The games are about to start, and you've done your job. You've done the research, you've participated in your drafts and auctions, and everything is ready to go. Pat yourself on the back and enjoy four days (!) of games in week 1. But whatever you do, do not add a new job title this week: Starter analyst.
If you don't know who your starters are, something went wrong on draft day. Hopefully, you have a bench with some depth and the potential to crack the starting lineup. But if you don't have enough faith to start your starters in the very first game, you probably shouldn't have selected them in the first place.
I understand the desire to start the season out right, and every point could count. But I think you're more likely to cost yourself points by over-thinking your lineup decisions, especially when you have no real-game data to back it up. You can't obsess over matchups, because at this point we don't even know what a "good matchup" is. With rare exceptions, the weather in September is unlikely to make a big impact. And if a guy is practicing, he's playing (Ja’Marr Chase isn’t really practicing as of this writing, so keep an eye on that one). If you picked a guy to start for you, let him actually start. Don't assume you made a mistake before any games are played.
Now, you might have a situation where something did go wrong on draft day, and you have a position or flex spot that looks weak. You'll be rotating guys in and out until you find someone who sticks. In that case, analyze away. The time to admit you have a problem is now, so you might as well just accept it and start your worrying early. But aside from that, start your starters and deal with underperformers down the road.
Oh, one other exception: You take a guy, immediately regret it because a better player was available, and somehow that same player falls back to you. That's rare, but it does happen. In that case, you already want the second guy to be a starter so making that change isn't a big deal. But if you're considering a change because someone has a matchup you like, or looked great in the preseason, just put that anxiety on hold for a few weeks. Let your guys prove you right or wrong when the games actually count. It might hurt to see a starter come up short, but it's really frustrating to see a player you targeted and drafted have a great game on your bench because you got cute with the lineup before week 1. Don’t let that happen to you.
The reality is that "who do I start" is actually a weird part of the fun. We all have stories of seasons saved by making a change, or (perhaps more often) feeling snakebit because we "always start the wrong guy." It's part of managing a team, and I’m sure it will happen at some point during the season. I'm just saying that it shouldn't be part of week 1. At least see your bench guys produce when it counts before you elevate them to the starting lineup. Let the starters start, enjoy the games, and let your draft strategy play out on the field. Good luck this week.
Are you already facing a dilemma in your starting lineup? How do you avoid overanalyzing your roster before the season starts? Share your thoughts below.
