One rookie running back I feel pretty good about coming into some value this year is Buffalo fourth-rounder Ray Davis. I think he brings something to the roster that they don't otherwise have. At least based on last year, there should be an opportunity for him to help them out.
They did pretty well with James Cook as their main back last year; better than I expected. But Cook is just 190 pounds, and the team had little interest in using him to carry the ball around the goal line. That's where Davis, the Kentucky back who's a bowling-ball like 5-foot-8 and 211 pounds, might be able to contribute. He ran in 14 touchdowns last season, and also helped out in the passing game near the end zone (he caught an additional 7 scores).
Buffalo, meanwhile, carried the ball 20 times from the goal line last year. That was more than any team but San Francisco. Only 55 percent of those carries resulted in touchdowns, which was below-average. But the opportunities are there.
| GOAL LINE RUSHING, 2023 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Att | Yds | TD | EZ% |
| San Francisco | 23 | 19 | 14 | 60.9% |
| Buffalo | 20 | 14 | 11 | 55.0% |
| New Orleans | 18 | 19 | 9 | 61.1% |
| Arizona | 18 | 11 | 7 | 55.6% |
| LA Chargers | 18 | 10 | 8 | 44.4% |
| Cincinnati | 17 | 10 | 9 | 52.9% |
| Indianapolis | 17 | 10 | 7 | 41.2% |
| Houston | 17 | 0 | 5 | 35.3% |
| Philadelphia | 16 | 15 | 12 | 81.3% |
| Detroit | 16 | 13 | 10 | 68.8% |
| Jacksonville | 16 | 10 | 8 | 62.5% |
| Baltimore | 15 | 18 | 11 | 80.0% |
| Cleveland | 15 | 16 | 6 | 73.3% |
| Washington | 15 | 10 | 6 | 53.3% |
| LA Rams | 14 | 12 | 8 | 64.3% |
| Miami | 14 | 6 | 9 | 64.3% |
| Green Bay | 14 | 10 | 5 | 35.7% |
| Chicago | 13 | 10 | 8 | 69.2% |
| Dallas | 13 | 4 | 5 | 46.2% |
| Las Vegas | 12 | 8 | 6 | 58.3% |
| Tennessee | 11 | 7 | 7 | 63.6% |
| Denver | 11 | 6 | 4 | 54.5% |
| Kansas City | 11 | 0 | 6 | 54.5% |
| Seattle | 11 | -2 | 5 | 45.5% |
| Pittsburgh | 11 | -6 | 3 | 27.3% |
| Tampa Bay | 9 | 5 | 6 | 66.7% |
| Carolina | 9 | 2 | 3 | 55.6% |
| Minnesota | 9 | -3 | 3 | 33.3% |
| Atlanta | 7 | -5 | 1 | 14.3% |
| New England | 5 | 7 | 4 | 80.0% |
| NY Giants | 5 | 5 | 3 | 80.0% |
| NY Jets | 4 | 7 | 2 | 100.0% |
Josh Allen accounted for a team-high 8 of those attempts, but unlike with say the Eagles, he wasn't the only one getting chances down there. Latavius Murray (another bigger back) got 7 attempts, while Damien Harris got 2 in his brief time on the roster at the start of the season, and Leonard Fournette (yes, he was briefly a Bill) got 1. All three of those guys are now gone. Cook got only 2 attempts in that area all year; they didn't use him.
Buffalo also has Ty Johnson (5-10, 210); that's Davis' competition in the preseason. So I think the chances are pretty solid the rookie will get most of that work right away.
It's not a given, but Davis is one of the rookies I'll have some interest in selecting in drafts this summer. The opportunity and workload should be there for him to help lineups, especially in touchdown-heavy systems. Not that Allen himself won't get a lot of those chances, but maybe Buffalo will try to scale it back a little, with Davis on the roster.
--Andy Richardson