Memorial Day Weekend is upon us. This is the awkward time where it’s no longer early, but some fantasy rosters are still benefiting from unsustainable starts while others are struggling because some of their foundation players are slow out of the gate.

Either way, it’s time to make an honest assessment of your roster. Have you been overly lucky? Is continuing to exhibit excruciating patience the proper approach?

One or two over or underproducing pitchers can propel or crater a fantasy staff. There is plenty of time for water to find its level. What follows is a review of 10 starting pitchers with early number exceeding expectations.

Recommending selling high from my perfectly broken in desk chair is easy. I’m not the one fielding offers of 50 cents on the dollar. A good portion of leagues don’t allow trading. To be honest, every player should be available for the right price. Even that is too vague; there is no way to calibrate the right price. However, included with each pitcher is their current rank among starting pitchers, their ranking among starting pitchers ADP in the NFBC Main Event and my rest-of-season rank among starting pitchers. It's just one man's opinion, but the rest-of-season rank should help ballpark what to target in a trade. My projected ERA and WHIP are also displayed.

Pitcher	YTD	ADP	ROS	ERA	WHIP
Ranger Suarez	1	98	25	3.09	1.17

The best pitcher in fantasy baseball so far has been both good and lucky. He's been buoyed by a .226 BABIP and 87.0% left on base mark.

It's gambler's fallacy to suggest "luck evens out", so let's assume a league average BABIP and LOB%. Suarez's improved skills counter a lot of the expected regression, though it remains to be seen if Suarez can maintain his improved walk rate. He was around 8.9% the two prior seasons. This year, he's dropped to 4.9%.

A 2.65 xFIP and 2.74 SIERA reflect what Suarez's current skill level should have generated. Both are well over his actual 1.36 ERA. However, I am skeptical that Suarez maintains his current skills. Even so, a 3.09 ERA is still fantastic. If you can find someone

Pitcher	YTD	ADP	ROS	ERA	WHIP
Chris Sale	3	26	24	3.28	1.05

This is straightforward. Sale is performing a little better than expected, as he's enjoying a fortunate 82.3% left on base mark. However, even after the recent injury woes, Sale's skills remained elite. The lower ADP and rest of season rank reflect his health risk, and even if he avoids the IL, Sale's workload is likely to be managed as the season progresses.

Selling high is a tough ask, since everyone knows about the concern about innings. Perhaps there is someone desperate enough to take a chance Sale throws closer to 170 that 140 frames. More likely, you'll take it start to start, with the awareness that Sale could be out of your lineup at any time. He's not going to be discussed, but the same narrative holds for Tyler Glasnow.

Pitcher	YTD	ADP	ROS	ERA	WHIP
Seth Lugo	4	80	33	3.51	1.18

I can't count the number of times I've reviewed Lugo's rest-of-season projection and muttered, "Trust the system." My level of confidence usually reflects the pitcher's ability to miss bats, and in this case, that's a big, fat MEH.

Lugo's ERA is 1.79, fueled by a .253 BABIP and 90.1% left on base level. His 3.56 xFIP and 3.61 SIERA are essentially double his ERA. That said, I believe Lugo can maintain the skills driving those ERA estimators, and my rest-of-season projected ERA is in that neighborhood. Lugo's 17.6% K-BB% is consistent with recent seasons and he should benefit from the reduced-flight baseball, especially in Kauffman Stadium, and the other AL Central venues. Last season, Lugo posted a 3.57 ERA. it's not unreasonable to expect something similar for the balance of the campaign.

It's hard to imagine someone being more optimistic than this, so selling would be a chore. My plan is monitoring Lugo's home runs allowed, and if it spikes, first he'll be moved to reserve, and if it persists, I'll cut bait.

Pitcher	YTD	ADP	ROS	ERA	WHIP
Shota Imanaga	6	37	21	3.29	1.12

How hot is Imanaga? His early season exploits have vaulted him ahead of Yoshinobu Yamamoto as the favorite for the National League Rookie of the Year. Honestly, I'm shocked. The insane numbers, and great story, are blinding many to what has been learned about next-level pitching analysis.

Don't get me wrong: Imanaga is exceeding all expectations. However, he's doing it with a 93.8% left on base mark. This would be the highest level for any qualifying pitcher ever. League average is around 72.0%. Elite hurlers can approach 78.0%. Regression is imminent.

Imanaga's stuff is rated closely to that of Yamamoto, with Yamamoto exhibiting superior command and control in Japan. Imanaga's homers allowed were elevated relative to other pitchers in Japan. Coming into this season, that was the concern.

The Chicago Cubs trained Imanaga to throw higher in the zone. Subscribers to the Fantasy Index Newsletter learned this in the spring. It's clearly working as Imanaga has surrendered only three homers in 53.2 stanzas, but Wrigley Field shrinks as the mercury rises and the wind blow out over the ivy.

Being deemed the 21st best starting pitcher for the rest of the season is high praise. There are others ranking him higher. That's a lot of others and much higher. Find them and make a deal.

Pitcher	YTD	ADP	ROS	ERA	WHIP
Tanner Houck	8	105	22	3.36	1.19

 In full disclosure, I am a card-carrying member of Red Sox Nation. My earliest memories are mostly baseball, and go as far back as the early 70's. That said, Tanner Houck is a new guy this season. Sure, his 1.94 ERA is unstainable. He's mostly benefiting from a 2.6% home run per fly ball, but xFIP is designed to neutralize home run rate and Houck's xFIP is a tidy 2.84.

My projection is half a run higher, which reflects some wriggle room in case Houck can't maintain his current 4.7% walk rate. It was 8.9% each of the previous two years, so I'm allowing for some giveback. That said, there's nothing in Houck's game that has me worried.

Pitcher	YTD	ADP	ROS	ERA	WHIP
Dylan Cease	9	25	18	3.29	1.17

Formulaic projections can account for a lot. They flesh out luck via regression. They can adjust for changes in venue. They can't measure peace of mind, or confidence.

Cease flashed Cy Young skills with the Chicago White Sox. He was also inconsistent with frequent lapses in control. Pitching for a team going nowhere, with a bandbox for a home venue couldn't have done much for Cease's psyche.

Cease is clearly enjoying the move to the San Diego Padres. He's sporting a career low walk rate and isn't afraid to give up flyballs, secure they'll be handled in Petco Park as opposed to souvenirs in Guaranteed Rate Park. 

If you went the narrative route and drafted Cease hoping he'd benefit from a change in scenery, congrats. Expect more of the same from Cease over the final four months.

Pitcher	YTD	ADP	ROS	ERA	WHIP
Luis Gil	12	113	117	3.71	1.38

Before sharing a slew of negatives, Gil has been impressive. Health has always been an issue and remains the case. Missing bats has never been a problem and Gil's 31.2% strikeout rate is eighth highest among pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched. But...

Gil is taking advantage of an unsustainable .217 BABIP. His 13.6% walk rate is second worst among pitchers tossing at least 40 frames, so he needs all the batted ball luck he can muster. Gil is also boosted by a 80.3% left on base mark.

In terms of skills, Gil is doing what's expected. He should incur an ERA correction (lower LOB%) and WHIP adjustment (higher BABIP). The punchouts are enticing, and there's always the possibility that Gil improves his control. Even so, he's the prototypical sell high candidate, but good luck with that. His checkered injury history is enough to temper offers. Maybe the best way to frame it is I'd consider buying high on everyone else discussed so far (with some trepidation on Lugo). If Gil's team manager put him on the block, I'd pass.

Pitcher	YTD	ADP	ROS	ERA	WHIP
Yu Darvish	14	43	29	3.64	1.15

 It should be clear by now that anyone with top-of-the-pack earnings at this point of the season has been blessed with good fortune. In Darvish's case, it's a .228 BABIP, 77.7% left on base and 4.1% home run per fly ball. His strikeout and walk rates are on schedule. The ERA estimators flesh out the bias, with an associated 3.54 xFIP and 3.59 SIERA, which are both in sync with my projected ERA. That is, I see Darvish maintaining his skills with normalized luck.

There is another factor which could influence trading. Darvish is 37 years old and is coming off a season where he threw only 136.1 innings. The current projection is for 164 frames for the season. He could surpass that by a bit, or more likely, Darvish falls short.

Pitcher	YTD	ADP	ROS	ERA	WHIP
Jared Jones	15	109	69	3.71	1.20

 Early in the season, Jones was overshadowed by Imanaga. Now he's lost in the aura of Paul Skenes. It's difficult to gauge if Jones has exceeded expectations since he didn't have enough of a track record to baseline a foundation. Sure, his 2003 performance in Double-A and Triple-A can be translated via MLE, but that's hardly trustworthy. 

What we can do is examine the luck-based metrics. Jones is carrying a .261 BABIP, which is a tad low, along with a high 84.1% left on base mark. It's the latter rescuing the rookie from a high 15.6% home run per fly ball. When everything settles, Jones 3.05 ERA is supported by a 2.92 xFIP and 2.82 SIERA.

Based on this, it's fair to ask why my rest-of-season ERA is so much higher? Again, we don't know what to expect in terms of strikeouts and walks, but my experience suggests a 22-year-old freshman will be challenged to maintain a 29.4% strikeout rate and 4.3% walk rate. His 25.1% K-BB% is the sixth best among qualified starters. I just have a hard time trusting Jones to carry that through the rest of the season. Now get off my lawn.

The other factor is workload. Regardless of how he fares, at some point the Pittsburgh Pirates will hit the brakes.

Pitcher	YTD	ADP	ROS	ERA	WHIP
Javier Assad	17	186	73	3.89	1.27

Assad's skills mirror those that he demonstrated last season in 109.1 innings. He posted a 3.05 ERA, but with a 4.35 xFIP and 4.41 SIERA. He was saved by a fortunate 83.8% left on base mark. With similar skills and a slightly lower home run rate, Assad is again over his skis with a 1.70 ERA, buoyed by an even luckier 88.2% left on base clip.

This season, Assad's xFIP is 4.19 to pair with a 4.25 SIERA. This indicates I expect better skills, since my projected ERA is 3.89. The problem is I don't. Assad's swinging and called strike rates portend a dip in his current pedestrian 21.1% strikeout rate.

Yes, I trust the system, but I'm take the over on a 3.89 ERA. if Assad's ERA indeed is closer to the current estimators, I'll take a look at why the projected ERA is low, and hopefully improve the algorithms.

As a bonus, here are the numbers for five honorable mentions. I'll be happy to expound in the comments below. 

Pitcher	YTD	ADP	ROS	ERA	WHIP
Clarke Schmidt	18	107	65	3.78	1.25
Brady Singer	19	157	44	3.67	1.23
Ronel Blanco	23	163	94	3.86	1.30
Garrett Crochet	25	111	82	3.61	1.26
Erick Fedde	27	122	99	4.04	1.28