MINNESOTA (vs. Hou.): It’s a little nerve-racking to rely too much on the Vikings, with them expected to be the last-place team in their division entering the season. But they’re playing well, and they’re in their own building.
Here they’re playing an above-average defense, but one that isn’t any better than the San Francisco group that came in last week. The Vikings put up 2 TDs and 3 field goals in that game, with another touchdown lost on a goal-line fumble. We’re projecting most of their key players a little lower than usual, but the general lean is to just use them as you normally would. Texans are favored by 2.5, with an over-under of 46 points.
With the preseason and the first two games in the books, Sam Darnold is looking like he’s for real. Is he as good as Kirk Cousins? Maybe. He’s ripping the deep throws, operating Kevin O’Connell’s offense as it’s designed to run. This is a less-than-ideal situation, with Houston having an up-and-coming defense, but it’s a defense that’s perhaps not quite there year. The Texans ranked 25th against the pass last year. They’ve clamped down on Anthony Richardson and Caleb Williams pretty effectively in the first two weeks, but Darnold is playing better than those guys. Darnold passed for 268 yards and 2 TDs against the 49ers – a fumble away from having a third touchdown. Not a great situation, but logically, he deserves to be slotted ahead of a bunch of other credible quarterbacks.
Justin Jefferson has caught only 4 passes in each game – one big catch away from finishing under 60 yards in both of them. But those long touchdowns count, too, and who’s to say there might not be another one here? Houston gave up 3 long balls in the opener at Indianapolis. Jefferson has a quad injury, but Kevin O’Connell says things are looking promising (that will need to be firmed up later in the week – we’re assuming for now that he’s fine). Not an ideal situation, but he’s Justin Jefferson. Jordan Addison (ankle) hasn’t yet been ruled out, but he looks more likely to return in Week 4. In our rankings for now (and this will be firmed up on Friday) we’re assuming it will instead be Jordan Nailor in that spot. In the last game and half in that role, Nailor has caught 4 passes for 75 yards and 2 TDs. The matchup isn’t ideal, but worth consideration for those looking for a body to plug in for Week 3. We’re ranking Aaron Jones lower than usual. Houston has been tough to run against; it completely shut down Jonathan Taylor in Week 1, holding him to 3.0 yards per carry. Jones ran for 97 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 against a struggling Giants defense, but he carried 9 times for only 32 yards against San Francisco. This Houston defense is a lot more like San Francisco’s than New York’s. And the Vikings will also use Ty Chandler; two games in, he has only 5 fewer carries than Jones. Jones has caught 7 passes for 51 yards in two games. While the Texans under DeMeco Ryans haven’t given up many rushing yards, they’ve allowed more touchdowns on running plays, which is weird (21-19 in 19 games).
Best to pass on the tight ends. Both Josh Oliver and Johnny Mundt will play, but neither is likely to be a big factor. Mundt has caught 2 passes in both games; Oliver caught 2 passes in the opener but wasn’t targeted last week.
With the Vikings looking viable, Will Reichard looks like a decent enough kicker long term. But with this being a quality opponent (and with some uncertainty whether the Vikings are truly for real) we’re putting a conservative grade on him this week.
The Vikings Defense will aggressively get after the quarterback. Most impressively, they harassed Brock Purdy into 6 sacks, an interception and a fumble on Sunday. But C.J. Stroud is a tough matchup, given his playing style. In 19 career starts, he’s thrown only 5 interceptions, and with just 4 lost fumbles. He’s taken 45 sacks in those games, at least, which is only slightly above average.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 3 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst & Super Fanatic Packages. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
Haven't ordered yet? BUY IT NOW! Already a subscriber? LOG IN!