Michael Penix's selection at 8th overall was the biggest surprise in the first round of the draft, but Bo Nix being picked at 12th was only slightly less surprising. Most draft observers viewed him as either a second-rounder or at best a late-first -- not a top 12 pick.
Denver, of course, was desperate to add a quarterback, and if they'd traded back they might well have lost Nix to a team like the Raiders. So the question at this point is if they chose wisely.
Nix put up unreal numbers at Oregon last year, including a 45-3 TD to interception ratio, while completing over 77 percent of his passes -- highest of any first-round quarterback in the past 20 years. Does it matter?
As a predictor of NFL success, completion percentage doesn't look overly useful. These guys are playing in different offensive systems against different opponents, with different skill players around them. In Oregon's offense, Nix was throwing a ton of short passes around the line of scrimmage; it's not hard to be accurate on those throws.
We can look at past flops who have put up poor numbers in this regard -- I remember dinging Josh Freeman, who completed only 58 percent of his passes in his final year of college -- but also find plenty of guys with similar or worse percentages (Matt Ryan, Josh Allen) who have turned out just fine.
And there are several guys with Nix-level numbers who have struggled as pros, especially recently.
In the last 20 years, there have been 11 other quarterbacks drafted in the first round who completed at least 70 percent of their passes in their final year of college. I count three great pros -- Joe Burrow, Andrew Luck and (maybe too early, but I'll be generous) Tua Tagovailoa. Maybe Robert Griffin would have been great, had he been able to stay healthy. Teddy Bridgewater has been serviceable at times, but never great. It looks like Baker Mayfield has rebounded as a solid NFL starter, but it took him several years and several teams to get there.
A majority (and arguably a vast majority, depending on where we're putting guys like Griffin and Bridgewater) of those guys quickly washed out of the league or are headed that way (since they were given away this offseason by the teams that drafted them). Mac Jones, Zach Wilson, Brandon Weeden, Dwayne Haskins, Justin Fields.
Those favorable TD-Int ratios don't look particularly informative either. Haskins, Mariota, Wilson and Brady Quinn were also great in that area. Matt Ryan and Jordan Love were not (Jameis Winston wasn't, and that's been an accurate predictor at least). Joe Burrow (60 and 6) was stellar, but so was Teddy Bridgewater, and he's been just mediocre as a pro, throwing 47 interceptions while starting 65 games.
In general. I look at and weigh college numbers when evaluating incoming rookies, but best not to overrate them. Easy to find huge successes and bitter failures from guys who put up either favorable or unfavorable numbers in both areas.
Table shows all first-round picks from the last 20 years, sorted by completion percentage their final year of college, with yards, touchdowns and interceptions that year also shown.
| 1ST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS, 2005-2024 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft | Pk | Player | School | Com | Att | Pct | P Yds | TDP | Int |
| 2024 | 12 | Bo Nix | Oregon | 364 | 470 | 77.4 | 4508 | 45 | 3 |
| 2021 | 15 | Mac Jones | Alabama | 311 | 402 | 77.4 | 4500 | 41 | 4 |
| 2020 | 1 | Joe Burrow | Louisiana State | 402 | 527 | 76.3 | 5671 | 60 | 6 |
| 2021 | 2 | Zach Wilson | Brigham Young | 247 | 336 | 73.5 | 3692 | 33 | 3 |
| 2012 | 22 | Brandon Weeden | Oklahoma State | 408 | 564 | 72.3 | 4727 | 37 | 13 |
| 2024 | 10 | J.J. McCarthy | Michigan | 240 | 332 | 72.3 | 2991 | 22 | 4 |
| 2024 | 2 | Jayden Daniels | Louisiana State | 236 | 327 | 72.2 | 3812 | 40 | 4 |
| 2012 | 2 | Robert Griffin III | Baylor | 291 | 406 | 71.7 | 4293 | 37 | 6 |
| 2020 | 5 | Tua Tagovailoa | Alabama | 180 | 252 | 71.4 | 2840 | 33 | 3 |
| 2012 | 1 | Andrew Luck | Stanford | 288 | 404 | 71.3 | 3517 | 37 | 10 |
| 2014 | 32 | Teddy Bridgewater | Louisville | 303 | 427 | 71.0 | 3970 | 31 | 4 |
| 2018 | 1 | Baker Mayfield | Oklahoma | 285 | 404 | 70.5 | 4627 | 43 | 6 |
| 2021 | 10 | Justin Fields | Ohio State | 158 | 225 | 70.2 | 2100 | 22 | 6 |
| 2019 | 15 | Dwayne Haskins | Ohio State | 373 | 533 | 70.0 | 4831 | 50 | 8 |
| 2014 | 22 | Johnny Manziel | Texas A&M | 300 | 429 | 69.9 | 4114 | 37 | 13 |
| 2005 | 25 | Jason Campbell | Auburn | 188 | 270 | 69.6 | 2700 | 20 | 7 |
| 2021 | 1 | Trevor Lawrence | Clemson | 231 | 334 | 69.2 | 3153 | 24 | 9 |
| 2019 | 1 | Kyler Murray | Oklahoma | 260 | 377 | 69.0 | 4361 | 42 | 7 |
| 2024 | 1 | Caleb Williams | Southern California | 266 | 388 | 68.6 | 3633 | 30 | 5 |
| 2015 | 2 | Marcus Mariota | Oregon | 304 | 445 | 68.3 | 4454 | 42 | 4 |
| 2017 | 2 | Mitchell Trubisky | North Carolina | 304 | 447 | 68.0 | 3748 | 30 | 6 |
| 2013 | 16 | EJ Manuel | Florida State | 263 | 387 | 68.0 | 3397 | 23 | 10 |
| 2007 | 1 | JaMarcus Russell | Louisiana State | 232 | 342 | 67.8 | 3129 | 28 | 8 |
| 2010 | 25 | Tim Tebow | Florida | 213 | 314 | 67.8 | 2895 | 21 | 5 |
| 2014 | 3 | Blake Bortles | Central Florida | 259 | 382 | 67.8 | 3581 | 25 | 9 |
| 2005 | 1 | Alex Smith | Utah | 214 | 317 | 67.5 | 2952 | 32 | 4 |
| 2022 | 20 | Kenny Pickett | Pittsburgh | 334 | 497 | 67.2 | 4319 | 42 | 7 |
| 2017 | 12 | Deshaun Watson | Clemson | 388 | 579 | 67.0 | 4593 | 41 | 17 |
| 2021 | 3 | Trey Lance | North Dakota State | 192 | 287 | 66.9 | 2786 | 28 | 0 |
| 2020 | 6 | Justin Herbert | Oregon | 286 | 428 | 66.8 | 3471 | 32 | 6 |
| 2016 | 26 | Paxton Lynch | Memphis | 296 | 443 | 66.8 | 3776 | 28 | 4 |
| 2023 | 2 | C.J. Stroud | Ohio State | 258 | 389 | 66.3 | 3688 | 41 | 6 |
| 2005 | 24 | Aaron Rodgers | California | 209 | 316 | 66.1 | 2566 | 24 | 8 |
| 2011 | 1 | Cam Newton | Auburn | 185 | 280 | 66.1 | 2854 | 30 | 7 |
| 2009 | 5 | Mark Sanchez | Southern California | 241 | 366 | 65.8 | 3207 | 34 | 10 |
| 2006 | 10 | Matt Leinart | Southern California | 283 | 431 | 65.7 | 3815 | 28 | 8 |
| 2017 | 10 | Patrick Mahomes | Texas Tech | 388 | 591 | 65.7 | 5052 | 41 | 10 |
| 2024 | 8 | Michael Penix | Washington | 363 | 555 | 65.4 | 4903 | 36 | 11 |
| 2015 | 1 | Jameis Winston | Florida State | 305 | 467 | 65.3 | 3907 | 25 | 18 |
| 2006 | 3 | Vince Young | Texas | 212 | 325 | 65.2 | 3036 | 26 | 10 |
| 2023 | 1 | Bryce Young | Alabama | 245 | 380 | 64.5 | 3328 | 32 | 5 |
| 2016 | 1 | Jared Goff | California | 341 | 529 | 64.5 | 4719 | 43 | 13 |
| 2008 | 18 | Joe Flacco | Delaware | 331 | 521 | 63.5 | 4263 | 23 | 5 |
| 2011 | 10 | Blaine Gabbert | Missouri | 301 | 475 | 63.4 | 3186 | 16 | 9 |
| 2024 | 3 | Drake Maye | North Carolina | 269 | 425 | 63.3 | 3608 | 24 | 9 |
| 2018 | 3 | Sam Darnold | Southern California | 303 | 480 | 63.1 | 4143 | 26 | 13 |
| 2018 | 10 | Josh Rosen | UCLA | 283 | 452 | 62.6 | 3756 | 26 | 10 |
| 2016 | 2 | Carson Wentz | North Dakota State | 130 | 208 | 62.5 | 1651 | 17 | 4 |
| 2020 | 26 | Jordan Love | Utah State | 293 | 473 | 61.9 | 3402 | 20 | 17 |
| 2007 | 22 | Brady Quinn | Notre Dame | 289 | 467 | 61.9 | 3426 | 37 | 7 |
| 2012 | 8 | Ryan Tannehill | Texas A&M | 327 | 531 | 61.6 | 3744 | 29 | 15 |
| 2011 | 12 | Christian Ponder | Florida State | 184 | 299 | 61.5 | 2044 | 20 | 8 |
| 2009 | 1 | Matthew Stafford | Georgia | 235 | 383 | 61.4 | 3459 | 25 | 10 |
| 2019 | 6 | Daniel Jones | Duke | 237 | 392 | 60.5 | 2674 | 22 | 9 |
| 2008 | 3 | Matt Ryan | Boston College | 388 | 654 | 59.3 | 4507 | 31 | 19 |
| 2006 | 11 | Jay Cutler | Vanderbilt | 273 | 462 | 59.1 | 3073 | 21 | 9 |
| 2018 | 32 | Lamar Jackson | Louisville | 254 | 430 | 59.1 | 3660 | 27 | 10 |
| 2009 | 17 | Josh Freeman | Kansas State | 224 | 382 | 58.6 | 2945 | 20 | 8 |
| 2010 | 1 | Sam Bradford | Oklahoma | 39 | 69 | 56.5 | 562 | 2 | 0 |
| 2018 | 7 | Josh Allen | Wyoming | 152 | 270 | 56.3 | 1812 | 16 | 6 |
| 2011 | 8 | Jake Locker | Washington | 184 | 332 | 55.4 | 2265 | 17 | 9 |
| 2023 | 4 | Anthony Richardson | Florida | 176 | 327 | 53.8 | 2549 | 17 | 9 |
What I will say for Nix is that he seems to be in a good situation. Sean Payton is somewhat overrated as far as an offensive guru, I think, but he certainly had a nice run with Drew Brees. (As a second-rounder and 2001 pick, Brees doesn't make this table, but he completed 60.5 percent his final year of college, and would show up in the Daniel Jones/Matt Ryan area.) Rather than being stuck with Russell Wilson, Payton this year has a quarterback he was able to choose himself, apparently believing he can develop him in his offense. I think Payton believes he has his next Brees. We'll soon find out.
--Andy Richardson