in our Internet Update, available now, there's some discussion of the Chicago backfield. D'Andre Swift was signed and is being paid to start, and is the best bet. But will he be the best value? That remains to be seen.
Some will recall last preseason when some were very high on Swift with the Eagles, and we were favoring Kenneth Gainwell. For one week, when Gainwell started in the win over New England and Swift barely got on the field, we were right. Then Gainwell got hurt, Swift blew up for 305 rushing yards the next two weeks, and we looked bad. But barely had the Swift victory laps commenced before Swift proceeded to labor through a 10-game stretch where he averaged just 64 total yards and scored 3 TDs.
So I'm not sure anyone was right on Swift last year. He helped lineups a few weeks, but hurt them far more often. That Tush Push play certainly killed his value (and it's part of the reason why I'm content letting others select Saquon Barkley early in drafts), and the Eagles kind of soured on him. The Bears are paying him like a starter (3 years, $24 million), and some will doubtless take the plunge.
But is he much better than either Khalil Herbert or Roschon Johnson? I'm not sure, and I haven't seen enough good to spend a draft pick on it.
One area where he seems to be lacking is in the passing game. This despite Matt Eberflus describing him as a weapon in that area, saying "he's really quick, he's a weapon out of the backfield, which is outstanding for our passing game and it's going to create some mismatches for us. We can split him out wide and run the full route tree, so he's exciting to watch."
But based on the past three seasons, Swift has been below-average in terms of actually turning the passes thrown his way into receptions. He's caught just 75 percent of the passes thrown his way, which is in the bottom 10 among the 33 running backs to see at least 100 targets the past three years. That doesn't make him a terrible receiver, since some of that metric can be placed at the feet of the quarterback. But I don't think it's a given he's particularly good at it, and the fact that both Detroit and Philadelphia have shipped him out the last two offseasons doesn't say great things about his odds of success working with a rookie quarterback.
| RUNNING BACK CATCH RATE, 2021-2023 (100 TARGETS) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Ctch% | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD |
| Rachaad White | 89.1 | 128 | 114 | 839 | 5 |
| Leonard Fournette | 85.0 | 167 | 142 | 977 | 5 |
| James Conner | 84.6 | 130 | 110 | 840 | 6 |
| Samaje Perine | 83.3 | 138 | 115 | 938 | 5 |
| Jaylen Warren | 83.2 | 107 | 89 | 584 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 82.4 | 187 | 154 | 1131 | 8 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 81.5 | 232 | 189 | 1648 | 13 |
| Antonio Gibson | 80.5 | 169 | 136 | 1036 | 7 |
| David Montgomery | 80.0 | 115 | 92 | 734 | 1 |
| Javonte Williams | 79.7 | 133 | 106 | 620 | 5 |
| Tony Pollard | 79.2 | 168 | 133 | 1019 | 3 |
| Josh Jacobs | 79.1 | 182 | 144 | 1044 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 78.8 | 118 | 93 | 792 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 78.3 | 180 | 141 | 1019 | 12 |
| AJ Dillon | 77.8 | 108 | 84 | 742 | 2 |
| Alvin Kamara | 77.8 | 230 | 179 | 1395 | 8 |
| Najee Harris | 77.8 | 185 | 144 | 866 | 6 |
| Austin Ekeler | 77.3 | 295 | 228 | 1805 | 14 |
| Devin Singletary | 77.1 | 140 | 108 | 701 | 2 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 77.1 | 157 | 121 | 782 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 76.4 | 123 | 94 | 811 | 14 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 76.3 | 114 | 87 | 656 | 3 |
| Alexander Mattison | 76.2 | 101 | 77 | 511 | 5 |
| D'Andre Swift | 75.6 | 197 | 149 | 1055 | 6 |
| Breece Hall | 75.4 | 126 | 95 | 809 | 5 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 75.2 | 109 | 82 | 631 | 2 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 75.2 | 153 | 115 | 692 | 4 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 74.1 | 116 | 86 | 605 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 73.2 | 112 | 82 | 708 | 6 |
| Miles Sanders | 72.3 | 101 | 73 | 390 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 72.1 | 140 | 101 | 714 | 1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 72.0 | 193 | 139 | 881 | 6 |
| Dalvin Cook | 70.4 | 125 | 88 | 597 | 2 |
Table compiled using search tools at pro-football-reference.com. Interestingly, Swift's replacement in Philadelphia, Barkley, grades out even worse in this regard. (So does his predecessor, Miles Sanders.) Barkley wasn't working with great quarterbacking in New York, of course. But I think it's fair to wonder how that marriage is going to work out.
Back to Swift. I think it will be interesting to see how things work out for him in Chicago. Neither Herbert nor Johnson saw enough targets to make this table, but their last year rates suggest that Johnson might prove to be the most effective in this backfield. Herbert caught just 20 of 31 passes thrown his way (64.5 percent), but Johnson was very effective, corralling 34 of 40 (85 percent, which would show up right near the top of the table).
In general, I'm more interested in spending a very late pick on Johnson than an early or mid-round pick on Swift.
--Andy Richardson