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 119 | 1,515 | 10 | 8.4% |
| DJ Moore, Chi. | 96 | 1,364 | 8 | 8.3% |
| Darius Slayton, NYG | 50 | 770 | 4 | 8.0% |
| George Pickens, Pitt. | 63 | 1,140 | 5 | 7.9% |
| Marquise Brown, Ari. | 51 | 574 | 4 | 7.8% |
| Davante Adams, L.V. | 103 | 1,144 | 8 | 7.8% |
| Stefon Diggs, Buff. | 107 | 1,183 | 8 | 7.5% |
| Justin Jefferson, Min. | 68 | 1,074 | 5 | 7.4% |
| JaMarr Chase, Cin. | 100 | 1,216 | 7 | 7.0% |
| Amari Cooper, Cle. | 72 | 1,250 | 5 | 6.9% |
| A.J. Brown, Phil. | 106 | 1,456 | 7 | 6.6% |
| Zay Flowers, Balt. | 77 | 858 | 5 | 6.5% |
| Keenan Allen, LAC | 108 | 1,243 | 7 | 6.5% |
| Curtis Samuel, Was. | 62 | 613 | 4 | 6.5% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sea. | 63 | 628 | 4 | 6.3% |
| Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 79 | 894 | 5 | 6.3% |
| Chris Olave, N.O. | 87 | 1,123 | 5 | 5.7% |
| Puka Nacua, LAR | 105 | 1,486 | 6 | 5.7% |
| Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 72 | 1,014 | 4 | 5.6% |
| Christian Kirk, Jac. | 57 | 787 | 3 | 5.3% |
| Terry McLaurin, Was. | 79 | 1,002 | 4 | 5.1% |
| Adam Thielen, Car. | 103 | 1,014 | 4 | 3.9% |
| Jerry Jeudy, Den. | 54 | 758 | 2 | 3.7% |
| Michael Pittman, Ind. | 109 | 1,152 | 4 | 3.7% |
| Elijah Moore, Cle. | 59 | 640 | 2 | 3.4% |
| Garrett Wilson, NYJ | 95 | 1,042 | 3 | 3.2% |
| Tyler Boyd, Cin. | 67 | 667 | 2 | 3.0% |
| Josh Downs, Ind. | 68 | 771 | 2 | 2.9% |
| Drake London, Atl. | 69 | 905 | 2 | 2.9% |
| Chris Godwin, T.B. | 83 | 1,024 | 2 | 2.4% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson, NYG | 60 | 525 | 1 | 1.7% |
Past performance, of course, does not guaranteed future results. If we instead look at the previous two seasons, Sutton graded out as the 2nd-worst receiver in the league using that metric. He scored on only 4 of his 122 receptions in those seasons. Of the 43 wide receivers with at least 100 catches, only Chase Claypool finished with a lower scoring percentage.
Circling back to the initial news story, it therefore makes sense for Sutton to be chirping about his contract right now. The impression right now is that he’s a playmaker who scores touchdown. The wider-lens stats indicate that won’t necessarily remain the case for long.
| TOUCHDOWN PERCENTAGE (previous 2 yrs) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Rec | Yards | TD | Pct |
| Allen Lazard | 100 | 1,301 | 14 | 14.0% |
| Mike Evans | 151 | 2,159 | 20 | 13.2% |
| JaMarr Chase | 168 | 2,501 | 22 | 13.1% |
| Adam Thielen | 137 | 1,442 | 16 | 11.7% |
| Amari Cooper | 146 | 2,025 | 17 | 11.6% |
| Davante Adams | 223 | 3,069 | 25 | 11.2% |
| DK Metcalf | 165 | 2,015 | 18 | 10.9% |
| K.J. Osborn | 110 | 1,305 | 12 | 10.9% |
| Tyler Lockett | 157 | 2,208 | 17 | 10.8% |
| A.J. Brown | 151 | 2,365 | 16 | 10.6% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 106 | 1,289 | 11 | 10.4% |
| Cooper Kupp | 220 | 2,759 | 22 | 10.0% |
| Stefon Diggs | 211 | 2,654 | 21 | 10.0% |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 134 | 1,841 | 13 | 9.7% |
| Mike Williams | 139 | 2,041 | 13 | 9.4% |
| Tee Higgins | 148 | 2,120 | 13 | 8.8% |
| Christian Kirk | 161 | 2,090 | 13 | 8.1% |
| CeeDee Lamb | 186 | 2,461 | 15 | 8.1% |
| Tyler Boyd | 125 | 1,590 | 10 | 8.0% |
| Hunter Renfrow | 139 | 1,368 | 11 | 7.9% |
| Jaylen Waddle | 179 | 2,371 | 14 | 7.8% |
| Russell Gage | 117 | 1,196 | 9 | 7.7% |
| Justin Jefferson | 236 | 3,425 | 18 | 7.6% |
| DeVonta Smith | 159 | 2,112 | 12 | 7.5% |
| DJ Moore | 156 | 2,045 | 11 | 7.1% |
| Tyreek Hill | 230 | 2,949 | 16 | 7.0% |
| Joshua Palmer | 105 | 1,122 | 7 | 6.7% |
| Terry McLaurin | 154 | 2,244 | 10 | 6.5% |
| Brandin Cooks | 147 | 1,736 | 9 | 6.1% |
| Deebo Samuel | 133 | 2,037 | 8 | 6.0% |
| Marvin Jones | 119 | 1,361 | 7 | 5.9% |
| Keenan Allen | 172 | 1,890 | 10 | 5.8% |
| Jerry Jeudy | 105 | 1,439 | 6 | 5.7% |
| Marquise Brown | 158 | 1,717 | 9 | 5.7% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 196 | 2,073 | 11 | 5.6% |
| Michael Pittman | 187 | 2,007 | 10 | 5.3% |
| Jakobi Meyers | 150 | 1,670 | 8 | 5.3% |
| Darnell Mooney | 121 | 1,548 | 6 | 5.0% |
| Zay Jones | 129 | 1,369 | 6 | 4.7% |
| Diontae Johnson | 193 | 2,043 | 8 | 4.1% |
| Chris Godwin | 202 | 2,126 | 8 | 4.0% |
| Courtland Sutton | 122 | 1,605 | 4 | 3.3% |
| Chase Claypool | 105 | 1,311 | 3 | 2.9% |
—Ian Allan