Three rookies were among the first 20 quarterbacks selected in a lot of drafts, and all fell hard in their debuts. Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix. Is there any chance of any of these guys turning things around?
The Week 1 results aren’t encouraging. Below see a chart showing the 19 rookie quarterbacks who’ve started at least half the season in the 32-team era, averaging top-20 per game numbers. (These are the rookies in the past who’ve played well enough to merit being on fantasy rosters.)
Of those 19 rookie quarterbacks, only three threw for fewer than 200 yards in their first game. And only five failed to throw a touchdown. (I’ve got those guys tagged with black dots – and 2 for Joe Burrow, since he did neither.)
With our 2024 guys, they finished with lesser passing stats than all 19 of those guys. Williams, Daniels and Nix all passed for fewer than 190 yards, and none of them threw a touchdown. (Daniels and Nix, at least ran for scores).
In the chart below, the column to the right of the players’ names shows where they ranked in their first season (fantasy points per game among guys starting at least half the season).
| ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS WHO FINISHED WITH TOP-20 NUMBERS (first games) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rk | Opp | Result | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int |
| 2003 | Byron Leftwich, Jac. | 20 | at Hou. | L 20-24 | 17 | 36 | 231 | 1 | 3 |
| 2006 | Matt Leinart, Ariz. | 14 | K.C. | L 20-23 | 22 | 35 | 253 | 2 | 1 |
| 2006 | • Vince Young, Ten. | 9 | Dall. | L 14-45 | 14 | 29 | 155 | 1 | 2 |
| 2009 | • Matthew Stafford, Det. | 14 | at N.O. | L 27-45 | 16 | 37 | 205 | 0 | 3 |
| 2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 4 | at Ari. | L 21-28 | 24 | 37 | 422 | 2 | 1 |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin, Was. | 5 | at N.O. | W 40-32 | 19 | 26 | 320 | 2 | 0 |
| 2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 10 | at Chi. | L 21-41 | 23 | 45 | 309 | 1 | 3 |
| 2012 | • Russell Wilson, Sea. | 12 | at Ari. | L 16-20 | 18 | 34 | 153 | 1 | 1 |
| 2015 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 16 | at T.B. | W 42-14 | 13 | 15 | 209 | 4 | 0 |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 17 | Ten. | L 14-42 | 16 | 33 | 210 | 2 | 2 |
| 2016 | • Dak Prescott, Dall. | 17 | NYG | L 19-20 | 25 | 45 | 227 | 0 | 0 |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield, Clev. | 11 | at Oak. | L 42-45 | 21 | 41 | 295 | 2 | 2 |
| 2018 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 13 | LAC | L 20-31 | 18 | 33 | 245 | 1 | 2 |
| 2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 8 | at T.B. | W 32-31 | 23 | 36 | 336 | 2 | 0 |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 13 | Det. | T 27-27 | 29 | 54 | 308 | 2 | 1 |
| 2019 | Gardner Minshew, Jac. | 18 | at Hou. | L 12-13 | 23 | 33 | 213 | 1 | 0 |
| 2020 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 7 | K.C. | L 20-23 | 22 | 33 | 311 | 1 | 1 |
| 2020 | •• Joe Burrow, Cin. | 15 | LAC | L 13-16 | 23 | 36 | 193 | 0 | 1 |
| 2023 | • C.J. Stroud, Hou. | 7 | at Bal. | L 9-25 | 28 | 44 | 242 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | Caleb Williams, Chi. | ? | Ten. | W 24-17 | 14 | 29 | 93 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | Jayden Daniels, Was. | ? | at T.B. | L 20-37 | 17 | 24 | 184 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | Bo Nix, Den. | ? | at Sea. | L 21-26 | 26 | 42 | 138 | 0 | 2 |
I’m not suggesting that anybody give up on these guys just yet. All of these guys can and will run. Williams and Daniels both ran for 21 touchdowns in their final two college seasons. Daniels in particular looks like he’s going to run a ton (I just hope he doesn’t get clobbered).
With Williams, he’s had a wow throw in every game (including the preseason). He looks to me like a guy who’s going to develop into a top-10 quarterback at some point. No doubt. It’s just a question of when.
With Nix, I like the way Sean Payton runs his offenses, emphasizing the pass in the red zone. His last two teams have finished with 29 and 28 touchdown passes, and I think he can get Nix successfully running such as system.
—Ian Allan
