As much of a thrill as it is to have real football hit the bloodstream again, let's be real: Week 1 stats are a lot of sound and fury, often signifying nothing. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say a 17-year low in median passing yardage is a byproduct of the McVayification of the league, and not the first horseman of an actual fantasy apocalypse scenario.
Nevertheless, there are performances that beg parsing, and so parse we must. I'm zeroing in on what I considered outlier performances in Week 1; the Jets put up pretty much exactly as much fight as they were supposed to in a brutal road spot against the presumptive NFC favorites; the Buccaneers carved up an overhauled Commanders defense through the air at home, and now figured to do the same in Detroit. There's no urgency to 'reprice' these offenses, near as I can tell.
Below are six week 2 matchups to which I'll be paying particular attention; three where a week 1 darling may earn a semi-permanent upgrade going forward, and three where a clunker in the season opener may retroactively become much more concerning.
THREE UP
New Orleans Saints - at Dallas
Well, that sure shut the "Carr-bashians" (Saints fan Twitter is hilarious) up in a hurry. No other week 1 winner buried the competition as quickly nor as emphatically as the Saints' disposal of the Panthers. The offense looked remade and a strong rushing attack made life a walk in the park for Derek Carr, who completed 19 of his 23 passes for 200 yards, good for a positively Purdy-esque 8.7 yards per attempt that surely made former 49ers farmhand-turned-Saints OC Klint Kubiak quite happy.
But that was at home against the Panthers, who may well go on to reprise their role as the league's resident Triple-A team this season, and the Saints have randomly demolished teams in season openers before (Jameis Winston with one of the all-time great lines in that one: 14-for-20, 148 yards... 5 TD passes). Now the Saints get a ruddy Dallas defense that just flattened a very talented Cleveland team on the road. The Saints may win this game, they may not; doesn't particularly matter. What does matter is that if they can impose even a structurally similar offensive performance here, one where Alvin Kamara (15 carries), Taysom Hill (seven) and Jamaal Williams (a mildly shocking 11) can find anything like the 197 total yards they teamed up for last week, then I'm ready to believe (and by "believe" I of course mean 'start sending lowball offers for Chris Olave').
Minnesota Vikings - vs. San Francisco
There's now officially an elephant in the room here: the Saints and Vikings creamed the Panthers and Giants in their openers, two of the sadder sadsack outfits around. And yes, both the Vikings and Saints are primed to return to Earth in a big way here - the question is whether it's a controlled descent or the Mir space station burning up over the south Pacific.
I think it really could be the former for the Vikings here, albeit for reasons that may not do them much good after this week: I think Vikings HC Kevin O'Connell's may have the 49ers' number a little bit, as I can't readily think of any other explanation for the Vikings beating them last year without Justin Jefferson in what would be Kirk Cousins' final home game as a Viking. Add in the fact that Sam Darnold just spent last summer seeing significant first-team reps for the Niners as their preferred Brock Purdy contingency plan and I think the Vikes should make a game of it. But Darnold and O'Connell won't have cushy game script to lean on in this one; Aaron Jones ain't running for seven yards a pop again. Darnold's going to have to throw it more than last week's paltry 24 attempts. How he looks in the process will give us a nice reality check on last week's gaudy 8.7 yards per attempt.
Indianapolis Colts - at Green Bay
We got the full Anthony Richardson Experience in Indy's home opener, as he threw for a respectable 212 yards and totaled three touchdowns. He also somehow completed only nine passes on the day, and left easily another 100 yards passing on the field with gut-wrenching misfires (costing Adonai Mitchell a sensational NFL debut in the process). Was it week 1 rust, or are the accuracy issues going to remain a major hindrance to his tantalizing fantasy ceiling? A thoroughly rested Packers defense that was solid-not-great last Friday in Sao Paolo should give Richardson a chance to prove he can complete at least close to 60% of his throws in 2024... and for us to adjust accordingly if he doesn't.
THREE DOWN
Cincinnati Bengals - at Kansas City
Something just isn't right here. Even with injury prone malcontent Tee Higgins a late scratch and all-world superstar Ja'Marr Chase fuming about his contract, the Bengals simply should have found a way to win in a home opener against even a feistier than expected Patriots team last week - if for no other reason than the knowledge that a trip to Arrowhead was next on the docket. Not only did the Bengals do the unthinkable, but the offense just looked terrible from wire to wire: Joe Burrow needed 29 throws to pass for a measly 164 yards (5.65 YPA), and the Bengals could muster only 70 yards on the ground. Cincinnati's early schedule is full of cupcake matchups before turning tough as shank steak from weeks 7 thru 14; we desperately, desperately need to be able to start our Bengals with confidence over the next few weeks. We need the Bengals to at least hang with the defending champs here.
Atlanta Falcons - at Philadelphia (MNF)
Few quarterbacks' poor showings last week were made more of than that of Kirk Cousins, and understandably so: he threw for 155 yards and two picks, and his touchdown was to a wide open, literally standing still Kyle Pitts. It was a very rough first day at the office.
But the rumors of Kirko's demise feel highly premature. We're talking about Kirk Cousins, guys - not exactly a guy who's made his money through sheer athleticism. Tom Brady lost to the Giants in the Super Bowl twice because of elite pass rushes, and the Steelers certainly had that in spades last week. As I said in the Thursday podcast, let's just R-E-L-A-X a bit here folks.
That being said the Falcons offense does absolutely need a get right game here, and the schedule makers did them no favors in that regard: Kirk Cousins and his ignominious resume in primetime games go to Philly on Monday night, and at the moment the Eagles being six-point favorites feels like a spread worth throwing a few bucks on [UPDATE: As ever, Vegas knew before we did: A.J. Brown has been ruled out for this game, thus making this spread much more understandable]. But again, wins and losses are not the name of the game here; I'd rather the Falcons lose 34-30 than win 16-13. Even if the Eagles wind up winning by more than one score, we're really just hoping to see the pass volume regress positively and the target shares for Pitts (11.5%, 21st among TEs week 1) and especially Drake London (11.5%, 72nd among WRs) to normalize.
Side note: If they don't, it's officially time to go get Bijan Robinson (71.4% route participation, 3rd among RBs; 19.2% target share, 5th) in full PPR leagues.
Cleveland Browns - at Jacksonville
It brings me no pleasure to pick on the Browns... well, maybe save for one. But Cleveland boasted no fewer than four players taken in the first 10 rounds of most fantasy drafts last month, making them an offense of whom a fair amount was expected in 2024. But the slow-moving trainwreck that is Deshaun Watson is a tide poised to single-handedly scuttle all fantasy ships for however long this doomed arrangement is allowed to persist. On the road against a Jacksonville defense that was touched up for 338 yards through the air last week and is now down both starting cornerbacks, there is a distinct air of Custer's Last Stand for the Deshaun Watson era surrounding this one. I'm not expecting it to go well, but even I have to admit that Watson was once a great player; if ever he were going to grant himself a reprieve with a turn back the clock performance, it needs to be right here, right now.
