It's the time of the offseason where you get some players saying some nutty things. Guys are going to go over 2,000 receiving yards, or something like that. Or yesterday's story that Evan Engram is going to make more explosive plays.
Engram is a PPR goldmine at the tight end position. His 114 receptions last year are 2nd-most by a player at the position all-time, trailing only Zach Ertz (116 back in 2018, also with Doug Pederson on the sidelines). But explosive plays? That seems a lot less likely.
In two of the past three years, Engram has averaged under 9 yards per reception. He was at just 8.5 a year ago, better than only three tight ends to catch at least 25 passes (one of them was the aging Ertz). Fewer than 8 percent of his 114 catches went for even 20 yards. That ratio of 7.9% was better than only five of the league's 33 tight ends with 30 receptions. He'll be playing in the same offense with the same head coach, offensive coordinator and quarterback.
| TIGHT END EXPLOSIVE PLAYS RATIO, 2023 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | 20+ | 40+ | Pct/20+ |
| George Kittle, S.F. | 65 | 1020 | 15.7 | 6 | 18 | 3 | 27.7% |
| Noah Fant, Sea. | 32 | 414 | 12.9 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 21.9% |
| Isaiah Likely, Balt. | 30 | 411 | 13.7 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 20.0% |
| Juwan Johnson, N.O. | 37 | 368 | 10.0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 18.9% |
| Mark Andrews, Balt. | 45 | 544 | 12.1 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 17.8% |
| Kylen Granson, Ind. | 30 | 368 | 12.3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16.7% |
| Tucker Kraft, G.B. | 31 | 355 | 11.5 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 16.1% |
| Darren Waller, NYG | 52 | 552 | 10.6 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 15.4% |
| David Njoku, Cle. | 81 | 882 | 10.9 | 6 | 12 | 2 | 14.8% |
| Luke Musgrave, G.B. | 34 | 352 | 10.4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 14.7% |
| T.J. Hockenson, Min. | 95 | 960 | 10.1 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 13.7% |
| Kyle Pitts, Atl. | 53 | 667 | 12.6 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 13.2% |
| Travis Kelce, K.C. | 93 | 984 | 10.6 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 12.9% |
| Tyler Higbee, LAR | 47 | 495 | 10.5 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 12.8% |
| Cade Otton, T.B. | 47 | 455 | 9.7 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 12.8% |
| Cole Kmet, Chi. | 73 | 719 | 9.9 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 12.3% |
| Dalton Schultz, Hou. | 59 | 635 | 10.8 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 11.9% |
| Tyler Conklin, NYJ | 61 | 621 | 10.2 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 11.5% |
| Jake Ferguson, Dall. | 71 | 761 | 10.7 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 11.3% |
| Trey McBride, Ari. | 81 | 825 | 10.2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 11.1% |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo, Ten. | 54 | 528 | 9.8 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 11.1% |
| Dallas Goedert, Phil. | 59 | 592 | 10.0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 10.2% |
| Pat Freiermuth, Pitt. | 32 | 308 | 9.6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9.4% |
| Sam LaPorta, Det. | 86 | 889 | 10.3 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 9.3% |
| Durham Smythe, Mia. | 35 | 366 | 10.5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 8.6% |
| Jonnu Smith, Atl. | 50 | 582 | 11.6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 8.0% |
| Evan Engram, Jac. | 114 | 963 | 8.5 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 7.9% |
| Gerald Everett, LAC | 51 | 411 | 8.1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7.8% |
| Tanner Hudson, Cin. | 39 | 352 | 9.0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7.7% |
| Dalton Kincaid, Buff. | 73 | 673 | 9.2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6.8% |
| Logan Thomas, Was. | 55 | 496 | 9.0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 5.5% |
| Hunter Henry, N.E. | 42 | 419 | 10.0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4.8% |
Nothing against Engram, who I think will be on a lot of Fantasy Index teams. We have him 5th in PPR leagues, ahead of 2-3 guys (Kittle, Pitts, Kincaid) that I think are being selected ahead of him in a lot of drafts.
But we have him several spots lower than that in non-PPR scoring, and not even a starter in TD-only, for those still playing in those leagues. Engram hasn't scored more than 4 TDs in a season since his rookie season of 2017. If I'm looking for explosive players or big touchdown numbers, I'll be looking elsewhere.
--Andy Richardson