What now for Tua Tagovailoa? I don’t expect to see him on a field any time soon. So for those in dynasty leagues, at this point I think we’re comparing him against guys like J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix. It’s not what they’re doing now, but what they might be doing in 2025 and beyond.
I am a McCarthy fan. I liked the brief glimpse we got of him in the preseason, and I like the situation – the pass catchers around him, and Kevin O’Connell drawing up the plays. I expect McCarthy will be a top-20 quarterback on my board heading into the 2025 season. I’m confident he’ll develop.
Similarly, Penix is going to play. (And as poorly as Kirk Cousins played in Week 1, maybe sooner rather than later – either Cousins physically breaks down, or he simply doesn’t play well enough.) If Atlanta is a sputtering, dysfunctional team in December, it would make sense to put Penix on the field for a few starts. If Cousins is playing anything like he did in Week 1, I don’t want to watch 17 weeks of that.
In a dynasty league, I would roster McCarthy or Penix before Tagovailoa. No question. With the Miami quarterback, I’m not positive he’ll play again. Maybe he decides to walk away, or maybe doctors won’t clear him. If and when he gets back on the field, the concussion issue will still be there.
Also consider that Tagovailoa’s game doesn’t translate well for fantasy purposes. He’s not much of a factor as a runner, so his good passing numbers don’t translate quite like you might expect. Last year, for example, he averaged 272 passing yards, with 29 TDs in 17 games, but was barely above average in typical fantasy leagues (14th in per-game production among quarterbacks who started at least half the season).
If we’re in a 12-team dynasty league, with each team carrying about three quarterbacks, I think that makes Tagovailoa (at best) a low-level third option. Below McCarthy and Penix, and I think below even guys like Bryce Young, Gardner Minshew and Daniel Jones.
My current dynasty rankings for quarterbacks appear below. (I turn my attention to dynasty leagues each Saturday, rotating between the four notable positions – QB, RB, WR, TE).
DYNASTY LEAGUE QUARTERBACKS | |||
---|---|---|---|
Rk | Tm | Player | Age |
1. | KC | Patrick Mahomes | 29.0 |
2. | HOU | C.J. Stroud | 22.9 |
3. | BUF | Josh Allen | 28.3 |
4. | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 26.1 |
5. | CIN | Joe Burrow | 27.8 |
6. | GB | Jordan Love | 25.9 |
7. | BAL | Lamar Jackson | 27.7 |
8. | CHI | • Caleb Williams | 22.8 |
9. | IND | Anthony Richardson | 22.3 |
10. | JAC | Trevor Lawrence | 24.9 |
11. | DET | Jared Goff | 29.9 |
12. | DAL | Dak Prescott | 31.1 |
13. | SF | Brock Purdy | 24.7 |
14. | WAS | • Jayden Daniels | 23.7 |
15. | LAC | Justin Herbert | 26.5 |
16. | ARI | Kyler Murray | 27.1 |
17. | TB | Baker Mayfield | 29.4 |
18. | DEN | • Bo Nix | 24.6 |
19. | LAR | Matthew Stafford | 36.6 |
20. | MIN | • J.J. McCarthy | 21.6 |
21. | ATL | • Michael Penix | 24.4 |
22. | NE | • Drake Maye | 22.0 |
23. | MIN | Sam Darnold | 27.3 |
24. | NO | Derek Carr | 33.5 |
25. | SEA | Geno Smith | 33.9 |
26. | ATL | Kirk Cousins | 36.1 |
27. | CLE | Deshaun Watson | 29.0 |
28. | NYJ | Aaron Rodgers | 40.8 |
29. | CAR | Bryce Young | 23.1 |
30. | LV | Gardner Minshew | 29.3 |
31. | NYG | Daniel Jones | 27.3 |
32. | PIT | Justin Fields | 25.5 |
33. | TEN | Will Levis | 25.2 |
34. | MIA | Tua Tagovailoa | 26.5 |
35. | PIT | Russell Wilson | 35.8 |
36. | NE | Jacoby Brissett | 31.8 |
37. | MIA | Skylar Thompson | 27.3 |
38. | SEA | Sam Howell | 24.0 |
39. | CIN | Jake Browning | 28.4 |
40. | CLE | Jameis Winston | 30.7 |
—Ian Allan