Fantasy coaches love workhorse running backs, and get nervous at any talk about limiting that workload. So a recent quote from Kyle Shanahan regarding Christian McCaffrey is one that gets your attention. We want him healthy, but we also want him busy.
In a story at The Athletic, Shanahan says "We have to protect Christian from himself. He doesn’t like to ever come out no matter what the situation is and I do think that’s something we could protect him with more. You’d like to take some of that off of him and give it to other guys also.”
McCaffrey was the Offensive Player of the Year last year, and the fantasy MVP. He'll go as the No. 1 overall pick in most drafts this year, too. He had 339 touches last season (not counting the playoffs). How worried should people be about him having a reduced workload this year, either by choice or because he breaks down?
I pulled the numbers for all running backs with at least 300 total touches (runs-receptions) in the last 10 years. In 2023, McCaffrey was one of six such backs. (The others: Mixon, Henry, Pollard, Etienne and Rachaad White.). From 2013 to 2022, there were 61 such backs.
The numbers a year later for those guys were fairly encouraging. Nearly half of them (29) came back and finished in the top 15 at the position in PPR leagues a year later. Twenty-four were RB1s (top 12 at their position).
Two of the biggest successes -- coming back and finishing as the No. 1 fantasy back a year later -- were McCaffrey himself, who did it in 2019 and then again last season.
Table shows those 300-touch backs from the last 10 years, with their numbers (and PPR finish) one year later. Guys who finished in the top 12 at the position are in bold.
300-TOUCH RUNNING BACKS, ONE YEAR LATER (2013-2023) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Run | No | Rec | TD | Next | Rk |
2013 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 1339 | 74 | 594 | 12 | 1038-102-808-10 | 3 |
2013 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 1257 | 36 | 316 | 14 | 1306-37-367-17 | 4 |
2013 | Eddie Lacy, G.B. | 1178 | 35 | 257 | 11 | 1139-42-427-13 | 6 |
2013 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 1287 | 70 | 693 | 19 | 1033-40-291-14 | 7 |
2013 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 1607 | 52 | 539 | 11 | 1319-28-155-5 | 12 |
2013 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 1077 | 42 | 345 | 10 | 663-24-151-2 | 39 |
2013 | Ryan Mathews, S.D. | 1255 | 26 | 189 | 7 | 330-9-69-3 | 70 |
2013 | Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 1038 | 60 | 548 | 13 | 148-1-8-1 | 103 |
2013 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 1266 | 29 | 171 | 11 | 75-2-180 | 127 |
2014 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 1038 | 102 | 808 | 10 | 898-44-389-7 | 8 |
2014 | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 1845 | 57 | 416 | 13 | 702-44-322-7 | 15 |
2014 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 1319 | 28 | 155 | 5 | 895-32-292-5 | 17 |
2014 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 1361 | 83 | 854 | 11 | 556-24-136-3 | 49 |
2014 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 1306 | 37 | 367 | 17 | 417-13-80-3 | 61 |
2015 | Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 1056 | 73 | 578 | 14 | 1079-54-462-13 | 6 |
2015 | Latavius Murray, Oak. | 1066 | 41 | 232 | 6 | 788-33-264-12 | 13 |
2015 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 1402 | 33 | 271 | 7 | 421-14-134-3 | 55 |
2015 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 1485 | 30 | 222 | 11 | 72-3-80 | 122 |
2016 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 885 | 43 | 327 | 6 | 1305-64-788-19 | 1 |
2016 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 1268 | 75 | 616 | 9 | 1291-85-655-11 | 2 |
2016 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 1631 | 32 | 363 | 16 | 983-26-269-9 | 12 |
2016 | Frank Gore, Ind. | 1025 | 38 | 277 | 8 | 961-29-245-4 | 20 |
2016 | DeMarco Murray, Ten. | 1287 | 53 | 377 | 12 | 659-39-266-7 | 21 |
2016 | LeGarrette Blount, N.E. | 1161 | 7 | 38 | 18 | 766-8-50-3 | 45 |
2016 | David Johnson, Ari. | 1239 | 80 | 879 | 20 | 23-6-670 | 110 |
2017 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 1305 | 64 | 788 | 19 | 1251-59-580-21 | 3 |
2017 | Melvin Gordon, LAC | 1105 | 58 | 476 | 12 | 885-50-490-14 | 8 |
2017 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 1327 | 53 | 455 | 11 | 824-26-378-14 | 12 |
2017 | LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 1138 | 59 | 448 | 8 | 514-34-238-3 | 39 |
2017 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 1040 | 36 | 302 | 10 | 439-22-185-6 | 41 |
2017 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 1291 | 85 | 655 | 11 | Didn't play | |
2018 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 1098 | 107 | 867 | 13 | 1387-116-1005-19 | 1 |
2018 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 1434 | 77 | 567 | 9 | 1357-54-420-14 | 3 |
2018 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 1307 | 91 | 721 | 15 | 1003-52-438-8 | 11 |
2018 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 1251 | 59 | 580 | 21 | 857-31-207-14 | 14 |
2018 | David Johnson, Ari. | 940 | 50 | 446 | 10 | 345-36-370-6 | 36 |
2019 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 1135 | 53 | 519 | 13 | 1557-44-361-17 | 2 |
2019 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 1540 | 18 | 206 | 18 | 2027-19-114-17 | 3 |
2019 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 1357 | 54 | 420 | 14 | 979-52-338-8 | 9 |
2019 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 1494 | 36 | 278 | 8 | 1067-16-150-12 | 11 |
2019 | Chris Carson, Sea. | 1230 | 37 | 266 | 9 | 681-37-287-9 | 20 |
2019 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 1152 | 76 | 522 | 3 | 367-36-233-6 | 35 |
2019 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 1137 | 35 | 287 | 8 | 428-21-138-4 | 48 |
2019 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 1387 | 116 | 1005 | 19 | 225-17-149-6 | 54 |
2019 | LeVeon Bell, NYJ | 789 | 66 | 461 | 4 | 328-16-138-2 | 63 |
2020 | Josh Jacobs, L.V. | 1065 | 33 | 238 | 12 | 872-54-348-9 | 12 |
2020 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 1557 | 44 | 361 | 17 | 1159-34-224-6 | 16 |
2020 | David Montgomery, Chi. | 1070 | 54 | 438 | 10 | 849-42-301-7 | 19 |
2020 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 2027 | 19 | 114 | 17 | 937-18-154-10 | 22 |
2021 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 1205 | 42 | 314 | 16 | 814-60-441-9 | 11 |
2021 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 1200 | 74 | 467 | 10 | 1034-41-229-10 | 14 |
2021 | Antonio Gibson, Was. | 1037 | 42 | 294 | 10 | 546-46-353-5 | 28 |
2021 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 1811 | 40 | 360 | 20 | 861-28-143-4 | 33 |
2022 | Christian McCaffrey, 2TM | 1139 | 85 | 741 | 13 | 1459-67-564-21 | 1 |
2022 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 1538 | 33 | 398 | 13 | 1167-28-214-12 | 9 |
2022 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 1312 | 57 | 338 | 10 | 962-41-280-10 | 13 |
2022 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 1034 | 41 | 229 | 10 | 1035-29-170-8 | 23 |
2022 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | 915 | 107 | 722 | 18 | 628-51-436-6 | 24 |
2022 | Josh Jacobs, L.V. | 1653 | 53 | 400 | 12 | 805-37-296-6 | 27 |
2022 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 1173 | 39 | 295 | 10 | 214-15-780 | 70 |
2022 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 1525 | 27 | 239 | 13 | 170-4-210 | 89 |
2023 | Christian McCaffrey, S.F. | 1459 | 67 | 564 | 21 | ? | ? |
2023 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 1167 | 28 | 214 | 12 | ? | ? |
2023 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 1034 | 52 | 376 | 12 | ? | ? |
2023 | Rachaad White, T.B. | 990 | 64 | 549 | 9 | ? | ? |
2023 | Tony Pollard, Dall. | 1005 | 55 | 311 | 6 | ? | ? |
2023 | Travis Etienne, Jac. | 1008 | 58 | 476 | 12 | ? | ? |
If we move the touch threshold higher (to where McCaffrey, including playoffs, finished), the percentages were similar, though with a smaller sample set. There have been eight backs with 375 touches in a season over the past decade. Four of them came back and finished in the top 15 at the position a year later, two in the top 30. One of the exceptions was 2017 LeVeon Bell, who didn't play at all, sitting out the year in a messy contract dispute.
I'm drafting McCaffrey No. 1 overall. I can see the 49ers trying to limit his workload, but I doubt they'll do it enough to make any other back more likely to finish as the top player at the position. Injuries are a concern, but no more for him than anyone else I could take there.
--Andy Richardson