There are reports suggesting the Raiders are trying to make a blockbuster move for Jayden Daniels. It doesn’t surprise me. They’re sitting in the AFC West, playing Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert twice per year; they know the value of a franchise quarterback.
In today’s game, you need to get the quarterback position right. If you can get one on a cost-controlled rookie deal, that’s even better.
The Broncos and Vikings are also on the quarterback hunt, so it’s going to take a considerable package to get a deal done.
For fantasy purposes, I expect Daniels will be the No. 2 rookie quarterback on my board. I’m not sure if Daniels will have a better NFL career than Drake Maye, but his running ability makes him a far more enticing possibility for the short term.
Daniels ran for 1,134 yards and 10 TDs last year at Louisiana State. He can move, and he’s not shy about taking off. With Caleb Williams, he’s also mobile but is more interested in scrambling to buy time, creating big passes. Daniels is more apt to simply run if he doesn’t like what he sees.
I have noticed over the years that when it comes to rushing, it’s easier to forecast which quarterbacks will be good. The college stats are stickier. That is, when guys run for a bunch of yards and touchdowns at the college level, those guys (with few exceptions) tend to be the same guys who are productive runners at the pros. (The relationship isn't as strong if you instead look at college passing stats.)
Daniels’ college numbers indicate that he’ll be a productive runner in the NFL from Day One. I can’t guarantee how long he’ll stay healthy (he’s a leaner guy who exposes himself to way too many hits) but I expect he’ll be running for plenty of yards and touchdowns early.
Rushing stats for the top rookie quarterbacks prospects of the 32-team era appear below. I’ve got them sorted using 6 points for each rushing touchdown and 1 point for every 10 rushing yards. As a reminder, rushing stats are tabulated differently at the college level, with sacks counted as negative running plays (that brings down everyone’s rushing yards and per-carry average).
| COLLEGE QUARTERBACKS / RUSHING STATS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Att | Yards | Avg | TD | Pts |
| 2017 | Lamar Jackson | 260 | 1,571 | 6.04 | 21 | 283.1 |
| 2016 | Lamar Jackson | 232 | 1,601 | 6.90 | 18 | 268.1 |
| 2010 | Cam Newton | 264 | 1,473 | 5.58 | 20 | 267.3 |
| 2012 | Johnny Manziel | 201 | 1,410 | 7.01 | 21 | 267.0 |
| 2019 | Jalen Hurts (2nd Rd) | 233 | 1,298 | 5.57 | 20 | 249.8 |
| 2010 | Colin Kaepernick (2nd Rd) | 173 | 1,206 | 6.97 | 20 | 240.6 |
| 2007 | Tim Tebow | 210 | 895 | 4.26 | 23 | 227.5 |
| 2008 | Colin Kaepernick (2nd Rd) | 161 | 1,130 | 7.02 | 17 | 215.0 |
| 2009 | Colin Kaepernick (2nd Rd) | 161 | 1,183 | 7.35 | 16 | 214.3 |
| 2019 | Trey Lance | 169 | 1,100 | 6.51 | 14 | 194.0 |
| 2004 | Vince Young | 167 | 1,079 | 6.46 | 14 | 191.9 |
| 2015 | Deshaun Watson | 207 | 1,105 | 5.34 | 12 | 182.5 |
| 2005 | Vince Young | 155 | 1,050 | 6.77 | 12 | 177.0 |
| 2007 | Jake Locker | 172 | 986 | 5.73 | 13 | 176.6 |
| 2009 | Tim Tebow | 217 | 910 | 4.19 | 14 | 175.0 |
| 2023 | Jayden Daniels | 135 | 1,134 | 8.40 | 10 | 173.4 |
| 2016 | Jalen Hurts (2nd Rd) | 191 | 954 | 4.99 | 13 | 173.4 |
| 2018 | Kyler Murray | 140 | 1,001 | 7.15 | 12 | 172.1 |
| 2014 | Marcus Mariota | 135 | 770 | 5.70 | 15 | 167.0 |
| 2003 | Vince Young | 135 | 998 | 7.39 | 11 | 165.8 |
| 2008 | Robert Griffin | 173 | 843 | 4.87 | 13 | 162.3 |
| 2015 | Lamar Jackson | 163 | 960 | 5.89 | 11 | 162.0 |
| 2022 | Jayden Daniels | 186 | 885 | 4.76 | 11 | 154.5 |
| 2008 | Tim Tebow | 176 | 673 | 3.82 | 12 | 139.3 |
| 2017 | Jalen Hurts (2nd Rd) | 154 | 855 | 5.55 | 8 | 133.5 |
| 2013 | Johnny Manziel | 144 | 759 | 5.27 | 9 | 129.9 |
| 2011 | Robert Griffin | 179 | 699 | 3.91 | 10 | 129.9 |
| 2013 | Marcus Mariota | 96 | 715 | 7.45 | 9 | 125.5 |
| 2008 | Josh Freeman | 107 | 404 | 3.78 | 14 | 124.4 |
| 2004 | Alex Smith | 135 | 631 | 4.67 | 10 | 123.1 |
—Ian Allan