I expect I’m going to be higher than most on Jayden Daniels. With how he runs, I’m thinking he might be the key quarterback pick this year. I also like Caleb Williams, but I think Daniels’ numbers this year might be even better.
I understand that Williams is working with that nice trio of receivers, and he’s also got great mobility. But Daniels looks like he’s going to be elite as a runner, and with a willingness to make that a huge part of his game.
I saw him saying the other week that he hopes to put up rushing numbers that exceed even what Michael Vick and Lamar Jackson have done. I’m not sure that’s a good goal (with him being on the lean side) but it should be fun while it lasts.
Daniels didn’t run for the clock at the combine, but he’s definitely fast. He averaged 8.4 yards per carry last year. There have been nine other quarterbacks who’ve run for 1,000-plus yards in a season in college, then been drafted in the first or second round. Daniels averaged over a yard more per carry than all of them. I think we’re looking at a thinner version of Lamar Jackson.
I think it’s conservative to say that Daniels will be averaging over 40 rushing yards in games he starts. Below see the list of other quarterbacks in the 32-team era that have started half the season and averaged over 40 rushing yards. All but one of them also finished with above-average overall per game numbers (for fantasy purposes), when compared to other QBs in those seasons.
You might fairly point out that two recent seasons by Josh Allen are on the list. It’s not really fair to compare Daniels to a veteran quarterback playing at a Hall of Fame level. That’s fair. But most of the quarterbacks listed below didn’t put up notable passing stats. Fewer than half of these quarterbacks averaged more than 210 passing yards per game. (I’ve got the guys at 210 and below tagged with dots.)
If we (very) conservative assume Daniels averages about 200 passing yards, with perhaps 20 TDs, his rushing numbers might help him finish as one of the top half-dozen quarterbacks in the league (at least for fantasy purposes).
Definitely a guy who’ll be factoring into my draft plans.
In the chart below, I wasn’t sure how to sort them. Could be done chronologically or descending by fantasy points per game. But I ordered them by rushing productions. Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields are the only two who averaged over 70 rushing yards, so I’ve got them at the top.
| QUARTERBACKS AVERAGING 40-PLUS RUSHING YARDS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | St | Pass | TDP | Run | TDR | Pt/G | Rk |
| 2019 | • Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 15 | 208 | 2.40 | 80 | .47 | 30.9 | 1 |
| 2022 | • Justin Fields, Chi. | 15 | 149 | 1.13 | 76 | .53 | 23.0 | 6 |
| 2020 | • Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 15 | 184 | 1.73 | 67 | .47 | 25.8 | 8 |
| 2006 | • Michael Vick, Atl. | 16 | 155 | 1.25 | 65 | .13 | 20.0 | 6 |
| 2021 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 12 | 240 | 1.33 | 64 | .17 | 24.7 | 6 |
| 2022 | • Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 12 | 187 | 1.42 | 64 | .25 | 23.0 | 5 |
| 2013 | • Terrelle Pryor, Oak. | 9 | 196 | .78 | 61 | .22 | 20.4 | 17 |
| 2004 | • Michael Vick, Atl. | 15 | 154 | .93 | 60 | .20 | 18.7 | 16 |
| 2011 | • Tim Tebow, Den. | 11 | 150 | 1.00 | 57 | .45 | 20.3 | 12 |
| 2018 | • Josh Allen, Buff. | 11 | 182 | .91 | 55 | .73 | 22.8 | 13 |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin, Was. | 15 | 213 | 1.33 | 54 | .47 | 24.2 | 5 |
| 2014 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 217 | 1.25 | 53 | .38 | 23.4 | 6 |
| 2021 | • Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 15 | 210 | 1.07 | 52 | .67 | 24.0 | 10 |
| 2010 | Michael Vick, Phil. | 11 | 258 | 1.82 | 52 | .82 | 30.5 | 1 |
| 2002 | • Michael Vick, Atl. | 15 | 196 | 1.07 | 52 | .53 | 22.4 | 5 |
| 2023 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 16 | 230 | 1.50 | 51 | .31 | 24.6 | 3 |
| 2020 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 16 | 248 | 1.63 | 51 | .69 | 28.2 | 3 |
| 2022 | Jalen Hurts, Phil. | 15 | 247 | 1.47 | 51 | .87 | 28.7 | 3 |
| 2023 | • Justin Fields, Chi. | 13 | 197 | 1.23 | 51 | .31 | 21.7 | 9 |
| 2022 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 16 | 268 | 2.19 | 48 | .44 | 29.8 | 1 |
| 2017 | • Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 206 | 1.38 | 47 | .38 | 22.9 | 4 |
| 2012 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 242 | 1.19 | 46 | .50 | 24.5 | 4 |
| 2002 | Donovan McNabb, Phil. | 10 | 229 | 1.70 | 46 | .60 | 26.8 | 1 |
| 2011 | Michael Vick, Phil. | 13 | 254 | 1.38 | 45 | .08 | 23.2 | 6 |
| 2021 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 17 | 259 | 2.12 | 45 | .35 | 28.3 | 1 |
| 2022 | • Daniel Jones, NYG | 16 | 200 | .94 | 44 | .44 | 21.1 | 13 |
| 2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 253 | 1.31 | 44 | .88 | 27.8 | 4 |
| 2016 | • Colin Kaepernick, S.F. | 11 | 204 | 1.45 | 43 | .18 | 21.5 | 13 |
| 2006 | • Vince Young, Ten. | 13 | 159 | .85 | 41 | .54 | 18.8 | 9 |
| 2015 | Tyrod Taylor, Buff. | 14 | 217 | 1.43 | 41 | .29 | 22.5 | 14 |
—Ian Allan