Kind of a rough game from the Giants and Lions last night. There weren't a lot of starters on the field for either team, and few of the backups looked particularly good. Especially when it came to the passing games. (In fairness, it was played in pouring rain, which didn't help anyone.)
With the Lions, no one cares much that Nate Sudfeld and Hendon Hooker combined for just 132 passing yards. Jared Goff will be a lot better, and he'll have his main receivers out there. But with the Giants, there were people who wondered whether Drew Lock could create some kind of quarterback controversy in New York with disappointing Daniel Jones. Initial impressions, after Lock completed 4 of 10 passes for 17 yards with a particularly ugly interception over the middle of the field, are that no, he can't. Nor can Tommy DeVito, who was 8 of 15 for 92 yards after Lock left with a hip injury that isn't considered serious.
Jones will be starting this year, with some minimal fantasy appeal if he's running a lot. But coming off neck and knee injuries that wiped out most of his season, it seems likely he'll be running a lot less. As a passer, he's been pretty modest, which is why it's been hard to understand the enthusiasm for top pick Malik Nabers.
Accounts of Nabers in camp have been positive, with some Odell Beckham comparisons thrown about. He didn't do anything during his 12 snaps last night (in the vicinity of Lock's interception was the closest he came to being involved), but it's just one game. The question is if New York will have a passing game that enables him to shine. That will be difficult.
I went to the files to look at all Giants wide receivers to finish in the top 50 in PPR leagues over the past 10 years. There have been 15, and just four top-30 seasons (which is where Nabers is being drafted), all of which were put up by Beckham.
Of the other 11 seasons where a wide receiver ranked between 30th-50th at the position, what kind of numbers did their quarterback put up? Here are the numbers.
When Beckham was putting up each of his top-30 seasons, Eli Manning was throwing for over 4,000 yards in each of them. He also had a No. 2 receiver in the top 30 or 40 in those years.
Since then, New York's best quarterback has been Jones throwing for around 3,000-3,200 yards. (Last year stats were divided fairly evenly between three different quarterbacks, and their best wideout was No. 47 Darius Slayton.) Their best wide receiver in all of those years was Darius Slayton finishing 37th at the position in Jones' first season. The other three years, Jones produced No. 1 wide receivers ranked 43rd and 50th.
| GIANTS TOP-50 WRS AND THEIR QBS, 2014-2023 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | WR | No-Rec-TD | Rk | QB | PaYds | TD |
| 2014 | Odell Beckham | 91-1305-12 | 8 | Manning | 4410 | 30 |
| 2014 | Rueben Randle | 71-938-3 | 32 | Manning | 4410 | 30 |
| 2015 | Odell Beckham | 96-1450-13 | 5 | Manning | 4432 | 35 |
| 2015 | Rueben Randle | 57-797-8 | 33 | Manning | 4432 | 35 |
| 2016 | Odell Beckham | 101-1367-10 | 4 | Manning | 4027 | 26 |
| 2016 | Sterling Shepard | 65-683-8 | 36 | Manning | 4027 | 26 |
| 2017 | Sterling Shepard | 59-731-2 | 42 | Manning | 3468 | 19 |
| 2018 | Odell Beckham | 77-1052-6 | 15 | Manning | 4299 | 21 |
| 2018 | Sterling Shepard | 66-872-4 | 32 | Manning | 4299 | 21 |
| 2019 | Darius Slayton | 48-740-8 | 37 | Jones | 3027 | 24 |
| 2019 | Golden Tate | 49-676-6 | 45 | Jones | 3027 | 24 |
| 2019 | Sterling Shepard | 57-576-3 | 48 | Jones | 3027 | 24 |
| 2020 | Sterling Shepard | 66-656-4 | 43 | Jones | 2943 | 11 |
| 2022 | Richie James | 57-569-4 | 50 | Jones | 3205 | 15 |
Optimists will point out that in 2019, when Jones quarterbacked most of the season (Eli started four games that year), the Giants had three wide receivers in the top 50. If Nabers is a go-to guy, maybe he can be a couple of those better wideouts rolled into one player.
But unless you believe Jones is going to dramatically step up his passing game this season, it's hard to see Nabers paying off where he's being drafted. If he is the next Beckham right away, it will not be on my team.
--Andy Richardson
