Ian Allan

July 28, 2024

Bad defenses

Testing the theory that the best offense is a bad defense

In a Mailbag question on Thursday, I was asked about the strategy of trying to select players from teams with bad defenses. The theory being that if those teams allow a bunch of points, they’ll be picking up a bunch of cheap yards in the second halves of games. It’s not a strategy I’ve ever employed, but a couple of other readers chimed in to support it, so it’s one I wanted to look at in more detail.

I’m not going to spend an entire day on it, but I pulled up some games to compare, using the search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com. (And these are games, rather than season totals, which should amplify the advantage of allowing more points – these are the games where defenses actually allowed more points, rather than just tending to allow more points.) What I found indicates to me that it’s better to be focusing on the players themselves, rather than what the defensive players on their teams will be doing against other offenses.

There were 50 games last year in which NFL teams allowed at least 35 points. In those games, their offenses (the ones going against the teams that scored at least 35) averaged 339 yards, with 122 touchdowns.

There also 50 games last year in which teams allowed exactly 20 points. In those games, their offenses averaged 341 yards, with 121 offenses – pretty much the same. (Weird, by the way, that there were exactly 50 games with 20 points allowed, and exactly 50 with 35-plus, but that’s how it played out.)

Conclusion: While maybe at times you think a game will be up-tempo or higher scoring, I don’t see any validity in selecting players based on the quality of that team’s defense.

The supporting documentation appears below, with the numbers from those 100 games. I’m listing the 100 games with passing stats first, followed by the same 100 games with their rushing production.

For passing, there is a slight tweak towards increased passing production. In the 100 games that teams allowed at least 35 points, those teams averaged 235 passing yards, with 81 touchdown passes. That’s 7 more yards than the 20-point games, and with 6 more touchdown passes (1.62 TD passes per game, versus 1.50).

In the chart below, the teams that allowed at least 35 points are in bold, and I’ve got the games in descending order, using 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards.

PASSING PRODUCTION (BAD DEFENSES AND AVERAGE DEFENSES)
Team	Opp	Result	Com	Att	Pct	Yards	TD	Int	FPG
Houston	T.B.	W 39-37	30	42	71.4	443	5	0	74.3
Miami	Den.	W 70-20	25	28	89.3	376	5	0	67.6
Washington	Phil.	L 31-38	39	52	75.0	388	4	1	62.8
Tampa Bay	at G.B.	W 34-20	22	28	78.6	353	4	0	59.3
LA Chargers	Det.	L 38-41	27	40	67.5	323	4	1	56.3
Buffalo	Mia.	W 48-20	21	25	84.0	310	4	0	55.0
Dallas	LAR	W 43-20	27	34	79.4	285	4	1	52.5
Seattle	at Dall.	L 35-41	23	41	56.1	334	3	1	51.4
Chicago	at Was.	W 40-20	15	29	51.7	273	4	0	51.3
Detroit	Sea.	L 31-37*	28	35	80.0	316	3	1	49.6
Cleveland	NYJ	W 37-20	19	29	65.5	301	3	1	48.1
Washington	Chi.	L 20-40	37	51	72.5	359	2	1	47.9
Cincinnati	at Ari.	W 34-20	36	46	78.3	287	3	1	46.7
LA Rams	at Balt.	L 31-37*	23	41	56.1	282	3	0	46.2
Denver	Was.	L 33-35	18	32	56.3	277	3	1	45.7
Dallas	Sea.	W 41-35	29	41	70.7	275	3	0	45.5
Carolina	at Sea.	L 27-37	34	58	58.6	334	2	0	45.4
Detroit	at LAC	W 41-38	23	33	69.7	333	2	0	45.3
Buffalo	at Phil.	L 34-37*	29	51	56.9	332	2	1	45.2
Minnesota	T.B.	L 17-20	33	44	75.0	328	2	1	44.8
Atlanta	at N.O.	L 17-48	25	34	73.5	311	2	2	43.1
Detroit	Min.	W 30-20	23	32	71.9	311	2	0	43.1
Carolina	at Det.	L 24-42	25	41	61.0	243	3	2	42.3
Green Bay	at Chi.	W 38-20	15	27	55.6	237	3	0	41.7
Green Bay	LAC	W 23-20	27	40	67.5	295	2	0	41.5
LA Chargers	at L.V.	L 21-63	23	32	71.9	234	3	1	41.4
Indianapolis	Cle.	L 38-39	15	23	65.2	288	2	1	40.8
New Orleans	at Hou.	L 13-20	33	51	64.7	341	1	1	40.1
Kansas City	at Min.	W 27-20	31	41	75.6	266	2	0	38.6
Arizona	at S.F.	L 16-35	28	41	68.3	257	2	0	37.7
Tampa Bay	at Hou.	L 37-39	21	30	70.0	251	2	0	37.1
Indianapolis	at Jac.	L 20-37	33	55	60.0	310	1	3	37.0
LA Rams	Was.	W 28-20	25	33	75.8	249	2	0	36.9
Baltimore	Cin.	W 34-20	16	26	61.5	248	2	0	36.8
Seattle	Cle.	W 24-20	23	37	62.2	248	2	2	36.8
Philadelphia	Ari.	L 31-35	19	24	79.2	184	3	1	36.4
Cleveland	at LAR	L 19-36	23	44	52.3	240	2	1	36.0
Detroit	at Dall.	L 19-20	20	35	57.1	295	1	2	35.5
Denver	at Mia.	L 20-70	23	38	60.5	294	1	1	35.4
Jacksonville	Hou.	L 17-37	29	42	69.0	288	1	1	34.8
Philadelphia	S.F.	L 19-42	28	48	58.3	287	1	0	34.7
Miami	Dall.	W 22-20	24	37	64.9	284	1	0	34.4
Miami	at Balt.	L 19-56	22	38	57.9	221	2	2	34.1
LA Chargers	Dall.	L 17-20	22	37	59.5	219	2	1	33.9
Jacksonville	at Buff.	W 25-20	25	37	67.6	278	1	0	33.8
Philadelphia	at NYJ	L 14-20	28	45	62.2	268	1	3	32.8
Indianapolis	N.O.	L 27-38	23	41	56.1	207	2	1	32.7
Kansas City	Buff.	L 17-20	25	43	58.1	264	1	1	32.4
Las Vegas	at Mia.	L 13-20	24	41	58.5	260	1	3	32.0
NY Jets	at Cle.	L 20-37	32	45	71.1	253	1	1	31.3
Miami	at Buff.	L 20-48	25	35	71.4	251	1	1	31.1
Detroit	at K.C.	W 21-20	22	35	62.9	250	1	0	31.0
Denver	Min.	W 21-20	27	35	77.1	249	1	0	30.9
Seattle	at Ari.	W 21-20	16	28	57.1	189	2	0	30.9
Houston	Cle.	L 22-36	26	49	53.1	178	2	2	29.8
Indianapolis	at Hou.	W 31-20	25	33	75.8	227	1	0	28.7
Kansas City	L.V.	L 14-20	28	45	62.2	223	1	1	28.3
New England	Was.	L 17-20	24	44	54.5	220	1	1	28.0
Arizona	LAR	L 14-37	27	45	60.0	219	1	0	27.9
Indianapolis	L.V.	W 23-20	15	23	65.2	215	1	0	27.5
Tennessee	Jac.	W 28-20	17	27	63.0	152	2	1	27.2
LA Rams	at S.F.	W 21-20	17	24	70.8	149	2	1	26.9
Washington	at Dall.	L 10-45	28	44	63.6	268	0	1	26.8
Jacksonville	Ind.	W 37-20	20	30	66.7	148	2	1	26.8
Denver	at Det.	L 17-42	18	32	56.3	204	1	0	26.4
Arizona	S.F.	L 29-45	26	39	66.7	202	1	2	26.2
LA Chargers	Mia.	L 34-36	23	33	69.7	200	1	0	26.0
Kansas City	at NYJ	W 23-20	18	30	60.0	197	1	2	25.7
Detroit	at Balt.	L 6-38	33	53	62.3	253	0	1	25.3
LA Chargers	Balt.	L 10-20	29	44	65.9	193	1	1	25.3
Pittsburgh	Jac.	L 10-20	25	43	58.1	191	1	2	25.1
Detroit	at G.B.	W 34-20	19	28	67.9	190	1	1	25.0
Chicago	G.B.	L 20-38	24	37	64.9	189	1	1	24.9
LA Rams	at Dall.	L 20-43	18	32	56.3	188	1	1	24.8
Carolina	at Mia.	L 21-42	24	39	61.5	188	1	0	24.8
Las Vegas	at Buff.	L 10-38	16	24	66.7	185	1	2	24.5
Indianapolis	T.B.	W 27-20	24	41	58.5	239	0	1	23.9
Tennessee	at Pitt.	L 16-20	22	39	56.4	235	0	1	23.5
Atlanta	at Chi.	L 17-37	13	33	39.4	173	1	4	23.3
Philadelphia	at N.E.	W 25-20	22	33	66.7	154	1	0	21.4
Chicago	at Cle.	L 17-20	19	40	47.5	148	1	2	20.8
Tampa Bay	Det.	L 6-20	19	37	51.4	205	0	1	20.5
New England	at Dall.	L 3-38	16	30	53.3	200	0	2	20.0
Dallas	at S.F.	L 10-42	16	26	61.5	140	1	3	20.0
Carolina	N.O.	L 17-20	22	33	66.7	139	1	0	19.9
Washington	Dall.	L 10-38	20	28	71.4	130	1	2	19.0
Tennessee	Sea.	L 17-20	19	27	70.4	125	1	0	18.5
NY Giants	at Dall.	L 17-49	14	27	51.9	61	2	1	18.1
Tennessee	at T.B.	L 6-20	19	39	48.7	167	0	1	16.7
Cleveland	at Ind.	W 39-38	16	37	43.2	166	0	2	16.6
Chicago	at K.C.	L 10-41	11	22	50.0	87	1	1	14.7
Philadelphia	at Sea.	L 17-20	17	31	54.8	143	0	2	14.3
Atlanta	at Det.	L 6-20	21	38	55.3	139	0	0	13.9
Washington	Buff.	L 3-37	19	29	65.5	125	0	4	12.5
Seattle	at Balt.	L 3-37	13	28	46.4	123	0	1	12.3
Arizona	at Sea.	L 10-20	20	34	58.8	122	0	0	12.2
LA Rams	at G.B.	L 3-20	13	28	46.4	119	0	1	11.9
Arizona	at Was.	L 16-20	21	30	70.0	114	0	0	11.4
Washington	Mia.	L 15-45	12	23	52.2	107	0	1	10.7
NY Giants	Dall.	L 0-40	17	30	56.7	63	0	2	6.3

For rushing production, teams tended to be more productive when they weren’t allowing a bunch of points. The teams allowing 20 points (which is slightly better than the league average) averaged 9 more rushing yards per game, and with a 46-41 edge in touchdowns (per game, that’s .92 to .82).

Again, the teams allowing a bunch of points are in bold. There are 50 games of each (50 with teams that allowed 35-plus points, and 50 where they allowed exactly 20 points).

RUSHING PRODUCTION (BAD DEFENSES AND AVERAGE DEFENSES)
Team	Opp	Result	Att	Yds	Avg	TDR	FPG
Miami	Den.	W 70-20	43	350	8.1	5	65.0
LA Chargers	Mia.	L 34-36	40	233	5.8	3	41.3
Detroit	at G.B.	W 34-20	43	211	4.9	3	39.1
Detroit	at LAC	W 41-38	31	200	6.5	3	38.0
Arizona	S.F.	L 29-45	30	234	7.8	2	35.4
Indianapolis	Cle.	L 38-39	40	168	4.2	3	34.8
Indianapolis	T.B.	W 27-20	27	155	5.7	3	33.5
Cleveland	at Ind.	W 39-38	33	150	4.5	3	33.0
Jacksonville	at Buff.	W 25-20	40	196	4.9	2	31.6
Indianapolis	at Hou.	W 31-20	23	126	5.5	3	30.6
Philadelphia	at Sea.	L 17-20	38	178	4.7	2	29.8
Tennessee	Jac.	W 28-20	26	175	6.7	2	29.5
Buffalo	at Phil.	L 34-37*	40	173	4.3	2	29.3
Baltimore	Cin.	W 34-20	31	157	5.1	2	27.7
Kansas City	at NYJ	W 23-20	35	204	5.8	1	26.4
Miami	at Buff.	L 20-48	19	142	7.5	2	26.2
Washington	Mia.	L 15-45	28	138	4.9	2	25.8
LA Rams	Was.	W 28-20	37	196	5.3	1	25.6
Indianapolis	N.O.	L 27-38	24	164	6.8	1	22.4
Buffalo	Mia.	W 48-20	29	104	3.6	2	22.4
Tennessee	Sea.	L 17-20	31	162	5.2	1	22.2
Jacksonville	Ind.	W 37-20	29	85	2.9	2	20.5
Tampa Bay	at Hou.	L 37-39	31	81	2.6	2	20.1
Dallas	Sea.	W 41-35	34	136	4	1	19.6
Atlanta	at Chi.	L 17-37	24	134	5.6	1	19.4
Indianapolis	L.V.	W 23-20	29	134	4.6	1	19.4
Seattle	at Dall.	L 35-41	22	72	3.3	2	19.2
Detroit	Min.	W 30-20	23	70	3	2	19.0
Arizona	at Sea.	L 10-20	25	127	5.1	1	18.7
Cleveland	NYJ	W 37-20	28	127	4.5	1	18.7
Detroit	at Dall.	L 19-20	31	125	4	1	18.5
Chicago	G.B.	L 20-38	29	122	4.2	1	18.2
Denver	Was.	L 33-35	23	122	5.3	1	18.2
Chicago	at Was.	W 40-20	32	178	5.6	0	17.8
Detroit	at K.C.	W 21-20	34	118	3.5	1	17.8
Jacksonville	Hou.	L 17-37	27	116	4.3	1	17.6
Seattle	Cle.	W 24-20	17	114	6.7	1	17.4
LA Rams	at S.F.	W 21-20	36	109	3	1	16.9
Washington	at Dall.	L 10-45	27	108	4	1	16.8
Carolina	at Mia.	L 21-42	25	108	4.3	1	16.8
New England	Was.	L 17-20	19	107	5.6	1	16.7
Tennessee	at Pitt.	L 16-20	25	105	4.2	1	16.5
Detroit	Sea.	L 31-37*	27	102	3.8	1	16.2
Green Bay	LAC	W 23-20	28	102	3.6	1	16.2
LA Chargers	Det.	L 38-41	28	98	3.5	1	15.8
Miami	at Balt.	L 19-56	25	154	6.2	0	15.4
LA Rams	at Dall.	L 20-43	24	92	3.8	1	15.2
Green Bay	at Chi.	W 38-20	32	92	2.9	1	15.2
Kansas City	L.V.	L 14-20	25	85	3.4	1	14.5
Detroit	at Balt.	L 6-38	14	84	6	1	14.4
Denver	at Det.	L 17-42	28	83	3	1	14.3
Kansas City	Buff.	L 17-20	18	82	4.6	1	14.2
Philadelphia	at NYJ	L 14-20	22	80	3.6	1	14.0
Seattle	at Ari.	W 21-20	25	138	5.5	0	13.8
Arizona	LAR	L 14-37	15	73	4.9	1	13.3
LA Rams	at Balt.	L 31-37*	30	128	4.3	0	12.8
Kansas City	at Min.	W 27-20	21	67	3.2	1	12.7
Chicago	at K.C.	L 10-41	26	116	4.5	0	11.6
NY Giants	at Dall.	L 17-49	23	111	4.8	0	11.1
NY Giants	Dall.	L 0-40	28	108	3.9	0	10.8
NY Jets	at Cle.	L 20-37	21	107	5.1	0	10.7
Philadelphia	S.F.	L 19-42	18	46	2.6	1	10.6
Arizona	at S.F.	L 16-35	25	105	4.2	0	10.5
Washington	Buff.	L 3-37	13	105	8.1	0	10.5
Indianapolis	at Jac.	L 20-37	17	44	2.6	1	10.4
Carolina	at Sea.	L 27-37	14	44	3.1	1	10.4
Dallas	LAR	W 43-20	26	102	3.9	0	10.2
Carolina	N.O.	L 17-20	19	100	5.3	0	10.0
Carolina	at Det.	L 24-42	23	99	4.3	0	9.9
Tampa Bay	at G.B.	W 34-20	27	99	3.7	0	9.9
Philadelphia	at N.E.	W 25-20	25	97	3.9	0	9.7
Arizona	at Was.	L 16-20	25	96	3.8	0	9.6
Cincinnati	at Ari.	W 34-20	30	93	3.1	0	9.3
LA Chargers	at L.V.	L 21-63	28	92	3.3	0	9.2
Philadelphia	Ari.	L 31-35	23	91	4	0	9.1
Miami	Dall.	W 22-20	26	91	3.5	0	9.1
New Orleans	at Hou.	L 13-20	25	89	3.6	0	8.9
Chicago	at Cle.	L 17-20	27	88	3.3	0	8.8
Cleveland	at LAR	L 19-36	23	87	3.8	0	8.7
LA Chargers	Balt.	L 10-20	19	86	4.5	0	8.6
Washington	Phil.	L 31-38	16	84	5.3	0	8.4
Atlanta	at N.O.	L 17-48	25	78	3.1	0	7.8
Houston	Cle.	L 22-36	16	72	4.5	0	7.2
Pittsburgh	Jac.	L 10-20	18	70	3.9	0	7.0
Denver	at Mia.	L 20-70	20	69	3.5	0	6.9
LA Rams	at G.B.	L 3-20	26	68	2.6	0	6.8
Dallas	at S.F.	L 10-42	19	57	3	0	5.7
Las Vegas	at Buff.	L 10-38	15	55	3.7	0	5.5
New England	at Dall.	L 3-38	23	53	2.3	0	5.3
Houston	T.B.	W 39-37	17	53	3.1	0	5.3
LA Chargers	Dall.	L 17-20	23	53	2.3	0	5.3
Washington	Dall.	L 10-38	17	50	2.9	0	5.0
Tampa Bay	Det.	L 6-20	16	46	2.9	0	4.6
Denver	Min.	W 21-20	15	46	3.1	0	4.6
Atlanta	at Det.	L 6-20	20	44	2.2	0	4.4
Tennessee	at T.B.	L 6-20	16	42	2.6	0	4.2
Minnesota	T.B.	L 17-20	17	41	2.4	0	4.1
Las Vegas	at Mia.	L 13-20	16	36	2.3	0	3.6
Washington	Chi.	L 20-40	10	29	2.9	0	2.9
Seattle	at Balt.	L 3-37	15	28	1.9	0	2.8

If Andy Richardson’s defensive projections are accurate, Washington, Arizona and Carolina will allow the most points in the league this year. I don’t see this as reason to be going after guys like Jayden Daniels, Kyler Murray (pictured) and Bryce Young. All those teams have players with some redeeming qualities, but I don’t see the defenses as being particularly relevant.

—Ian Allan

Kyler Murray

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Darrell W. Holt, Mich.

I wanted to let you know I finished my season going 16-0 winning my league, breaking every record in our 19 year history along the way. A special thank you to FI for the insightful knowledge as it provided me much help along the way.

Ryan M. Lynnwood, Wash.

You guys do a great job. I got laughed at by a few people at the draft but they're not laughing now. I'm leading the league in record (8-1) and PF thus far.

John W. Aylett, Va.

And a side note… we've got a re-draft 16-team, 20 players drafted league (drafting water boys by the 17^th round) that I've won 2 years in a row. Nobody's ever done that in 21 years… using your cheat sheet. it's an old school league that used to draft out of piles of magazines.

Thanks again,

Todd S. Grand Junction, Colo.

This is my ninth year competing with my two very savey adult children and their 11 regulars to make it a 14 team draft with a $200 bid limit. Your SuperFanatic package has put me into the 6 team play- offs 4 out of the 8 years and there is no way I could compete with these guys without my cheat sheets! They still have no idea how I can be so lucky every year :-) Cheaters do prosper!!!!

Robert A.

I wanted to thank you for such an amazing product and your customer service. I ordered the wrong date for my update and called to correct the mistake. Your customer service person was very kind, helpful and took care of the issue immediately.

I have used your product for the past 18 years or so… Every now and then I will be tempted and look at what other magazines have to offer, quickly realizing no one comes close.

In addition to the magazine, I started buying the weekly updates years ago when my dad taught me a lesson. The draft came and dad was sitting in the 12 hole for his pick. He told me he felt very comfortable about who he was going to select but would not tell me who his prized gem was to be. I was doubtful. The pick? Priest Holmes (his first dynamite year). I remember telling my dad, "that is a decent pick but they plan to pull him at the goal line." Ever the teacher, dad explained he had purchased the Fantasy Football Index update and read Holmes would get the goal line carries. "Update?", I asked. That was 2002 and Holmes had 21 rushing TDs and Dad won the title! Lesson learned.

By the way, I have made the title game for the last 5 years in a row. Thanks for the detailed, hard work and an great product!

David R. Queen Creek, Ariz.

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